The New York Giants get to finish off Week 13 by traveling to Foxboro, Mass. to take on the New England Patriots on Monday night
These two teams are familiar foes with just about as much history as two teams in different conferences can have. Of course, these aren’t the Eli Manning Giants, nor do they face the Tom Brady Patriots. And at face value, it would look like the 2-10 Giants and 10-2 Patriots are two teams heading in different directions.
However, the Giants are “only” 7.5-point underdogs on the road. That’s likely a reaction to the fact that they were 13.5-point underdogs on the road to the 6-4 Detroit Lions last week, but led by 10 points for significant stretches of the game.
The Giants blew the lead and lost the game in overtime, but that doesn’t change the fact that their depleted offense is punching well out of their (presumed) weight class. Even without their starting quarterback, top wide receiver, top running back, and a host of injuries on defense, the Giants have been giving some of the best teams in the NFL all they can handle.
Starting quarterback Jaxson Dart has cleared the concussion protocol, which adds intrigue to the game. Likewise, there’s the added intrigue of the fact that Mike Kafka is pretty familiar with Patriots’ head coach Mike Vrabel. The two met regularly in their respective stints with the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans. Over that period, Kafka helped game plan to beat Vrabel’s defense four times from 2018 to 2021. The two met again in the first week of 2022, when the Giants stunned the Titans in week 1.
Can Kafka do it again? Can his offense once again put the Giants in position for an upset?
Impact of injuries
Injuries always play a big role in the outcome of games as the season wears on and attrition takes its toll. Both of these teams have big questions on both sides of the ball, and those questions could determine the outcome of the game.
For our purposes, the big questions are what the Giants’ offense looks like now that rookie QB Jaxson Dart has cleared the concussion protocol, and how much injuries along the defensive line will impact the Patriots’ defense as a whole.
Now that Dart has cleared the protocol, he’ll get the start against the Patriots on Monday night, per interim head coach Mike Kafka. Jameis Winston is playing well, but Dart continuing to gain experience and furthering his development are still paramount.
Starting Dart has an added strategic advantage as well. Nobody has seen Dart in a game plan designed from the ground up (and called) by Mike Kafka, and that bit of uncertainty can slow down the Patriots’ defense or cloud their game planning. And while we’re unlikely to see Kafka use Dart as a runner with quite the same frequency as Brian Daboll did, the rookie’s legs are simply too potent a weapon to ignore, and one that Winston doesn’t have in his arsenal.
On the flip side, the Patriots will be without defensive tackle Milton Williams, who landed on the injured reserve. Williams is the best player in their defensive front and a real difference maker in both the run and pass game.
Without Williams, the Patriots lack much push up the middle in the pass game, and the Giants an reallocate double teams to deal with edge defenders K’lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry. The Patriots were able to get to Joe Flacco last week, but their one sack and six QB hits on 38 drop backs isn’t a great rate considering how weak the Cincinnati Bengals’ pass protection has been.
Williams is also a force in the Patriots’ run defense, and his absence could be compounded by an injury to nose tackle Khyiris Tonga. Tonga suffered a chest injury against the Bengals and is the Patriots’ primary nose tackle, and they don’t have much in the way of a regular backup for him.
Corey Durden has lined up as a tilt nose for the Patriots, but he’s only played 36 snaps as an A-gap defender. The Giants used a very varied run game over the last two weeks, but counter plays have been their most effective. New York could have a number of options for double teams and changing the math at the line of scrimmage if the Patriots are without Tonga as well as Milton and Tonga.
Attack the middle of the field
Moving past injuries, which always need to be considered this time of year, let’s get a bit familiar with the Patriots’ scheme.
New England’s defense is about what we should expect from a Mike Vrabel team. That is to say, not terribly complex — they don’t use a lot of exotic looks or wild pressure packages — but they’re versatile and extremely well-coached.
The Patriots spend most of their time in relatively basic coverages, usually Cover 1, Cover 2, or Cover 3, running each of them between 26 and 28% of the time. Because two of their most common coverages (Cover 2 and Cover 3) are zone looks, we can anticipate that the Patriots are likely in a zone coverage on a given play, though that isn’t a given.
New England does tend to lean toward Middle Of Field Closed (MOFC) looks with a single high safety, and tends to make their Cover 1 and Cover 3 calls look similar. They also do make use of post-snap rotations, usually showing Cover 2 or Cover 4 pre-snap before bringing a safety down into the box.
The Patriots also don’t tend to blitz or bring simulated pressures to attack (or confuse) the pass protection. They do make use of stunts and twists to create free rushers with their 4-man rush, and that will test the Giants’ pass protection and communication up front. However, they can also be a bit slow to develop and present opportunities if they’re picked up correctly.
Generally speaking, what you see is what you get from the New England defense, though understanding that and beating it are two very different things. As I said above, the Patriots’ defense is very versatile and very well coached. They’re able to effectively communicate pre and post-snap, which allows them to smoothly execute zone coverages as well as pattern match (that is, use man coverage in certain situations within the structure of a zone defense) with the minimum of blown coverages.
That said, there will be opportunities to attack down the field, particularly if the Giants are able to use pre-snap motion to force the Patriots to declare their intentions.
Theo Johnson is having the best run of his young career over the last several weeks, and it seems as though he’s really begun to grasp how to use his prodigious athletic traits. Likewise, Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins are both able to use their precision route running to uncover on sharply breaking routes. Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks both have vulnerabilities in the middle of the field and intermediate ranges that the Giants’ primary weapons can exploit.
We’ve also seen an increased willingness to attack that area of the field over the last two weeks. Though there’s enough noise over the last two weeks that we can’t tell for sure whether that’s by design or circumstances.
- Is Kafka (who’s auditioning for a job) more willing to attack the middle of the field than Daboll (who was trying to avoid fireable mistakes)?
- Is that a difference between Winston (who’s never seen a throw he wasn’t willing to attempt) and Dart (who tries to avoid making wrong decisions)?
- Is it an artifact of individual game plans based on the structure of the Packers’ and Lions’ defenses?
In all likelihood, it’s some combination of the above. But regardless, when the Patriots do rotate a safety down from a deep coverage zone to an underneath zone, it isn’t to be a “robber” defender and take away the middle of the field. Instead, they tend to bring the safety down closer to the line of scrimmage, which can leave a void behind the linebackers and in front of the deep safety.
Given the Patriots’ injuries up front, they could lean into using 8-man boxes and be particularly vulnerable to play-action passes over the middle.
Don’t neglect the run
The Giants don’t have a reputation as a great running team. They’ve been surprisingly productive on the ground and are third in the NFL in rushing touchdowns, seventh in EPA per play on the ground, and eighth in total rushing yardage. However, much of that has come from rookie Dart, who’s accounted for seven of the Giants’ 16 rushing touchdowns and 317 of their 1,494 yards.
The Giants’ running backs are able to create yards and points, but it’s much more of a grind than a than easier yardage some other teams enjoy.
The Giants may be tempted to go pass-heavy to keep up with Drake Maye, who’s currently playing at an MVP level, and avoid one of the NFL’s stoutest run defense. But the Giants have made a point of maintaining an even split between run and pass in their play calling since Kafka has taken over. The Giants haven’t had too many explosive runs, but the commitment to the running game has helped to keep Winston’s worst tendencies in check. We could see a similar commitment to help prevent Dart from feeling as though he needs to win the game himself.
It might not be easy sledding, and failed runs can put the Giants behind the chains, but they should still be loathe to go all-in on the pass.
The absence of Williams, and potential absence of Khyiris Tonga cfor New England hange the calculus as well. The Patriots gave up the only 100-yard rushing performance of their season last week to Chase Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have one of the most anemic running games in the NFL, averaging just 84.9 yards per game and with just five rushing touchdowns. Their per carry averages aren’t bad, but they don’t run often or do much on the ground overall.
If the Patriots are missing two of their starting defensive tackles, that should give the Giants the advantage on the line of scrimmage. The Patriots may want to keep a defender out of the tackle box to account for Winston’s deep passing or Dart’s mobility, but consistent running could force them to bring the extra defender down in run support. Even if the Giants aren’t making headway on the ground, the potential dividends could be worth the investment as the game wears on.
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