Welcome to Week 14, which for most leagues is the final game before the fantasy playoffs begin. If you need a win to get in, keep reading. If you’re already in, keep reading. If you’re out of it but just can’t get enough fantasy football, keep reading.
Stranger Things is back for another season on Netflix, and it’s fitting, because the NFL is living in the Upside Down. Is a changing of the guard happening? The playoffs will tell us, but for now it sure seems so. There were four featured games across Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday (thank you very much, NFL), and in each one, a defending division champ from last season was favored, and lost. The Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles – all preseason Super Bowl favorites — got beaten with the whole country watching.
The Chiefs and Ravens are 6-6 and in danger of missing the playoffs. KC trails the Broncos by four games, and the Chargers by two. The 7-5 Lions find themselves in third place in the tough NFC North, battling for a wild card. The 8-4 Bills are looking up at the 11-2 Patriots, winners of 10 straight. The Bucs and Texans are in dogfights for divisions they won by two full games last season. Up is down.
On the flip side, down is up. If the season ended today, the Bears (who endured a ten-game losing streak and finished last in the NFC North in 2024) and the Patriots (who went 4-13 and finished last in the AFC East in 2024) would be the Conference #1 seeds. Read that sentence again. It feels like a wide-open playoff is coming, and most of the teams that came into the 2025 season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations have work to do just to punch a ticket.
Stats of the Week:
- No team in the AFC North is above .500.
- Three of the six teams with at least nine wins on the season are in the NFC West.
- In their upset loss to Carolina on Sunday, the Rams ran just three plays in the third quarter (the lowest total for any team in any quarter this season).
- Davante Adams has 11 TDs in his last six games.
- The Vikings are the first team in NFL history to have two different QBs throw a pick-six in their first NFL start in the same season. This stat is brought to you by Justin Jefferson.
- The Bills’ 249 rushing yards on Sunday were the most by a visiting team in Pittsburgh since 1975.
- Lamar Jackson hasn’t thrown or run for a single touchdown in the Ravens’ last three games.
- Drake Maye leads the NFL in passing yards, despite not having a single 300-yard game on the season.
Fantasy Stat of the Week:
- The Seahawks D/ST (30 Points) was the #2 fantasy scorer in Half PPR in Week 13, behind only A.J. Brown (30.2). Thank you, Max Brosmer. This stat was also brought to you by Justin Jefferson.
Week 14, here we go!
Bye Weeks: CAR, NE, NYG, SF
Week 14 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen or Trey McBride. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade,and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be from down in the rankings.
My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers were mostly solid in Week 13. My Ride of the Week (Mark Andrews) missed, but my Fade of the Week (Justin Jefferson) had just two catches for four yards, and hopefully you heeded my advice and benched him. You can check my work here: Week 13.
Ride of the Week: Jameson Williams (vs. DAL). Two weeks ago, Williams had zero yards at home against the Giants, in a game that featured more than 1,000 yards of total offense. But last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown sprained his ankle in the first quarter and didn’t return, and Jamo had his best output of the season (19.9 fantasy points). I like his chances to get close to that total again, or exceed it. The Lions play on Thursday night and that increases the challenge for St. Brown to make it back onto the field. And while Dallas has been playing better defense over the last month or so, they’ve still allowed the most TD catches (21) and fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing wide receivers for the full season. This game has the highest Vegas total on the board this week, at 54.5. Play what you can, and that definitely incudes the speedy Williams.
Fade of the Week: Oronde Gadsden II (vs. PHI). Gadsden burst onto the scene in October, but the rookie appears to have hit a bit of a wall. He hasn’t topped three catches or 41 yards in any of his last three outings. On top of that, the matchup is brutal. Philadelphia has smothered tight ends all season, and they’ve played some good ones. They’ve allowed the second fewest yards and third fewest FPPG to the position, and just three TDs. And last but definitely not least, Justin Herbert had surgery on Monday for a broken bone in his non-throwing hand. I’m sure he’ll try to play through it, but his situation adds to my unease with Gadsden as a TE1 option this week.
Sleeper of the Week: Isaiah Likely (vs. PIT). I don’t have a lot of conviction here, and he isn’t even the top TE option on his team. With that said, Likely is coming off his first big game of the season (5-95-0 on six targets), and even though he fumbled at the goal line (a Ravens’ specialty), I like his chances this week, as Lamar Jackson continues to try to get right. This battle for the AFC North lead is pivotal for both teams, and I expect the Ravens to try to exploit whatever advantages they can find. Enter Likely. The Steelers haven’t defended the TE position well, and they’ve been especially vulnerable to more athletic ones. On the season they’ve allowed the seventh most FPPG to opposing tight ends, and seven TDs which is tied for third most. If you need a Bye week replacement for George Kittle, Hunter Henry, or Theo Johnson this week, Likely is an intriguing swing to take.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott (@DET), Matthew Stafford, and Patrick Mahomes; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Jared Goff (vs. DAL) is a must-start, and my QB4 for the week. As noted above, Dallas has improved on defense and he could be without St. Brown, but this is a potential loser-leaves-town game for both teams and scoring points won’t be the Lions’ issue. Dallas has allowed the most passing yards, FPPG, and TD passes (28) to opposing quarterbacks, and Goff should put up numbers in what could be a Thursday Night shootout where the last team with the ball wins.
Other quarterbacks ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking include Jordan Love (vs. CHI), Lamar Jackson (vs. PIT…and come on, already), and Baker Mayfield (vs. NO). Each one has a decent matchup at home, in an important game that his team needs.
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the QBs who is injured or on a Bye, the options this week aren’t too appealing. Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND) is a decent play most weeks, including this one. Beyond him, I think you can roll with Sam Darnold (@ATL), Tyrod Taylor (vs. MIA), and Tyler Shough (@TB).
Speaking of which…If you’re really stuck – and I mean REALLY stuck — then Shedeur Sanders (vs. TEN) and J.J. McCarthy (vs. WAS, if he is back under center) have favorable matchups, and an opportunity to score some points. These are desperation plays this week – a tough choice if your season is on the line.
Fades:
I’d think twice about starting Justin Herbert (vs. PHI) this week. It’s a Monday night game, so it’s possible there won’t be clarity on his availability until it’s too late for your other choices. But even if it’s clear he’s starting, it’s a tough matchup and he’s a re-injury risk, and a turnover risk given the injury. The Eagles are Top-10 in most pass defense and scoring categories.
I once again don’t feel great about Caleb Williams (@GB) this week, so I’ll fade him again as it worked out at Philly last week (10.5 fantasy points). The Packers’ defense is tough, and especially at home. They’ve allowed the seventh fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and the Bears have been leaning heavily on the running game and might do so again assuming they keep this game close.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d avoid in Superflex this week, include Aaron Rodgers (@BAL), Tua Tagovailoa (@NYJ), C.J. Stroud (@KC), Cam Ward (@CLE), and Geno Smith (vs. DEN). Tua in the cold scares me, plus he hasn’t been good lately, even though Miami has been winning.
Running back:
Elite options this week – Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Devon Achane, Derrick Henry (take note of what the Bills did to the Steelers on the ground last week), and James Cook; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Five must-starts this week: Josh Jacobs (vs. CHI), Chase Brown (@BUF), Quinshon Judkins (vs. TEN), Kyren Williams (@ARI), and Bucky Irving (vs. NO). All five should see plenty of work and have good-to-excellent matchups. The Bills, Titans, and Cardinals are all bottom-eight in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing RBs, while the Saints and Bears rank in the bottom half of the league. Brown has really turned his season around after a brutal start, and has six straight games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings include: Breece Hall (vs. MIA), Travis Etienne (vs. IND), R.J. Harvey (@LV), Jordan Mason (vs. WAS, and that’s assuming Aaron Jones, Sr. is out).
Sleepers:
If either Trey Benson or Omarion Hampton isn’t able to return this week, then Bam Knight (vs. LAR) and/or Kimani Vidal (vs.PHI) fall somewhere in the RB2 to Flex range. Even if those starters do play, the backups mentioned might have Flex appeal as the starter could be limited or eased in.
Others to consider (outside the Top-25 for the week) if you’re stuck at running back: Devin Neal (@TB), David Montgomery (vs. DAL), Bhayshul Tuten (vs. IND), and the TD vultures: Zach Charbonnet (@ATL), Tyler Allgeier (vs. SEA), and Blake Corum (@ARI).
Fades:
I’ll fade both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco this week (vs. HOU). It’s a pretty tough matchup, and a shared backfield. Hunt is the goal-line option and could always get a plunge (or two), so I prefer him of the two.
You’re starting Saquon Barkley (@LAC) and Ashton Jeanty (vs. DEN), but temper expectations. Barkley has disappointed all season, and that’s putting it mildly considering what it cost to draft him. He hasn’t topped 10.1 fantasy points in any of the four games since the Eagles’ Week 9 Bye, and has only bested 16 fantasy points once all season (at this point last season, he had topped that total seven times). On top of that, this isn’t a particularly good matchup. Jeanty also has a difficult matchup, and the hope with him is that he keeps seeing good passing game usage.
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua AND Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb AND George Pickens, Rashee Rice, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Four Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20: Jaylen Waddle (@NYJ), Chris Olave (@TB), Christian Watson (vs. CHI), and A.J. Brown (@LAC, and he has smashed as a Ride two weeks in a row, so I’ll stay on him as I think his funk is over). Three of these four hit for me last week, and I like the matchup, and/or the usage (including in the red zone) for all of them.
Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week, I like all of these guys as a WR2/WR3 or Flex play this week: Michael Pittman, Jr. and Alec Pierce (@JAC), Courtland Sutton (@LV, and look for him to pick up steam down the stretch), and Khalil Shakir (vs. CIN).
Sleepers:
I’ve been hitting on a few WR sleepers for the last several weeks, so let’s try for more.
WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Chris Godwin, Jr. (vs. NO), D.J. Moore (@GB), Romeo Doubs (vs. CHI), and Adonai Mitchell (vs. MIA).
Want deeper sleepers for DFS, of if you’re truly stuck? Isaac TeSlaa (vs. DAL) is completely boom or bust, but with multiple pass-catchers hurt, he could be worth plugging in, in a great matchup against the NFL’s most generous pass defense. Other deep sleepers: Jerry Jeudy (@TEN), Pat Bryant (@LV), Devaughn Vele (@TB), and Malik Washington (@NYJ).
Fades:
D.K. Metcalf (@BAL). I’m tired of typing his name each week, but even in good matchups on paper (like this one), he continues to disappoint on a weekly basis. In four of his last five games, he’s had less than five fantasy points. I’m fine missing out if he suddenly snaps out of it at the Ravens.
I can’t click on Brian Thomas, Jr. (vs. IND), even with Parker Washington now hurt. Yes, he’s back from injury, but his return in Week 13 netted a grand total of 2.8 fantasy points, continuing a disastrous season. With a lot on the line this week, it’s a risk I’m not willing to take.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who’ve been starting options for much of the season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Ladd McConkey (vs. PHI), Terry McLaurin (@MIN), Rome Odunze (@GNB), and Troy Franklin (@LV).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Trey McBride and Brock Bowers. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Tyler Warren (@JAC) is a green-light special this week. The rookie hasn’t cracked ten fantasy points in well over a month, but he’s had an OK floor beneath that. This week he gets a Jags’ defense that’s been shredded by tight ends all season. They’ve allowed the second most catches and FPPG to the position, and seven TDs, which is Bottom-5.
If Dalton Kincaid (vs. CIN) can make it back this week, he’s a must-start against the Bengals, who’ve been historically bad covering tight ends. Or I should say, not covering them. They’ve allowed the most catches, yards, TDs (13) and FPPG to the position. If Kincaid can’t go, Dawson Knox is in the sleeper conversation at tight end.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Jake Ferguson (@DET), Brenton Strange (vs. IND, and he’s averaging 10 FPPG since returning from injury), Mark Andrews (vs. PIT), and Juwan Johnson (@TB).
Sleepers:
Tight ends to consider if you’re stuck (ranked outside the Top-14 this week): Evan Engram (@LV, despite it being a bad positional matchup), Darren Waller (@NYJ) and in the same game, Mason Taylor (vs. MIA), and T.J. Hockenson (vs. WAS). Washington and Miami have allowed the third and fifth most FPPG to opposing TEs, respectively.
Fades:
The Eagles have been in an offensive funk for big chunks of the season, and that’s been especially true since their Week 9 Bye. That has impacted Dallas Goedert (@LAC), who has averaged just 4.1 FPPG over the last four games. He’s always a threat to pop off, but he’s hard to trust right now and especially in a difficult matchup. The Chargers are Top-10 vs. the position.
I’ll fade A.J. Barner (@ATL) and all of the Bengals TEs (@BUF). The two worst matchups for tight ends this season have been the Bills and Falcons (each defense has allowed just one TD to the position all season), and with the Bengals employing multiple players at the position, it’s hard to trust any one of them.
Dalton Schultz (@KC) has been a pretty decent option this season, but I’ll fade him at the Chiefs, who’ve allowed the sixth fewest FPPG and just three TDs to opposing TEs.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12 for the week): See my Week 14 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 14! Let’s punch that ticket.
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
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