Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions (-3) [Total: 54.5]

Game Overview

Lions-Cowboys has become a bit of an annual affair, with these NFC franchises facing off in each season since 2022. This Thursday Night Football battle marks the fourth matchup between Dak Prescott’s Cowboys and Jared Goff’s Lions. While Dallas holds the edge in the win-loss column, it’s Detroit that has held the advantage in betting markets, with a 2-1 record against the spread — all coming on the road. 

This time around, the Lions play host at Ford Field, where they’ve struggled in recent weeks. Since returning from a Week 8 bye, Detroit has failed to cover as a home favorite in three straight games, losing outright twice. While the loss to the Packers can be explained away as a good team having a matchup advantage, the Week 9 loss to J.J. McCarthy’s Vikings raises eyebrows. It is Minnesota’s only win since the team’s Week 6 bye.

Conversely, the Cowboys have emerged from their Week 10 bye looking like a new team, capable of taking down even some of the NFL’s top contenders. Dallas has covered three straight games, including a pair of outright wins as the home underdog against the Eagles and Chiefs. Now, attention turns to replicating that success on the road, a spot where the team has produced mixed results (3-3 record against the spread). 

The biggest difference between these two teams’ trajectories is on defense, specifically their coverage units. The Cowboys spent much of the front half of the year at the bottom of many key metrics, but they’ve taken massive steps forward against some premier offenses. For the Lions, we’ve seen the inverse pathing, as they rank dead last in EPA per dropback over the past four games.

EPA Allowed per Dropback Splits

While some of the Lions’ deficiencies can be attributed to injuries in the secondary, the unit has returned key pieces in recent weeks, including D.J. Reed. Yet, the team will be without Terrion Arnold, who was placed on injured reserve, and likely won’t get back Kerby Joseph this week. That doesn’t bode well for a defense coming off two of its worst performances against the pass this season, producing just a 46.8 PFF coverage grade in that span.

PFF betting analyst Judah Fortgang highlighted this matchup in our look at lines to target early in the week. He is taking Dallas and the points in a matchup where the Cowboys’ defensive improvements, particularly on the interior with Quinnen Williams, could create a nightmare for a Lions interior offensive line that is in poor shape. The mismatch between Detroit’s man-coverage-heavy defense and Dallas’ high-powered receiving tandem of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens is another factor.

TE Ross Dwelley, Detroit Lions: Over 1.5 receptions (-109)

Sam LaPorta is out for the year, Brock Wright is out this week and Amon-Ra St. Brown is a game-time decision for Week 14. The Lions are in desperate need of pass catchers. In what profiles to be a matchup where Detroit will need to keep pace with a high-powered Cowboys offense, look for Ross Dwelley to be involved frequently. 

In Week 13 against Green Bay, Dwelley acted as the starter, seeing the field for 47 of the Lions’ 60 offensive snaps. While he hauled in only one of his two targets, the Packers rank fifth in PFF coverage grade (71.6) on tight end targets. 

Although the Cowboys have seen improvements on defense, they still struggle to limit tight end receptions, having allowed the seventh most in the NFL. Dallas has allowed three tight ends to rack up six or more receptions against them in the team’s past four games.