The Detroit Lions (7-4) and Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) will face off for the second time this season, this time inside the comfy confines of Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. In their first meeting, the Packers took care of business in Week 1, executing a well-thought-out game plan and walking away with a convincing 27-13 victory.
“Nobody likes losing. We don’t like losing,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said on Monday. “But you open the year, and we go out to their place, and they gave it to us pretty good. And a division opponent, you don’t want to start that way. […] That’s one of the blessings of playing somebody in your division twice: you get another opportunity. And so, we’ve got another opportunity in front of us at our place on a short week, and we’re looking forward to it.”
While the Lions look forward, we are going to look back at our Week 1 Keys to Victory article to see whether the Lions followed it, whether it worked, how things are different, and what adjustments need to be made for Week 13.
Packers base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 1 Preview: Breaking down Packers’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Run right up the middle
Did it work? Nope
In Week 1, the Lions struggled to run the ball, telegraphing their running back usage. When David Montgomery was on the field, the Lions ran the ball up the middle on seven of his 11 attempts, gaining just 13 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs was consistently deployed outside the tackles, rushing outside on seven of his nine attempts, and he gained just seven rushing yards on his two attempts inside.
As a result, the Lions’ rushers were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 73% of their attempts, with both backs being hit behind the LOS on eight of their attempts. On those 16 carries, the Lions managed just 1.6 yards per carry.
What’s changed? The Lions run inside more and with greater success
Since Week 1, when rushing between the tackles, Gibbs has averaged 54.9 rushing yards per game, with a 7.96 yards per carry output, while Montgomery is averaging 23.7 yards per game, with a 4.9 yards per carry average.
Adjustments? Feature more Gibbs runs in between the tackles
Despite needing to rely on Kayode Awosika at left guard, the Lions have continued their success inside. Since turning to Awosika, the Lions average 3.5 yards BEFORE contact when running inside—most in the NFL.
Most of that success can be attributed to Gibbs, who has a league-leading 423 yards before contact, per Next Gen Stats. Now, some may point out that these numbers are a bit skewed by Gibbs’ 69-yard touchdown in overtime vs. the Giants and his 78-yard touchdown vs. the Bucs, both of which he was untouched. But as Next Gen Stats points out, even if you remove those runs, Gibbs would still lead the NFL with an average of 1.8 yards before contact per carry.
Key 2: Bring the fight to Micah Parsons
Did it work? Nope
With Week 1 being Parsons’ first game with the team, Green Bay mostly deployed him on obvious passing downs, and he only saw the field on seven rushing plays. While he only managed to make one tackle on those seven run plays, the impact of Parsons being on the field still impacted the game, as those plays resulted in a total of -2 rushing yards
What’s changed? Parsons plays nearly every snap now
Since Week 1, Parsons has played between 68% and 90% of defensive snaps on a regular basis, which means the Lions will need to account for him more frequently.
Adjustments? Double-team him and make another defender step up
Parsons is currently tied for the NFL lead with 60 pressures (with Aidan Hutchinson), per Next Gen Stats, despite teams doubling him 21.3% of the time. There’s little doubt of his pass rushing prowess. However, the Packers’ defense is slower and less effective when Parsons is off the field or taken out of the play.
For example, when Parsons gets pressure, quarterbacks need to throw the ball within 2.81 seconds; outside of Parsons, that number drops to 3.06 seconds. Rashan Gary, who plays the opposite edge, is having success with Parsons drawing attention, but his time to pressure is 3.25 seconds. And on average, the Packers have needed 5.0 seconds per sack this season, the fourth-longest average time to sack in the NFL.
While a game-changer as a pass rusher, Parsons is a solid but average run defender. While the Lions’ rushing focus should be inside, look for the Lions to try to use Parsons’ aggressive nature against him and deploy trap and wham blocks when they want to kick runs outside.
Key 3: Follow your OL “rules”
Did it work? Nope
The Lions were slow to adapt to the Packers’ disguise and interior pressure in Week 1, allowing four sacks and 15 pressures.
What’s changed? Nothing, they still apply
The Packers haven’t changed much with their approach to their defensive front; the Lions simply need to execute better.
Adjustments? More 6 OL (Jumbo) sets
After losing tight end Sam LaPorta for the season, the Lions have shifted away from 12 personnel (1 running back and 2 tight end sets) and toward more 11 personnel and Jumbo sets. In fact, over the last two weeks, the Lions have used 12 personnel on only one snap while increasing their Jumbo sets by deploying Dan Skipper 20 times, including 15 snaps last week.
Here’s Next Gen Stats on the Lions’ usage of Jumbo sets and why it’s effective (emphasis is the writer’s):
“The Lions have used jumbo personnel (6+ OL) at the 11th-highest rate this season (5.6%), despite recording their first jumbo snap of the season in Week 6 against the Chiefs. They have averaged 9.2 yards per play across their 38 snaps using jumbo personnel, the most of any offense to have used jumbo personnel more than 10 times in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). In Week 12 against the Giants, they used jumbo personnel on a season-high 15 snaps, resulting in 185 yards and 2 touchdowns (12.3 yards/play), the most such yards by any offense in a game this season.”
Get ready for a lot of “No. 70 has reported as eligible” notifications from referee Ron Tolbert.
Keys 4 & 5: Find St. Brown vs. Cover-3, Jamo vs. Cover-1
Did it work? Nope
Against the Packers’ shell coverage, Jared Goff was constantly in check-down mode. His 3.3 air yards to target (how far the pass traveled before it arrived at the target) was one of the lowest marks of his career. Of his 43 passing attempts, only eight were over 10 yards, and he completed just five. On the day, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught four passes on six targets for 45 yards, while Jameson Williams secured four of his five for just 23 yards.
What’s changed? Packers’ coverage, Jamo route tree
In Week 1, the Packers regularly dropped eight into zone coverage and only played man coverage 9.3% of the time. Since then, the Packers have increased their man coverage to 19.1%, but that’s still a bottom-five usage league-wide.
In Week 1, Williams was still being deployed on deep routes, gadget plays, and screens; however, since coach Dan Campbell has taken over, the Lions have finally unlocked Williams’ route tree. While Williams is coming off a zero catch performance, he has 10 receptions for 207 yards and two touchdowns in the previous two games with Campbell calling plays, and is expected to have a bounce-back game.
Adjustments? Quick completions need more YAC, more Jamo crossers
When Goff’s air yards to target average fewer than 4.0, it limits the offensive effectiveness, and the Lions have lost three of the five games when he’s been held to this output. This is exactly why the Packers are likely to dial up their zone-heavy shell coverage again in Week 13.
Knowing this defense is likely on the docket, Campbell says the Lions need to be patient and execute:
“Well, you’ve got to be patient. You do. That’s what this defense forces you to do. They’re going to force you to be patient. And really, the teams that have had trouble are the ones that don’t stay patient, and they start trying to do things that get out of the norm. […] So, you’ve got to be careful, you’ve got to stay efficient. There’s nothing easy about it. But, look, you play some of that game, at some point, when that opportunity arises, we’ve got to hit on that. And you don’t know when it’s going to be, but you’ve got to be able to hit. And then you’ve got to get some YAC. Some of these underneath throws, you’ve got to get some YAC. And that’s what our guys will be charged with. Our players on this team, our playmakers, they’re going to have to put it in their hands, tuck it away and go make something happen and then get ready to get in the huddle and let’s do it again.”
Regardless of the effectiveness of the Lions’ ground game, St. Brown and Williams will need to help carry this team down the field.
Key 6: Prioritize stopping the run
Did it work? Yeah, but not enough
This season, the Packers’ rushing attack averages 116.5 yards per game (15th in the NFL) with an average of 4.0 yards per carry (24th). Josh Jacobs typically accounts for 64.8 rushing yards per game (3.8 YPC) and 1.1 touchdowns per game. Overall, their rushing attack is more average than good.
In Week 1, the Lions held the Packers to 78 yards as a team (3.1 YPC), while Jacobs amassed 66 yards (3.5 YPC) and a touchdown. That’s a solid performance from the Lions’ defense, but for a unit that ranks sixth in DVOA run defense, they can certainly do better.
What’s changed? Alim McNeill is back
McNeill was not available for the first meeting between these two teams, and his presence should further benefit the Lions’ defensive front.
Adjustments? Limit Jacobs and make Jordan Love beat you
Jacobs finds most of his success running between the tackles (382 attempts, 49% success rate, 3.9 YPC), including scoring eight of his 11 touchdowns in this manner, compared to rushing outside (266 attempts, 38% success rate, 3.7 YPC). Look for the Lions to stick with their heavy deployment of base defense, with a focus on shutting down the running lanes between the tackles.
While the Packers’ rushing attack is not as concerning as their passing attack, it’s in the Lions’ DNA to continue to prioritize stopping the run, as one-dimensional offenses are easier to defend over the course of a game.
Against Love in Week 1, the Lions blitzed him on 47.8% of his dropbacks, and he gashed them for 121 yards and a touchdown on just five of seven completions. Since then, defenses have found success against him by deploying man and zone Cover-2 concepts, while reducing their blitzing tendencies (30%) and forcing him to make tough throws. To counter, Love turned his attention to tight end Tucker Kraft, who was on his way to a career year before suffering a season-ending injury.
Since losing Kraft for the season, the Packers’ YAC has plummeted, and as a result, Love has countered by throwing downfield more, increasing his average air yards per target by nearly four yards. Love’s favorite downfield target since Week 8 has been Christian Watson, who has caught four of his nine targets 20+ yards down the field for 127 yards and a touchdown, more than the rest of the Packers’ skill players combined.
While the Lions, on average, use Cover-2 concepts in only 16% of their defensive coverages, they’ve shown the ability to adapt their scheme to the quarterback. Look for the Lions to incorporate more disguise concepts to slow down Love’s processing and try and prevent him from pushing the ball downfield. Don’t be surprised if the Lions show Watson some bracket coverage in certain parts of the field.
Key 7: Unleash Aidan Hutchinson
Did it work? Nope
In his first game back from a broken leg that ended his 2024 season, Hutchinson produced just two pressures and zero tackles against the Packers in Week 1.
What’s changed? It’s not Hutchinson’s first game back from injury
In the 10 games since Week 1, Hutchinson has found his groove. Currently, he averages 2.7 tackles and 5.8 pressures per game. As mentioned earlier, Hutchinson is tied with Parsons for the NFL lead in pressures, per Next Gen Stats, while PFF credits Hutchinson with an NFL-leading 68 pressures (Parsons is at 60 in PFF’s metric).
Adjustments? Continue to count on Hutchinson… but he’s going to need help
While Hutchinson will need to continue to play like the Lions’ feature defensive player, he’s going to need some help from his other linemen. Early in the game, that means the Lions will likely need Alim McNeill to step up his game, and if they can get Love into obvious passing situations, then Al-Quadin Muhammad (and maybe Marcus Davenport and Josh Paschal) can cut loose.
While McNeill has played more 4i in recent weeks, the potential return of Davenport and Paschal should allow the Lions to push him back inside, where he can cause disruption from the interior. While Packers fans/writers insist that converted guard Sean Rhyan isn’t a downgrade from starting center Elgton Jenkins, the numbers suggest otherwise. Since losing Jenkins, the Packers have allowed pressure on 43.4% of their dropbacks (third-highest rate in the NFL), with Rhyan being credited with a pressure rate of 6.3%, nearly two percentage points higher than Jenkins, per Next Gen Stats. The Packers benched former first-round pick right guard Jordan Morgan for Anthony Belton mid-game last week. This should present McNeill with an opportunity to test for cracks in the new formation.
The addition of more edge rushers is also sure to help the Lions’ edge opportunities; however, Muhammad could be a key contributor if the Lions get the Packers into obvious passing situations. Muhammad has generated 38 pressures on the season (one short of a career high) and has proven to be a player who can find and get to the quarterback. While not a feature player in the Lions’ base sets, Muhammad is exactly the type of player the Lions will need to win this game.
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