Sean McVay’s coaching tree, the technically accurate one and not the “let’s argue over semantics” version, currently stands at 5 teams, three of which are 4-8. Will this be the first time during McVay’s tenure as a head coach that the tree gets significantly pruned? More relevant to McVay and the Rams right now, if you cut one branch off does another one just pop right back into its place?
Could Aubrey Pleasant get a head coaching job before Chris Shula?
First, the latest on every coach who worked for the Rams under McVay prior to being hired as a head coach:
Matt LaFleur, Packers 8-3-1
LaFleur is in no danger of losing his job and in fact continues to build a resume as one of the most successful head coaches in Green Bay’s history: 75-36-1 regular season record.
The only Packers head coach with a better winning percentage than that is Vince Lombardi.
We can argue about his 3-5 playoff record or his play calling, but LaFleur has managed to build a number one seed contender both with and without Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love is an okay quarterback with a below-average supporting cast and yet the Packers are first in the NFL in third down conversion rate (49.3%) and third in red zone touchdown rate (67.4%).
The Rams have Matthew Stafford and two top-tier talents at receiver and they’re 18th on third downs, 4th in the red zone.
It’s true. LaFleur was basically just driving through L.A. for a visit in 2017 en route to his inevitable spot as a head coach. Regardless, he was OC for the Rams and now he’s in his seventh years as a head coach and he will get an eighth.
Liam Coen, Jaguars 8-4
Coen’s team is 8-4 but Jacksonville is no less confounding as they always are:
The Jaguars beat the Chargers 35-6 a few weeks ago. They barely beat the Raiders (the worst team in football according to most) by a single point a couple weeks before that.
Jacksonville has gotten their asses handed to them by the Rams (35-7) but they’ve also beaten the Chiefs, 49ers, and Texans.
It’s hard to say exactly how far the Jaguars could go in the playoffs, if they make the playoffs, but Coen’s going to last longer than Urban Meyer did.
It was only a few years ago that Coen was basically told “thanks but no thanks” after his one season as Rams OC. It’s an impressive first season even if the Jaguars lose by 40 points in the playoffs, which is probably what will happen.
Raheem Morris, Falcons 4-8
It’s tough to be less popular with fans than Raheem Morris is in Atlanta right now. Morris was a pretty surprising hire in 2024 already, with some of the others to get jobs in that cycle including Mike Macdonald, Jim Harbaugh, Dan Quinn (who was Morris’s boss in Atlanta when Quinn was fired and Morris took over as interim), and Dave Canales, another shocking hire who has his NFC South team close to the playoffs after beating the Rams.
Morris is now 12-17 in his second turn with the Falcons and they’ve lose six of their last seven. The Falcons are 0-2 against Canales’s Panthers this season, including a 30-0 loss.
It’s been almost two months since the Falcons beat a team other than the Saints.
It really seems to me like the person who should be fired is GM Terry Fontenot, and that Morris should be given a third season with a different GM who doesn’t make so many bad decisions. That includes sending a first round pick to the Rams for James Pearce, a pick that currently stands at 9th overall in 2026.
Zac Taylor, Bengals 4-8
If the Bengals win the rest of their games, there’s a good chance they will still win the AFC North division despite starting 3-8! They really just need to beat the Bills this week to make it happen:
- Week 14 Bills
- Week 15 Ravens
- Week 16 Dolphins
- Week 17 Cardinals
- Week 18 Browns
They just beat Baltimore 32-14. The Ravens and Steelers still play each other two times in the last five weeks. Baltimore has a much harder schedule than Cincinnati.
Even so, isn’t this what always happens to Taylor? The Bengals are terrible for two months and then have to recover? Even if Joe Burrow wins the last six games in a row, it will only mean Cincinnati’s third straight season of 9-8 football. However, there’s basically no thought of Taylor being let go, especially from the most loyal owner in the league.
Kevin O’Connell, 4-8 Vikings
How much blame does O’Connell deserve for turning the offense over to J.J. McCarthy? That’s really the question that needs to be answered. What can O’Connell do to fix it in 2026, with or without McCarthy?
It’s hard to imagine that KOC is in any danger of being fired given that Minnesota has gone 13-4 and 14-3 in even-numbered years. The Vikings will instead focus on how to get back into contention in 2026 with O’Connell as the head coach, which may not be as hard as it is for most bad teams given the talent on the roster and the very clear indication that most of the problems are at quarterback.
Mac Jones is a highly-popular player in Minnesota right now.
How many “McVay coaches” will be fired?
It seems like the answer is either Raheem Morris or none of them. Morris would seem to be the only coach on the hot seat out of these five.
Which Jobs Will be Available?
So far we know of two:
- Tennessee Titans
- New York Giants
Others often mentioned on the hot seat:
- Pete Carroll, Raiders
- Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals
- Kevin Stefanski, Browns
- Mike Tomlin, Steelers
- Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
Geez, how many “coach of the year” and Super Bowl appearances is in that group?
The Raiders have already blamed Chip Kelly for their offensive woes, allowing Geno Smith to continue on as the starting quarterback despite leading the league in interceptions. Derek Carr was far better when the Raiders benched him a few years ago. Firing Carroll after one season would be a bold move, especially for a Raiders franchise that has already fired three head coaches in the last four years alone, but this is the worst Raiders team since 2014.
Carroll is doing worse than Antonio Pierce and Josh McDaniels!
Does Gannon deserve a shot to run the team without Kyler Murray? Or do the Cardinals want to make changes at both HC and QB?
Steelers fans were literally chanting “Fire Tomlin” this week.
Kevin Stefanski is a two-time coach of the year. Do the Browns honestly believe they can do better?
McDaniel was “all but gone” a couple months ago. Now Miami has won four of their last five games and McDaniel has a winning record in sight if he can win four of the last five. The premise of the Dolphins firing McDaniel to hire Chris Shula doesn’t seem all that probable anymore. I mean, is Miami actually more talented than Las Vegas? I don’t think so but they’ve won more games.
Also, why not Aaron Glenn? Why not Kellen Moore? If Carroll is a one-and-done, these coaches shouldn’t be overlooked either. Beating the Browns, Falcons, and the Burrow-less Bengals doesn’t make the Jets anything more than a basement-dwelling team again.
Who gets fired?
It’s hard to believe that firing Stefanski would be a decision made by anyone other than the Shedeur Sanders fan club. Cleveland extended him in 2024 and their next head coach won’t inspire anyone. It’ll just be the next Freddie Kitchens. Shouldn’t they just keep Stefanski another year and see if they can improve at QB?
McDaniel might be fired but he’s done more with Tua Tagovailoa’s lack of talent than most coaches could.
Teams don’t really want to fire head coaches unless they can get an upgrade and if the market doesn’t seem too competitive for them. So if the Steelers fire Tomlin, doesn’t that make it even less likely that the Browns are going to hire a better head coach than Kevin Stefanski?
If the Steelers fire Tomlin — and they probably should — the Browns can’t fire Stefanski. Hell, Pittsburgh would interview Stefanski and he might get the job!
Now if Tomlin gets fired, another team might consider firing its coach to make room for Tomlin. That’s true. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. (Or they could try to make a trade.) Maybe Tomlin goes to the Atlanta Falcons.
But I kind of don’t see that many more head coach firings in the future.
These coaches could be next:
- Pete Carroll, Raiders
- Raheem Morris, Falcons
- Mike Tomlin, Steelers
Despite another 3-9 record type of season, the Cardinals have had a lot of close losses this year. Do they really think they can do better than Gannon this cycle? I don’t think so and they need to change the QB, not the HC.
I’m going to predict 5 available jobs — Raiders, Falcons, Steelers, Giants, Titans — and that makes it even harder for someone to get hired, if true. Or it could be 8 jobs if you add the Browns, Cardinals, and maybe a wild card team like the Jets or Dolphins. I don’t really see it happening to that degree.
Also, which of these jobs are even attractive to a good head coach? Steelers and who else? You have to really like the quarterbacks of those teams. The Falcons don’t have a first round pick next year. The Raiders committed way too much money to Geno Smith. The Steelers don’t have a quarterback or answer at quarterback next year.
At least the Titans have Cam Ward and another top pick in 2026.
Will the McVay coaching tree grow?
Chris Shula is the popular name because he’s the DC of the number two defense in points allowed and his last name is in the Hall of Fame. That being said, let’s really think about this:
The least successful coaches under McVay have been defensive coordinators: Brandon Staley and Raheem Morris.
Only the offensive coordinators have had success after leaving the Rams.
I wonder if Aubrey Pleasant might be more attractive to teams with vacancies than Shula. Despite not being an official offensive or defensive coordinator in his career, neither was Zac Taylor. Pleasant has also been around the league with a very strong resume of coaches to work for:
- Mike Shanahan (2013-2016)
- Sean McVay (2017-2020)
- Dan Campbell (2021-2022)
- Matt LaFleur (2022)
- McVay (2023-present)
He’s served mostly as a defensive backs coach but also as a defensive passing game coordinator and for the last two years as assistant head coach. The Rams have done everything in their power to groom Pleasant to be a head coach without giving him defensive coordinator duties. He was head coach for the team in the preseason, beating the Chargers 23-22 and handling the media after the game when all the questions were “Where’s Stafford?”
Fans think that Pleasant is just the next in line to be DC if Shula leaves and maybe that’s true. It seems probable. But why not interview Pleasant now, if you’re the Titans or the Giants…or the Steelers?
Pleasant would fit the mold of a Steelers head coach in a lot of ways.
One name not being thrown around is Mike LaFleur, but he should be considered too. I’ve already covered the success that his brother has had in Green Bay and the surprising success that other McVay OCs have had, including guys who didn’t call plays like Coen and O’Connell. If you’re the Giants or the Titans, don’t you at least want to talk to LaFleur and see what he thinks of your rookie QB?
The Rams have an in-house replacement ready to go in Nate Scheelaase, should LaFleur be a surprising hire after the season.
What will happen to Rams coaching staff?
Firing special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn after the season still seems probable given McVay’s history there.
Shula and Pleasant WILL BE INTERVIEWED. I’m sure of it. LaFleur, I’m less sure of it, but he should be interviewed. It’s difficult to project which coaches will actually get hired — just look at Coen or Canales or Morris — but L.A.‘s options are as good of a bet as any. It’s been almost an annual occurrence and this time there are at least a couple of names that could be relatively popular.
More popular than Raheem Morris is right now.
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