Welcome to Week 13, and Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone has a great holiday weekend filled with the four Fs: Family, Friends, Food, and Football. There’s so much pro and college football on tap over the next five days that for some people out there, football is definitely the “F” word this week. For the rest of us who can’t get enough pigskin to go with our Thanksgiving meal and ensuing leftovers, buckle up!
The fantasy playoffs start in two weeks, so it’s officially crunch time – hopefully all your teams are still in it. This is a challenging week for fantasy managers. On the plus side, no teams are on Bye for the first time since Week 4. But on the minus side, while nothing is better than wall-to wall football, the schedule is staggered, with three games Thursday, one Friday, and then the usual Sunday and Monday games. That kind of spread schedule makes it hard to set lineups around players who are not certain to play.
Stats of the Week:
- The Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens lost a combined 11 games last season. Through Week 12, they’ve already lost a combined 14 games this season.
- Jaxon Smith Njigba is averaging 119 receiving yards per game and that puts him on pace to become the first player in NFL history to crack 2,000 receiving yards in a season. Calvin Johnson holds the current record at 1,964 yards (2012, 16 game season).
- JSN has 1,313 receiving yards and that accounts for 47% of his team’s total. If that holds for a full season it would be the highest such percentage in the Super Bowl era. He’s also the first player in NFL history to record at least 75 receiving yards in 11 straight games.
- The Giants have lost five road games this season where they had a double-digit lead.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored 44 touchdowns in 43 career games played (regular season). I can do this math in my head — that’s more than one per game.
- Dak Prescott is 36-9 as a starter vs. the NFC East and has racked up 19 straight wins at home vs. division foes.
- Myles Garrett has 13 sacks over his last four games, a total that would tie him for the league lead if he had no other sacks. Guess what? He has other sacks. He has 18 on the season, and only needs five sacks across his final six games to break the NFL record of 22.5 (shared jointly by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt).
- George Pickens has more receiving yards this season than all Steelers’ wide receivers, combined.
- Will Reichert is the first kicker in NFL history to hit four FGs of 59+ yards in a season.
- The Colts and Eagles were both held scoreless for the entire second half plus overtime of their Week 12 losses (to KC and DAL, respectively).
- The Colts have played two consecutive games that went to overtime.
Fantasy Stats of the Week:
- Over the last three weeks, Lamar Jackson is the QB27, at 10.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG), while Justin Jefferson is the WR42, at 7.0 FPPG.
- The Giants and Lions combined for more than 1,000 yards of offense in Detroit’s 34-27 overtime win. Jameson Williams – who played the entire game — had zero of those yards, and zero fantasy points.
Week 13, here we go!
Bye Weeks: NONE
Week 13 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Jahmyr Gibbs or Trey McBride. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade,and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be from down in the rankings.
My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers were pretty solid in Week 12. You can check my work here: Week 12.
Ride of the Week: Mark Andrews (vs. CIN). Andrews only has one game with more than 35 receiving yards this season, he’s been very TD-dependent for his fantasy value, his all-world QB is struggling and hasn’t thrown a TD pass in his last two games, and the Ravens’ offense is not why the team has won five straight games (that’s putting it mildly). Sounds bad. So why pick Andrews? First and foremost is the matchup. The Bengals have allowed the most catches, yards, and FPPG to opposing TEs, and the 13 TD catches they’ve surrendered to the position is the most through 11 games in NFL history. It’s also a home holiday game in prime time, with the Ravens needing to get things going against what might be a resurgent offense with Joe Burrow back. The easiest way for Lamar to get it going is via Mark Andrews. Book it.
Fade of the Week: Justin Jefferson (@SEA). Not only am I not listing Jefferson among the elite options at WR, but I’m going two steps further and making him a Fade. Jefferson is supremely talented, and that makes him almost impossible to sit. Elite players often hurt you more than lesser talents, for that very reason. You can bench Kyle Pitts or Nick Chubb, no problem. But you used a first rounder on JJ and that creates a real dilemma when it goes completely south. Well, I think you can legitimately consider benching him this week, depending on your other options. Historically bad quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy (who might be the worst “9” since Revolution #9) is killing his value. I don’t think a potential switch to an undrafted rookie making his first start (Max Brosmer) is going to be a big difference-maker, and especially on the road in a hostile environment against a very good defense. Seattle has allowed the fourth fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs. I get it. You’re ignoring me and starting him. Good luck.
Sleeper of the Week: Kenneth Gainwell (vs. BUF). I don’t expect another 122 yards from scrimmage like last week, but with Jaylen Warren not at 100% Gainwell is seeing more run, and he’s been highly productive when given the chance. His passing game usage (13 catches across the last two games) is a huge plus, and so is the matchup. The Bills have allowed the third most FPPG and most rushing TDs to opposing backs. I also think that if Mason Rudolph is under center again, there will be plenty of dump-offs and screens. Gainwell is live as a Flex play this week.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson (I know, I know, but it’s the Bengals – start him as you normally would), Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, and Patrick Mahomes; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Quarterbacks (beyond the elite choices above) ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking include: Justin Herbert (vs. LV, and Herbert is coming off the worst fantasy performance of his career – the reeling Raiders are a perfect spot for a rebound), Bo Nix (at WAS), the red-hot Jacoby Brissett (@TB), and Jordan Love (@DET). All have favorable matchups this week. The Lions, Bucs, and Commanders are all in the Bottom-7 in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing QBs.
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the QBs who is injured or on a Bye, the options this week are just OK. Whoever starts for the Giants (Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston) (@NE) offers decent upside, as the Giants have been scoring a lot more points than expected all season. Trevor Lawrence (@TEN) should put up some points, and you’ll have to live with the turnovers. Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NO), Tyrod Taylor (vs. ATL), and a suddenly viable Cam Ward (vs. JAC) are also worth considering if you’re in need.
Fades:
Daniel Jones (vs. HOU) was a fade for me last week and it didn’t totally hit (16.8 fantasy points, well below his average but still OK), but I’ll run it back in another tough matchup. He hasn’t cracked 18 fantasy points in three straight games, so the early-season shine is wearing off a little. The Texans can make any QB look bad (just ask Josh Allen) and have allowed the fewest FPPG and total TDs (11) to the position.
I’d wait a week on Joe Burrow (@BAL). He hasn’t played in two months and is a notoriously slow starter. Also, while the Ravens were a great matchup early in the season when they were missing multiple defensive starters, they haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 20 points since Week 5. Add in that Tee Higgins is out, and that Burrow probably won’t run much, and I’ll pass.
I don’t feel good about Caleb Williams (@PHI) this week. The Eagles’ defense at home is stingy (they held the Lions to nine points two weeks ago), and this is the kind of big spot where he generally hasn’t stepped up.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d avoid in Superflex this week, include Marcus Mariota (vs. DEN, if he’s the starter), Brock Purdy (@CLE, who has allowed the sixth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs), Kirk Cousins (@NYJ), Bryce Young (vs. LAR), Shedeur Sanders (vs. SF), and Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph (vs. BUF).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, Devon Achane, Derrick Henry, and James Cook; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Four must-starts this week: Travis Etienne (@TEN, allowing the fourth most FPPG to opposing RBs), TreVeyon Henderson (vs. NYG, allowing the most rushing yards, second most FPPG, third most rushing TDs (12), and most total TDs (16) to opposing RBs), Kyren Williams (@CAR), and Jaylen Warren (vs. BUF, allowing the third most FPPG and most rushing TDs (14) to opposing RBs. Good backs with good matchups? Sign me up.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings include: Saquon Barkley (vs. CHI), R.J. Harvey (@WAS), Breece Hall (vs. ATL), Woody Marks (@IND), Ken Walker (vs. MIN), and Quinshon Judkins (vs. SF, assuming he’s good to go).
Sleepers:
If any of Trey Benson, Josh Jacobs, or Omarion Hampton isn’t able to return this week, then Bam Knight (@TB), Emmanuel Wilson (@DET), and/or Kimani Vidal (vs. LV)all fall somewhere in the RB2 to Flex range. Even if those starters do play, the backups mentioned might have Flex appeal as the starter could be limited or eased in. The above is also true with respect to the Tampa situation, so if Bucky Irving doesn’t return, then either or both of Sean Tucker and Rachaad White can be flexed as it’s a very good matchup (sixth most FPPG allowed to opposing RBs).
Kyle Monangai (@PHI) is ranked behind D’Andre Swift this week, but should he be? He got more touches than Swift last week for the first time (when both were healthy), which might have to do with Swift losing a fumble. He has a TD in three straight games.
Others to consider if you’re stuck at running back: Devin Neal (@MIA), Bhayshul Tuten (@TEN), Tony Pollard (vs. JAC), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NYG), Raheem Mostert (@ LAC, but only if Ashton Jeanty is out), and Tyler Allgeier (@NYJ). All except Mostert have very good Week 13 matchups.
Fades:
D’Andre Swift (@PHI) is a tough call for me this week. I think he’s still the first stringer in Chicago despite last week’s usage, but Monangai seems to be the preferred option at the goal line, and while Swift is the better pass-catcher, there haven’t been a lot of throws to the backs. It’s also not the best matchup.
You’re starting Javonte Williams (vs. KC), but he has cooled off considerably since his hot start (10 fantasy points or less and zero TDs across his last three games) and the Chiefs are allowing the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. They’ve also yielded the fourth fewest total TDs (six) to the position.
Rico Dowdle (vs. LAR) is another back who has cooled off after a torrid stretch, and he’s also yielding a bit more of the work to Chuba Hubbard lately. On top of that, it’s a brutal matchup, as the Rams have allowed the second fewest FPPG and just three total TDs to opposing RBs.
David Montgomery (vs. GB) has been a Fade for me multiple times this season. He’s TD-dependent and has only found the end zone once in his last six games. Also, the split with Gibbs is different this season, and especially lately. Montgomery has just 11 carries over the last two contests. He also did very little in the Week 1 matchup with Green Bay (4.3 fantasy points). Fade.
I’ll fade both Giants’ RBs (@NE). It’s the single worst matchup for running backs, and while big Blue has been able to run the ball, this time might be different. New England has allowed the fewest rushing yards and FPPG to opposing RBs.
Bucky Irving (vs. ARI) has a great matchup,but given how long he was out, I don’t know how big his role will be in his first game back. You’ve waited impatiently, and I get the desire to plug him in, but I wouldn’t expect a normal workload.
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua AND Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb AND George Pickens, Rashee Rice, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Four fairly obvious Rides (for me) this week: Jaylen Waddle (vs. NO), and in the same game Chris Olave (@MIA), A.J. Brown (vs. CHI), and Ladd McConkey (vs. LV). All except Olave have good matchups and all should see plenty of targets. That includes Brown, who hit as a Ride for me last week. I think he’ll be a bit more reliable week-to-week going forward.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 this week who have favorable matchups, and/or who I’m just high on for the week include Wan’Dale Robinson (@NE), Michael Wilson (@TB, to keep it going as a heavy-usage option until Marvin Harrison, Jr. is back), Stefon Diggs (vs. NYG), and Khalil Shakir (@PIT).
Sleepers:
I’ve hit on a bunch of wide receiver sleepers two weeks running, so let’s try for more.
Darnell Mooney (@NYJ) hit for me last week, and with Drake London out and a decent matchup on tap, let’s do it again.
Christian Watson (@Det) is ranked outside the Top-30 WRs this week and I think that’s too low. The Lions gave up 10 plays of 20+ yards to the Giants last week, and big plays are Watson’s specialty. Detroit has yielded the sixth most FPPG to opposing WRs. Romeo Doubs is also worth considering if you’re in need, as the Packers are going to need to throw in this one.
Other WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington (@TEN, allowing the fourth most FPPG to opposing WRs) and in the same game, Chimere Dike (vs. JAC), Andrei Iosivas (@BAL), and Quentin Johnston (vs. LV).
Want deeper sleepers for DFS, of if you’re truly stuck? Darius Slayton (@NE), DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte (vs. NYG), John Metchie III (vs. ATL, and he has TDs in back-to-back games), and Malik Washington (vs. NO).
Fades:
D.K. Metcalf (vs. BUF). He hasn’t had more than five catches or 50 yards in four straight contests, and the one thing that’s usually his strong suit (TDs) hasn’t been there either, as he’s been kept out of the end zone in those games too. Maybe he’s overdue, but the Bills aren’t all that generous. I’m not a big believer in “projected fantasy points” that you see on the major platforms and I rarely look at them. More often than not, all they do is predict you right into lineup mistakes. But it’s worth noting that Metcalf has only hit his “projected points” three times in 11 tries. He’s been an overrated fantasy option all season.
Michael Pittman, Jr. (vs. HOU) is having a really good season. This matchup scares me though. The Texans have allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing WRs and are especially strong against perimeter receivers.
If you’ve been waiting patiently for either Brian Thomas, Jr. (@TEN) or Terry McLaurin (vs. DEN), I’d continue waiting, even if they play. First off, it hasn’t been good for either one when they’ve been healthy, so it would be nice to see it first. The Jaguars now have lots of other options in the passing game who are producing. And the matchup for McLaurin is as bad as it gets. Denver has allowed the fewest FPPG and just two TD catches to opposing WRs which is by far the lowest total in the league. While we’re here, I think Deebo Samuel Sr. is also a tough start this week, although he should see volume.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who’ve been starting options for much of the season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Emeka Egbuka (vs. ARI), Rome Odunze (@PHI), Jordan Addison (@SEA), Keenan Allen (vs. LV),and Ricky Pearsall (@CLE).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Trey McBride and George Kittle. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Stick with Travis Kelce (@DAL). He tends to show up when the spotlight is the brightest, and this game could break the record for TV ratings in the regular season. Kelce is quietly the TE5 on the season, at 11 FPPG. Not his best season by a long stretch, but if this is his swansong, it’s been pretty good. Ride the old guy with confidence.
Dallas Goedert (vs. CHI) has been quiet since the Week 9 Bye, but I like his chances to get it going again this week. The Bears’ linebacking corps is decimated with injuries, and that should lead to some open throws to a very good weapon that Philly needs to involve more.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Juwan Johnson (@MIA) and Brenton Strange (@TEN, and at TE15 on the week, he might be better listed as a sleeper).
Sleepers:
Taysom Hill (@MIA) led the Saints in carries after Alvin Kamara left last week’s game with an injury. He’s the ultimate boom/bust play, but he could easily get a goal line carry or two.
Isaiah Likely (vs. CIN) has been hugely disappointing since his return from a foot injury that kept him out for the first month or so of the season. If he’s ever going to get it going, it’s this week, with the best possible matchup for tight ends. If you’re desperate, he’s not the worst dart throw.
In the same game, Mike Gesicki (@BAL) has capitalized on a Tee Higgins absence before, and is another decent long-shot play.
Other TEs to consider if you’re stuck: Gunnar Helm (@JAC), Evan Engram (@WAS), and Dawson Knox (@PIT).
Fades:
Tyler Warren (vs. HOU) is tough to sit after the season he’s had so far. And I’m not suggesting benching him. I’d temper expectations, though. The Texans have allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing TEs, and this could be a low-scoring game for Indy.
In a similar vein, Colston Loveland (@PHI) has been coming on very strong the last month – so strong that Chicago’s decision to draft him ahead of Warren no longer looks completely insane. I’d consider sitting him this week. Philadelphia has allowed the second fewest yards and FPPG, and just two TDs, to opposing tight ends.
Other Fades of TEs you might be considering: Kyle Pitts (@NYJ, and I just can’t go there any more, even with Drake London out), T.J. Hockenson (@SEA, and he’s been an auto-fade for me the entire season), Steelers’ TEs (vs. BUF, allowing the fewest catches, yards, FPPG and just one TD to opposing TEs), Zach Ertz (vs. DEN), and Mason Taylor (vs. ATL, allowing the third fewest FPPG to opposing TEs, and just one TD as well).
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12 for the week): See my Week 13 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 13!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
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