Let’s take a look at the NFC playoff picture after the Detroit Lions’ big win on Thursday night, and all of Sunday’s action in Week 14.
NFC North standings:
- Packers: 9-3-1
- Bears: 9-4
- Lions: 8-5
- Vikings: 5-8
The Lions are a game-and-a-half back of the Packers, and just a single game back of the Bears. Detroit’s odds of winning the division aren’t completely dead, but they’ll have to finish two games better than the Packers in the final four contests. Here are each team’s remaining games:
Lions:
- at Rams
- vs. Steelers
- at Vikings
- at Bears
Packers:
- at Broncos
- at Bears
- vs. Ravens
- at Vikings
Is it possible for the Lions to go 4-0 and the Packers to go 2-2? Certainly. Is it possible the Lions go 3-1 and the Packers go 1-3? It’s a bit less likely, but I wouldn’t put the odds at zero.
I’ll talk a little more about the Bears in the next section.
NFC playoff picture
Division leaders
- Rams: 10-3
- Packers: 9-3-1
- Eagles: 8-4*
- Buccaneers: 7-6
*Still to play on MNF (Eagles/Chargers)
Wild Card race (top three advance)
5. Seahawks: 10-3
6. 49ers: 9-4
7. Bears: 9-4
8. Lions: 8-5
9. Panthers: 7-6
10. Cowboys: 6-6-1
The Lions didn’t get much help from anyone else. The Seahawks and Rams continue to win, which will make it tough for the Lions to catch either—Detroit trails both by two with four games remaining. Of course, Detroit’s bout with the Rams this upcoming week will give them a chance to cut into that and get a statement win.
Instead, it looks like the Bears remain Detroit’s best shot to jump into a playoff spot. Chicago went all the way from the 1 seed to the 7 seed with the loss on Sunday evening, and now the Lions hold their own destiny again. By winning out, the Lions would guarantee a jump of Chicago, because that would involve a win over the Bears, bringing the two teams even with five losses. In this theoretical running of the table, the Lions would have a series sweep of the Bears, giving them the tiebreaker that would push them ahead. Detroit could very well go 3-1 and still catch Chicago, because their next three games are:
- vs. Browns
- vs. Packers
- at 49ers
If the Bears lose one of those games, the Lions can spare a loss in their next three, and they’d still jump Chicago with a Week 18 win.
The other team to watch is the 49ers, who remain just a game ahead of Detroit. Here’s a look at San Francisco’s remaining schedule:
- vs. Titans
- at Colts
- vs. Bears
- vs. Seahawks
With two tough matchups there, San Francisco is catchable, but there is one complication. The 49ers have a fantastic conference record of 8-2. Detroit sits at only 5-4. That means the Lions need to win all three of their remaining conference games (Rams, Vikings, Bears) in order to tie the 49ers’ conference record, and that only happens if San Francisco loses both games to the Bears and Seahawks. Detroit is in good shape for the next tiebreaker (common games), but if the Lions lose to the Rams next week, it won’t matter; the 49ers will have clinched the tiebreaker over Detroit. So, in that scenario, the Lions will have to finish with a better record than the 49ers.
In other words, just keep rooting against the Bears.
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