Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-4), at 8:20 p.m. Monday
The Line: Eagles -2.5/Total: 41.5
What is the line telling you:
The line on this game opened with the Eagles as small -2.5-point road favorites, with the total set at 43.5. Since then, the spread has dipped as low as Philly -1.5 and climbed as high as Eagles -3 before settling back below the key number, where it now sits at -2.5 across the board. The total has also taken steady under money and is now down to 41.5.
Handicapping this matchup comes down to the Chargers’ quarterback situation. If Justin Herbert does start, the key question becomes how much the injury to his non-throwing hand will impact his effectiveness. If you’re looking to back the Chargers this week, ball security and turnovers will likely be the deciding factors in determining the outcome.
The Chargers have played efficient football at home, winning five of their seven home games this season by an average of eight points per game. This prime-time matchup is massive for both sides. The Eagles are trying to keep pace with the Bears, Packers, Lions, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers in the race for the top spot in the NFC. Meanwhile, even at 8–4, the Chargers currently occupy the final playoff spot in the AFC if the season ended today. Jim Harbaugh’s team has a much thinner margin for error and, from a standings perspective, arguably needs this game more than Philadelphia does.
Bottom line:
From an analytical standpoint, the Chargers hold the edge in net yards differential, ranking 10th in the NFL, while Nick Sirianni’s group sits 23rd. Offensively, the Chargers rank slightly higher in yards per play. In pass protection, however, Philly allows one fewer sack per game, ranking 13 spots better than LA. On the ground, the Chargers rank 12 spots higher in yards per rush attempt. Defensively, the biggest gap appears in opponent yards per play, with the Chargers ranked 8th and the Eagles 17th. LA’s defensive front also ranks 17 spots higher in sack and pressure rate.
Even if Herbert starts and plays all four quarters, ball security remains a major concern. The Chargers have struggled to protect their quarterback all season and rank near the bottom of the NFL in sacks allowed. The Eagles remain one of the better teams in the league in turnover differential, ranking 9th, and they also own the stronger overall team DVOA at 11th compared to the Chargers at 17th. This also sets up as a strong buy-low spot-on Philadelphia after back-to-back losses. Take the Eagles at -2.5, and under 41.5 in what profiles as a lower-scoring game.
Prop bets for the game:
Justin Herbert — Under 200 Passing Yards (-110)
Jalen Hurts — Under 200 Passing Yards (+111)
Jalen Hurts — Anytime TD (+100)
Omarion Hampton — Anytime TD (+170)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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