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Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for Week 14, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Adonai Mitchell and the Jets have a day

Death, taxes and us coming back to AD Mitchell in this column — and for good reason.

We’ve highlighted repeatedly how well he grades across a number of analytical metrics, and now, in his third game as a full-time player, the targets are still flowing his way at a high rate.

Mitchell is earning targets at one of the highest rates in the league and pairs that with one of the deepest average target depths, making his opportunities some of the most valuable from a yardage standpoint.

Now, he draws a Dolphins defense allowing the fourth-highest explosive-play rate in the NFL, an ideal matchup for his downfield role, especially with the market still not fully adjusting to his every-down usage.

SGP Build: 70-1 on DraftKings

• WR Adonai Mitchell: 100+ receiving yards 
• QB Tyrod Taylor: 270+ passing yards
• New York Jets: Moneyline

Cleveland’s defense dominates, creating massive play volume opportunities for the Browns‘ offense.

The core thesis of this bet is simple: the Browns should dominate the Titans to such a degree that Cleveland runs far more plays than usual. Since their bye, the Browns defense has been the best in the NFL in EPA allowed per dropback and disruption rate and ranks third in yards per dropback — pick a metric, and this unit is near the top of the league.

Now they face rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has struggled significantly against disruption. Ward has seen one of the highest disruption rates in the NFL — still below the 57% the Browns have generated since their bye — and he has graded as the third-worst quarterback when pressured. His EPA under disruption is similarly poor, and with the second-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the league, he consistently kills drives in this type of matchup.

That should create ample opportunity for Cleveland’s offense, both passing and rushing, against a Titans defense allowing the fifth-highest yards per attempt and the highest rate of coverage mistakes in the league. On the ground, Tennessee ranks bottom-10 in rush EPA, while Cleveland should funnel a heavy workload to Judkins. The value here lies in the correlation between strong rushing and passing outcomes — all driven by a game environment where Cleveland’s play volume should be meaningfully higher than the market assumes.

SGP Build: 150-1 on DraftKings

• QB Shedeur Sanders: 30+ attempts & 250+ passing yards
• RB Quinshon Judkins: 110+ rushing yards
• Cleveland Browns: – 4.5

Patrick Mahomes mitigates the Texans pass rush

Patrick Mahomes is better equipped to mitigate the Houston Texans defense because of his scrambling frequency and ability. He also gets the benefit of facing a Texans unit that plays a heavy amount of single-high coverage — sixth most over the last month — and has been vulnerable to deep passes, allowing the fifth-highest number of deep attempts in that span.

Enter Xavier Worthy, who has been outstanding for the Chiefs against single-high looks, earning a target on nearly 27% of his routes while producing above-average separation.

The way Kansas City is likely to attack also favors Worthy — on quick-game concepts, he again earns a 27% target rate, and his 13.0-yard average depth of target reflects a downfield role that should see opportunities against these single-high structures.

If Mahomes can mitigate Houston’s pressure and extend plays, Worthy is a likely beneficiary, especially in a game script where the Chiefs exceed expectations in a win.

SGP Build: 80-1 on DraftKings

• QB Patrick Mahomes: 320+ passing yards
• WR Xavier Worthy: 100+ receiving yards
• Kansas City Chiefs: -3.5