NFL Week 14: PrizePicks best prop bets
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Here are two props that stand out ahead of Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 21.5 completions
One of the biggest surprises of this NFL season is that the Kansas City Chiefs sit at .500 (6-6) heading into their Week 14 matchup with the Houston Texans. For the Chiefs, this week’s game can be considered a “must win” if they are going to earn a playoff berth for the 11th consecutive season.
The Chiefs have some real concerns along their offensive line, as they could be without three starters this weekend. The team placed left tackle Josh Simmons on injured reserve due to a wrist injury, while right guard Trey Smith sat out Week 13 against the Cowboys and has missed practice early this week. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is dealing with triceps and knee injuries and appears doubtful to play.
The timing couldn’t be worse for Kansas City, with one of the league’s top pass-rushing units on deck. The Texans rank second in the NFL in PFF pass-rush grade of 90.4, led by Will Anderson Jr. (92.0) and Danielle Hunter (90.1), who rank third and fifth, respectively, among edge defenders in PFF pass-rush grade.
The game plan for Kansas City is simple: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes needs to get the ball out quickly to neutralize an elite pass rush against a patchwork offensive line. It is fair to expect a heavy dose of screens and quick-game concepts for the Chiefs, which makes Mahomes’ prop of more than 21.5 completions compelling.
Mahomes has hit this line in 10 of 12 games this season. He is averaging 24.5 completions over the past six games since star wide receiver Rashee Rice came back from suspension, which has been a big boost for Kansas City’s offense.
Expect the Chiefs to lean on Mahomes and their quick passing game as they try to keep their season alive in a showdown with the Texans in Week 14.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Over 34.5 receiving yards
Robinson has established himself as one of the NFL’s elite pass-catching running backs, ranking third among 57 qualifying backs in PFF receiving grade (89.7). The former first-round pick out of Texas ranks second in receiving yards (594), tied for second in receptions (54) and third in targets (66) this season.
In Week 14, Robinson and the Falcons will take on the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s defense has been strong all season, particularly against the run, where the unit’s 76.7 PFF run-defense grade ranks fourth in the league. The Seahawks have been more vulnerable through the air against running backs, placing 31st in running back target rate faced.
The Seahawks are seven-point favorites, which means the game script will likely not be in Atlanta’s favor, leading to more passes than usual. Standout wide receiver Drake London is set to miss his third straight game with a knee injury, which boosts Robinson’s usage through the air even more (targeted nine times over the past two weeks).
Factoring in Robinson’s elite receiving ability, the matchup with Seattle and Atlanta’s injuries on the offensive side of the ball, I am targeting this prop.
