This is a huge game on Sunday for both teams. For the Bengals, they’re looking to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Bills are looking to keep pace with the Patriots in the AFC East and solidify their standing in the Wild Card race in the event they don’t win the division.
Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are both incredible this time of the season. It’s hard to bet against either of them with their career records in December and January. That’s what makes this game so crucial for both teams.
There are a lot of great quarterback matchups in the NFL. Burrow-Allen is unique because of their contrasting play styles. Burrow beats defenses with his cerebralness, smarts, and pocket passing, though he will extend plays with his legs. Allen is a physical bulldozer at quarterback and will look to run.
In addition to Burrow-Allen and the stakes this game has, the weather will be peak Buffalo weather in December. It’s supposed to be cold, snowing, and who knows what else.
Let’s look at the players to watch, keys to the game, and score prediction for Sunday.
Quarterback: No. 17, Josh Allen — 6-5, 237 lbs. 8th Season (Wyoming)
Stats: 69.4 Cmp%, 2,832 yds, 19 TD, 10 INT; 78 rush, 409 yds, 11 TD
There is a lot of conversation about what’s wrong with Josh Allen this season. When you look at these numbers, though, they suggest he’s still having a really good season. Yes, he’s thrown 10 interceptions. But when he’s not turning the ball over, he has been playing at an MVP-caliber level. Look at the comeback he led against the Ravens in Week 1, or his six-touchdown performance against the Buccaneers in Week 11. You’ll see that Allen is still playing at a high level this season.
Joe Burrow has a great record in December and January in his career. Allen does, too, though. Since 2020, Allen is 18-3 in December. That is incredible. Not to mention, he’s 14-1 in his last 15 starts in December. The only loss was a 44-42 loss at the Rams in Week 14 of the 2024 Season. Allen still threw for three touchdowns and ran for three touchdowns with no turnovers in that game.
In January and December combined since 2020, Allen’s record is 24-3. He’s called “The Winter Soldier” for a reason. Allen elevates his play when the stakes get higher. Expect him to be at his best on Sunday.
Four Players to Watch on the Bills
1. No. 4: Running Back, James Cook — 5-11, 190 lbs. 4th Season (Georgia)Stats: 231 rush, 1,228 yds, 8 TD; 27 rec., 236 yds, TD
Cook has been an integral part of the Bills’ offense this season, ranking second in the NFL behind only Jonathan Taylor in rushing yards.
The NFL leader with 16 rushing touchdowns last season, Cook has seven games this season with 100+ rushing yards. He’s eclipsed the century mark in each of the Bills’ last two games, with 144 yards on 32 carries at the Steelers last week.
Buffalo’s offense is featuring the running game more than it ever has in Josh Allen’s career. The Bengals’ young linebackers have a tough matchup this week in Cook.
2. No. 86: Tight End, Dalton Kincaid — 6-4, 240 lbs. 3rd Season (Utah)Stats: 29 rec., 448 yds, 4 TD
While Kincaid is questionable with hamstring and knee injuries heading into Sunday, if he plays, the Bills will have their most important weapon in the passing game on the field. Watch the Bills’ offense when Kincaid is on the field. They flow much better offensively when he’s running over the middle or on out routes to the sideline.
Kincaid has two games with 100+ receiving yards this season, and he has had touchdowns in four of the Bills’ first eight games this season. He hasn’t played since the Bills played at the Dolphins in Week 10, but Kincaid playing on Sunday would be a crucial upgrade for the Bills’ offense.
3. No. 47: Cornerback, Christian Benford — 6-1, 205 lbs. 4th Season (Villanova)Stats: 1 INT, 38 TKL, 3 TFL, 1 PD, 1 QBH
Benford is likely to cover Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday, so keep an eye out for him. Chase has shown throughout his career the ability to make even the best cornerbacks look foolish when covering him. That could be the case for Benford on Sunday.
4. No. 24: Safety, Cole Bishop — 6-2, 207 lbs. 2nd Season (Utah)Stats: 3 INT, 7 PD, 2 sacks, 65 TKL, 3 TFL, 2 QBH
Bishop has been playing really well this season, and he can help Benford from the safety position cover Chase. The Bills’ secondary is definitely vulnerable against Chase and the Bengals’ receivers, as we have seen in the previous two matchups between these two teams.
McDermott has had an incredible run in Buffalo as the Bills’ head coach. Before he got to Buffalo in 2017, the Bills hadn’t made the Playoffs since 1999. In his first eight seasons, McDermott led the Bills to the Playoffs seven times. The Bills have also won the AFC East in each of the last five seasons.
Prior to Buffalo, McDermott was the Carolina Panthers’ defensive coordinator from 2011-16. He was the architect of the Panthers’ defense, which included Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, Josh Norman, and Kurt Coleman, and the Panthers played in Super Bowl 50 in February of 2016. The Panthers won three straight NFC South titles from 2013 to 2015.
McDermott spent 10 seasons on the Philadelphia Eagles’ coaching staff from 2001 to 2010, starting as an assistant to the head coach before becoming defensive coordinator in 2009. The Eagles went to four straight NFC Championship Games from 2001 to 2004, winning the NFC Championship in 2004. McDermott was an assistant defensive backs coach that season, coaching Pro Football Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins.
After a four-year playing career at William & Mary, McDermott started his coaching career there as a graduate assistant in 1998. He then spent two seasons as a scouting administrative coordinator with the Eagles before joining Andy Reid’s coaching staff.
Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady (2nd season) — 36 years old
Bengals’ fans know Joe Brady well, with some clamoring for him to be the next head coach should they move on from Zac Taylor after this season. Brady was LSU’s passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach, the brains behind LSU’s lethal, record-setting offense, led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.
Brady came to the Bills in 2022 as their quarterbacks coach, taking over as interim offensive coordinator in November of 2023 and becoming the Bills’ full-time offensive coordinator in 2024.
Prior to Buffalo, he was the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator for two seasons. Before going to LSU, he was an offensive assistant with the New Orleans Saints in 2017 and 2018.
Brady played wide receiver for Williams & Mary and then started his coaching career there as a linebackers coach.
Defensive Coordinator: Bobby Babich (2nd season) — 42 years old
Babich brings a ton of coaching experience, particularly with the Bills. He came to Buffalo in 2017 as an assistant defensive backs coach, serving as safeties coach from 2018 to 2021, then coaching the linebackers for the next two seasons. The success of the Bills’ secondary and linebackers is largely due to Babich and the great players he’s coached at both levels.
Prior to Buffalo, Babich spent two seasons on McDermott’s defensive staff in Carolina before helping the Cleveland Browns’ secondary for the next three seasons. Babich started his coaching career as a graduate assistant at Kent State in 2006. He’s also coached at the college level at Eastern Illinois and Florida International.
Special Teams Coordinator: Chris Tabor (1st season) — 54 years old
Tabor actually has interim head coaching experience in the NFL, taking over the Carolina Panthers in 2023 when Frank Reich was fired after 10 games. The Panthers went 1-6 in those seven games.
Tabor has been a special teams coordinator in the NFL since 2011. He’s been the special teams coordinator for the Browns (7 seasons), the Chicago Bears (4 seasons), and the Carolina Panthers (2 seasons). After not coaching in 2024, Tabor joined the Bills’ coaching staff this season.
Keys to the Game
1. Stop the run
James Cook is becoming just as important an engine to the Bills’ offense as Josh Allen has been. When he is running, the Bills’ offense is cooking. The Bills lead the NFL with 155.7 rushing yards per game this season. While the Bengals’ rush defense has been much better of late, their rookie linebackers, Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight Jr., are going to have a tall task Sunday in containing James Cook.
2. Run the ball
When the Bengals beat the Bills in the Playoffs in 2022, Joe Mixon rushed for over 100 yards. That took the pressure off Joe Burrow in the snow, who was playing behind three backup offensive linemen, and it kept the Bills’ offense off the field. That’s what needs to happen on Sunday. Unleash Chase Brown and make the Bills have to stop the run. The Bills allow 141.3 rushing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL.
3. Cover the middle of the field
If Dalton Kincaid plays on Sunday, he is going to attack the Bengals’ linebackers and safeties. The Bengals’ defense has not been good this season, particularly in covering the middle of the field, including tight ends. They’re going to have to find a way not to let Kincaid, fellow tight end Dawson Knox, and wide receiver Khalil Shakir beat them over the middle.
4. Keep everything in front of you
The way the Bills play offense can be viewed as opposing cornerbacks becoming non-factors. That’s not true. Because if you’re so worried about giving up the middle of the field, you can get beat deep by the corners, then having to react to receivers running vertical down the field. Keep everything in front of you and make the Bills’ explosive offense grind out multiple drives.
Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Bengals 24
There is a very clear path for the Bengals to win the AFC North, and this game Sunday isn’t a must-win. With Joe Burrow, the Bengals can absolutely beat the Bills. The Bengals can beat any team with Burrow.
The Bills, though, have an elite running game with James Cook and Josh Allen. There are too many holes in the Bengals’ defense, and I think the Bills’ offense will expose them.
Regardless, this is going to be a fun game, especially if it snows in Buffalo on Sunday. It’s always fun when Burrow and Allen lead their teams against each other.
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