Indianapolis, IN — The Indianapolis Colts are fresh off consecutive losses for the first time this season, and have lost three of their last four games. This stretch includes a bye week that is often regarded as a much-needed break, yet the Colts have only provided questions than answers since.
The Colts famously began the 2025-26 season firing on all cylinders, climbing out to the AFC’s best 7-1 record through eight weeks. After they’d lose to the middling Pittsburgh Steelers in the week following, however, is when nonbelievers began to expose themselves. There were some in the weeks leading up to said loss, but the confidence in their claims grew louder after Pittsburgh.
Sitting with an 8-4 record and lots of rediscovered baggage at the end of Week 13, those previous allegations don’t seem so outlandish now. Here’s the comparison of Indy’s strength of schedule pre-bye week to that of its gauntlet post-Week 13, which is the NFL’s toughest remaining schedule according to Tankathon:
Pre-Bye Week opponents’ collective win percentage: .400
Post-Week 13 opponents’ collective win percentage: .672
The decision to cut the season in half for this exercise was to showcase how the previous ‘byproduct of an easier schedule’ allegations have some weight to them. Including both the Colts’ losses to Kansas City and Houston in Weeks 11-12 would’ve bolstered that win percentage, which seems a bit counterproductive given the Colts had no signs of slowing down post-Berlin win. For what it’s worth, even before the Chiefs and Texans bested the Colts, Indy’s post-bye week strength of schedule was good for the 4th-toughest (.589) leaguewide.
The Colts’ remaining schedule is arguably the definition of a gauntlet by NFL standards, with each of their five remaining contests featuring teams vying for the division lead. Not only is each team poised to win its division, but there’s a reality where every one of Indy’s remaining opponents could make the playoffs.
Week 14: @ Jacksonville (8-4)
Week 15: @ Seattle (9-3)
Week 16: 49ers (9-4)
Week 17: Jaguars (8-4)
Week 18: Texans (7-5)
The good news for Indianapolis is that everything remains in front of them. So long as they win out, they hold the record breaker over Houston and punch their ticket into the playoffs. The bad news, however, is that Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker over Indy going into Week 14. Even though the Colts and Jaguars have both of their divisional matchups left on the schedule, splitting the season series with both teams winning out would favor Jacksonville and ultimately name them the AFC South champions.
Indianapolis Colts fans, analysts, reporters, and even haters alike understand what’s at stake this coming weekend. They already bested one curse, the season-opener curse, but the biggest one looms largest: playing in Jacksonville, Florida. From Duval chants to clown masks, the Colts have their hands full as they look to not only get back on track as far as this season and regime go, but also defeat a curse that otherwise seems like an inevitable loss.
The losing streak in Jacksonville predates Chris Ballard and Co. — last win came in the 2014-15 season — but even the present members of this organization feel the pressure from the ghosts of the Colts’ past to get the job done. No exaggeration, if the Colts win this weekend, a majority of the recently surfaced doom and gloom outlook gets flushed down the toilet. This curse has turned into that much of a foregone conclusion.
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