I knew my prediction last week was bold, and it was the biggest whiff I’ve had so far this year. Sometimes you’ve got to go big or go home, and I learned that sometimes shooting that far up is risky. This week, I want to predict something that seems bold, but not too bold.
The Detroit Lions host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, and the Cowboys come in with the number two offense in the NFL, averaging 29.3 points per game. When the Cowboys score over 24 points, they are 5-1-1. In their other five losses, they scored 14, 17, 20, and 24 (twice) points. If the Lions are going to win, it will have to be with its defense, and given their struggles recently, I think this week can be the week it returns to what it was earlier in the year.
Bold prediction of the week: Detroit holds the Cowboys to under 24 points
I get it, it’s hard to trust the defense right now after how the Green Bay Packers moved the ball on them to score 31 and allowing the New York Giants to score 27 the week before, but this is when things turn around. We’ve seen the Lions defense do well, even just recently against the Philadelphia Eagles, holding them to just 16 points. The good news here is that Detroit’s players who are returning or have returned from injury now have more games under their belt and can feel more comfortable being back on the field.
In the secondary, cornerback D.J. Reed returned against the Giants, and before he got hurt, he averaged 53 snaps a game this season. Against New York, he had 31 snaps before increasing to 54 against Green Bay. Defensive tackle Alim McNeil has now played in six games this year, with his workload at his full amount starting against the Eagles back in Week 11. EDGE Marcus Davenport had 33 snaps in Week 1 and was down to 23 in Week 2 when he suffered his injury. His return last week saw 23 snaps, and I expect that number to increase against Dallas.
It’s not just that the Lions’ injured players are returning and should be on the field more, but this defense has stood their ground when necessary, too. This season, the Lions are allowing 22.8 points per game, ranked 15th in the league. When they hold opponents to under 24 points or less, they are 5-1. With Dallas being 1-5 when scoring 24 points or fewer, it’s the key for this game to turn into a win for Detroit.
Detroit’s ranked well defensively per PFF despite the recent struggles. They have the fourth-ranked defense (79.9), third-best run defense (81.1), tied for second in tackling (73.3), fifth in pass rush (80.3), and eighth in coverage (68.4). They’ve got the players on the roster to limit opponents in EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, linebacker Jack Campbell, safety Brian Branch, and more. This defense is too talented not to give opposing offenses trouble, and I think defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard will make some adjustments again to make sure things benefit them and be like they were earlier in the season.
The Cowboys’ offense has been why they’ve been winning games lately, mostly through the air with quarterback Dak Prescott throwing to wide receivers George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. While the air attack has been strong, the ground game could use some improvement, and that’s where I think Detroit attacks. The Cowboys’ run grade per PFF is 72.3, tied for seventh-lowest in the NFL. Despite the talented receiving corps, if the Lions’ defense can stop the run and force Dallas into obvious passing situations, it will be their best chance at getting off the field.
Both teams currently have their backs against the wall, and mistakes can’t be made. If the Lions can simply limit the Cowboys’ offense, with how the Cowboys’ defense has played this season (31st in points allowed at 28.5), the Lions should come out on top.
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