The NFL playoff picture is coming into focus, with teams starting to be eliminated from contention on both the AFC and NFC side of the brackets. Week 15 will bring with it several key matchups, including the Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers Monday Night Football contest to end the week. Will the Dolphins, who have climbed back form a 1-6 start to the season to enter the playoff picture at 6-7 keep an improbable late-season run alive?
Where do we stand heading into Week 15 following last night’s Los Angeles Chargers win over the Philadelphia Eagles to close out Week 14? We break down the current AFC and NFC playoff pictures this morning.
AFC playoff picture
1 – Denver Broncos (11-2, AFC West leader)
2 – New England Patriots (11-2, AFC East leader)
3 – Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4, AFC South leader)
4 – Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, AFC North leader)
5 – Los Angeles Chargers (9-4, Wildcard 1)
6 – Buffalo Bills (9-4, Wildcard 2)
7 – Houston Texans (8-5, Wildcard 3)
Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)
Eliminated:
New York Jets (3-10)
Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
Tennessee Titans (2-11)
Key Week 15 games for Dolphins, AFC standings
- Dolphins at Steelers (MNF): Number one for the Dolphins is they have to keep winning. The AFC North will come down to the Steelers or the Ravens, giving one of them a guaranteed playoff spot while the other falls into the wildcard hunt. The Dolphins beating the Steelers on Monday night would not only improve Miami to 7-7, but also pull the Steelers back to 7-7, giving Miami a pathway ahead of them in the playoff chase.
- Ravens at Bengals: Again, either the Ravens or the Steelers will win the division (assuming the Bengals do not make a sudden surge – which is possible with Joe Burrow back at quarterback). The better pathway for Miami is to have Baltimore claim the AFC North, removing the head-to-head tiebreak the Ravens have over Miami in the wildcard hunt, which would mean a Baltimore win here would be a good thing for the Dolphins.
- Cardinals at Texans: Houston is holding on to the final wild card position right now, but are also fighting with the Jaguars and Colts for the AFC South crown. Miami needs to see losses from whichever of those three does not make it to the division title, and given this is an NFC team versus an AFC team, it makes sense to hope Arizona can pull off the win here.
- Jets at Jaguars: The Jets are already eliminated, but the Jaguars winning is the better move for Miami. Jacksonville has already won nine games and leads the AFC South. Keeping them from falling into the wildcard hunt keeps Miami from having to catch a team that is already three wins ahead of them.
- Chargers at Chiefs: Miami could have used a Los Angeles loss last night, but since that did not happen, it seems likely LA claims the first wildcard spot, while Dolphins fans are hoping for the Chiefs to miss out on the playoffs. A Chargers win helps move Miami ahead of Kansas City (assuming a Dolphins win on MNF).
- Bills at Patriots: Buffalo is three games ahead of Miami and should claim a wildcard spot, but they could still stumble their way out of contention. Whatever happens down the stretch, the Patriots are already on the verge of locking up the AFC East title for this year, and losses for the Bills helps the Dolphins.
- Packers at Broncos: This one does not directly impact Miami, but getting New England into the top spot in the AFC playoff picture might lead them to resting their starters in Week 18 – when Miami might be looking for a win to get into the postseason. In that sense, a Packers win could open the Patriots’ path to the number one seed.
- Colts at Seahawks: The Colts are ahead of the Dolphins in the AFC wildcard hunt, so a loss at the hands of an NFC team keeps this fairly straightforward. The problem is Miami has to pass Indianapolis because the Colts hold the head-t0-head tie break from the Week 1 beatdown of the Dolphins.
AFC playoff seeding tiebreakers
- Broncos over Patriots based on AFC record (7-2 vs. 6-2)
- Chargers over Bills based on AFC record (7-2 vs. 6-3)
- Texans over Colts based on head-to-head results
- Ravens over Chiefs and Dolphins based on AFC record (4-5 vs. 3-5 vs. 3-6)
- Chiefs over Dolphins based on AFC record (3-5 vs. 3-6)
- Jets over Browns based on head-to-head results
- Raiders over Titans based on head-to-head results
NFC playoff picture
1 – Los Angeles Rams (10-3, NFC West leader)
2 – Green Bay Packers (9-3-1, NFC North leader)
3 – Philadelphia Eagles (8-5, NFC East leader)
4 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, NFC South leader)
5 – Seattle Seahawks (10-3, Wildcard 1)
6 – San Francisco 49ers (9-4, Wildcard 2)
7 – Chicago Bears (9-4, Wildcard 3)
Detroit Lions (8-5)
Carolina Panthers (7-6)
Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
Eliminated:
Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
New Orleans Saints (3-10)
Washington Commanders (3-10)
New York Giants (2-11)
NFC playoff seeding tiebreakers
- Rams over Seahawks based on head-to-head results
- Buccaneers over Panthers based on common game results
- 49ers over Bears based on NFC record (8-2 vs. 6-3)
- Cardinals and Saints over Commanders based on NFC record (3-7 vs. 3-7 vs. 1-7); Cardinals over Saints based on head-to-head results
- Saints over Commanders based on NFC record (3-7 vs. 1-7)
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