After beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12, the Los Angeles Rams took over as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That lasted all of one week as following the Week 13 loss to the Carolina Panthers, the Rams no longer control their own destiny. With the loss, the Chicago Bears took over as the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Rams’ margin for error got a lot smaller.
Had the Rams simply beaten the teams they were supposed to, while splitting with the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions, they would have locked up the number one seed. After losing to the Panthers, it’s hard to see the Rams taking the NFC’s No. 1 seed without sweeping the Seahawks. In fact, they potentially need to win out.
Following the loss to the Panthers, the Rams still have a high chance at the number one seed, but it has dropped. According to DVOA playoff odds, the Rams have a 36.2 percent chance of obtaining the No. 1 seed. ESPN has the Rams with a 30 percent chance to earn the No. 1 seed and a bye week.
Over the past few years, the Rams have prioritized simply getting in the playoffs. It’s why they have sat their starters in Week 18 each of the last two seasons despite not having seeding locked up. The Rams risked getting the No. 7 seed in 2024 and then settled for the No. 4 seed last year.
Did it change anything? Likely not. However, the Rams ended up having to go on the road in each of their playoff losses. That’s what makes the No. 1 seed so important.
As the lower seed and playing on the road, Matthew Stafford is 1-5 in his career which includes a 1-2 record with the Rams. Since 2017, the Rams are 2-3 in such games under Sean McVay. However, as the home team, Stafford is 4-0 which includes a 3-0 record at SoFi Stadium. McVay hasn’t lost a home playoff game since his first season in 2017. That doesn’t mention that the Rams are 5-1 at home this season.
Stafford has not thrown an interception at SoFi Stadium in 2025. Defensively, the Rams have allowed 15.2 points per game at home. On the road, they have allowed 19.8 points per game and both games they’ve allowed more than 30 points have come away from home.
The goal for this team shouldn’t be just to get in the dance. While they may have confidence that they can beat any team in any venue, there are certainly ways to make their path easier. This is a team that needs to avoid making road trips to Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay, or Seattle in January where weather would almost certainly be a factor.
It’s also worth noting how much of an advantage having the No. 1 seed is since the NFL adjusted its playoff format. There isn’t much correlation between teams with bye weeks and losing momentum. Having that bye week and extra rest is important. Since the NFL went to its seven-team format, four of the eight teams have made the Super Bowl. Additionally, five of the eight have won that first playoff game and made Championship Weekend.
Out of the teams with the No. 1 seed that lost that first game, many were pretenders. While the Tennessee Titans had the No. 1 seed in 2021, they ranked 18th in NFL DVOA. The Green Bay Packers ranked seventh. Last season, the Detroit Lions had 21 players on injured reserve, including several defensive starters.
The sample size is certainly still small, but having the No. 1 seed does provide an advantage. Following the loss, the path just got much more difficult. Here are the remaining schedules for the contending teams
Chicago Bears
- Week 14: @ Green Bay Packers
- Week 15: vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 17: @ San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions
While the Bears are 9-3 and have the NFC’s top seed, their schedule does get very difficult. There are likely two losses in those five games which would drop them to 12-5. However, their projected win total is 11. Because of the conference records, the Rams can’t tie with the Bears and get the No. 1 seed.
Los Angeles Rams
- Week 14: @ Arizona Cardinals
- Week 15: vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 16: @ Seattle Seahawks
- Week 17: @ Atlanta Falcons
- Week 18: vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams currently sit at 9-3 with a projected win total of 12.5. To almost guarantee themselves the No. 1 seed, they almost need to sweep the Seahawks. For any chance, however, they minimally need to split the Seahawks and Lions games and win the remaining three. That would put them at 13-4. In his weekly column, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote,
“It’s possible the two best NFC teams play in the West, and when the Rams and Seahawks met earlier this season, the Rams prevailed, but only after a missed last-second field goal attempt. The rematch in Week 16 in Seattle could decide the division champ, as both teams are 9-3. The Rams still have two games against the 3-9 Cardinals along with a trip to Atlanta, but their toughest non-Seattle game takes place at home against the Lions in Week 15. The Seahawks have road games left in Atlanta, Carolina and San Francisco to go with home games against the Colts and Rams.”
Seattle Seahawks
- Week 14: @ Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15: vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Week 16: vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 17: @ Carolina Panthers
- Week 18: @ San Francisco 49ers
While the Seahawks don’t have an easy schedule down the stretch, they could win out with how their defense is playing. It’s possible they lose one of the two NFC South games on the road. They could lose to the Colts and Rams and the 49ers will be playing for a playoff spot in Week 18.
The Falcons will have Kirk Cousins and the Colts have dropped off. Their win total sits at 12.5, which is tied with the Rams. The division games in Week 16 and Week 18 are likely the most difficult. If the Seahawks lost one of those games down the stretch, the Rams would take the No. 1 seed.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 14: @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 15: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: @ Washington Commanders
- Week 17: @ Buffalo Bills
- Week 18: vs. Washington Commanders
It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the Eagles at this point. Justin Herbert just had hand surgery. The best chance of another Eagles loss may be in Week 17. Their projected win total is 11.2. At 8-4, they are projected to lose two games.
While the Rams can tie with the Seahawks and still get the No. 1 seed, that’s not the case with the Eagles. The Eagles own the head-to-head. If the Rams lose one more game, they would also need to hope for the Eagles to lose one more game.
San Francisco 49ers
- Week 14: Bye
- Week 15: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 16: @ Indianapolis Colts
- Week 17: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks
Due to their easy schedule, the 49ers still have a chance at the No. 1 seed. The 49ers sit at a sneaky 9-4 and could potentially win out. They will be catching the Colts at the right time and are home against the Bears and Seahawks. With that said, their projected win total is 11.2.
The only way that the Rams can tie with the 49ers and still come out ahead is if they lose to the Seahawks. If the 49ers win that game, it would put them at 5-1 in the NFC West. Ideally, the 49ers lose to the Bears and get upset by the Colts to keep them out of the conversation.
Green Bay Packers
- Week 14: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 15: @ Denver Broncos
- Week 16: @ Chicago Bears
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: @ Minnesota Vikings
The Packers are 8-3-1 and have a projected win total of 11.7. However, they’ve been inconsistent this season and have some difficult games. It’s possible that they split with the Bears and then lose one to the Broncos or Ravens. Unless the Rams unexpectedly tie one of their remaining games, the Rams simply need to finish with more wins than the Packers.
So…what are the Rams’ chances?
At the end of the day, the Rams can only control what they can control. They simply need to win the games remaining on their schedule that they should and that will put them in good position for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. While the Rams may see themselves as a team that can win anywhere, the number one seed should be a priority. Playing at home in January is a significant advantage. This team is in a different spot than it has been the last two years and the goal is more than just getting into the playoffs.
The road certainly got more difficult after losing to the Panthers and the margin of error got much thinner. That also doesn’t mean that it isn’t out of reach. This is still one of the best teams in the NFL and with five games to play, they will have the opportunity to prove that.
