“Playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!”
Just a few weeks ago, Miami Dolphins fans would have been echoing the words of the iconic Jim Mora, former Detroit Lions head coach. However, after three wins in their last four games, things are looking up—but only slightly.
As of today, the Dolphins playoff chances sit at a lowly 1%. Yes, just one percent. However, that can change very quickly. Via ESPN, the current NFL playoff picture looks like this.
For the Dolphins to force themselves into the playoff conversation, they will likely need to win out. With seven losses already under their belt, just a single loss can eliminate them from playoff contention. However, this is more feasible than one might think. The rest of Miami’s schedule looks like this.
- Week 13: Sunday, Nov 30 | vs. New Orleans Saints (2-9)
- Week 14: Sunday, Dec 7 | @ New York Jets (2-9)
- Week 15: Monday, Dec 15 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
- Week 16: Sunday, Dec 21 | vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-8)
- Week 17: Sunday, Dec 28 | vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
- Week 18: Saturday, Jan 4 | @ New England Patriots (10-2)
It’s worth nothing that the Dolphins currently have the 4th-easiest schedule in the NFL to close out the season, and they will certainly be favored to win their next two games, which would put them at 6-7 heading into the final stretch of the season. If they can pull off an upset victory in Pittsburgh, that puts the team firmly at .500. They will also likely be favored to win the following two games after that, with two more wins there putting the Dolphins at 9-7 with one game remaining.
Ok, let’s pause for a second. Are the Dolphins really going to rattle off seven straight wins and push for a playoff spot? Probably not. But, is it a possibility? Absolutely.
For the sake of argument, let’s say the Dolphins managed to pull this off. They would be up against the New England Patriots in Week 18, who currently hold the AFC’s No.1 seed. The Dolphins would almost certainly be huge underdogs here. Unless, of course, the Patriots had already clinched the No.1 seed, in which case they would rest their starters, giving the Dolphins a great chance to win.
All else equal, if the Dolphins were to win out, according to The Atheltic’s playoff simulator, their playoff odds would sit at around 20%. Now, with some help from around the league, that number could jump to over 50%.
According to The Athletic, the following games are the most crucial to improving the Dolphins’ playoff odds.
- Week 13 – Titans vs. Jaguars
- Week 14 – Eagles vs. Chargers
- Week 15 – Patriots vs. Bills
- Week 15 – Jets vs. Jaguars
If the Titans, Eagles, Patriots, and Jets can pull off wins here, and the Dolphins win out, the Dolphins’ chances of making the playoffs would sit at 54%. In other words, Dolphins fans should be rooting against the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills, and even the Texans each and every week. The more results that fall Miami’s way, the higher their odds go.
So, is it feasible, probable, or even remotely likely that the Dolphins will make the playoffs this season?
No.
But, they have a fighting chance, and each win takes them closer to that coveted Wild Card spot.
As we’ve seen in the NFL, tanking can be dangerous. Teams willingly destroy their culture, in hopes of landing a high draft spot, only for that pick to flail out after a few seasons. But winning games, not accepting losses, and fighting each and every week can lead to something great down the line.
The Dolphins have a chance to do that this season, and until they’re out of the race, there’s no reason to give up.
Do you think the Dolphins can make the playoffs this season, or is it just a pipe dream? Should they tank for a higher pick? Let us know down below!
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