The Detroit Lions did everything in their control to help their playoff chances in 2025, but the rest of the NFC did not comply. Despite moving to 7-4 on the season, the Lions remain on the outside looking in for the NFC playoff picture, and their odds actually slightly decreased to make the postseason after our Week 12 Rooting Guide went a pitiful 1-7 for the week.
Let’s take a deeper look at the Lions’ updated playoff odds and how they have changed from week to week.
Lions’ odds to make the playoffs:
Note: I got rid of PlayoffStatus.com’s probabilities this week, because their projections were a huge outlier compared to the other models. In their place, I am using NFL.com’s NextGenStats.
New York Times: 73% (-10%)
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 82.0% (-3.6%)
ESPN: 72% (+1%)
NextGenStats: 76%
The biggest jump in playoff odds came from the New York Times playoff simulator, which dropped Detroit’s playoff odds by a full 10% following all of Week 12’s action. To counteract that drop, it was actually the Packers who saw their playoff odds jump the most, going from 75% chance to currently 83% after their convincing win over the Vikings.
The New York Times model allows you to show how future outcomes can impact playoff odds, and obviously Thursday’s game between the Packers and Lions has huge playoff implications. Here’s just how big of a game it is for both teams:
If the Lions win:
- Lions playoff odds go from 73% to 85%
- Packers playoff odds from 83% to 74%
If the Packers win:
- Lions playoff odds go from 73% to 58%
- Packers playoff odds from 83% to 94%
If you’re wondering about the REGRESSION ALERT Chicago Bears, their playoff odds are essentially a coin-flip, per the New York Times, giving them a current 49% chance to make the playoffs. The other models are a tad more favorable to Chicago, with FTN Fantasy placing them at 52.1%, ESPN at 62%, and NextGenStats at 61%.
Odds to win NFC North
- Packers: 51% (+14%)
- Lions: 33% (-13%)
- Bears: 16%
- Vikings: <1%
- Lions: 42.9% (-7.5%)
- Packers: 41.3% (+4.5%)
- Bears: 15.9% (+3.4%)
- Vikings: 0.0% (-0.3%)
- Packers: 45% (+1%)
- Lions: 32% (-2%)
- Bears: 24% (+2%)
- Vikings: <1%
The Packers have essentially overtaken the Lions as the favorites to win the division, significantly so in the NYT and ESPN models. The Vegas odds now reflect this, too (per FanDuel):
- Packers: +135
- Lions: +170
- Bears: +260
- Vikings: +30,000
But, again, here’s how much can swing based on the Thanksgiving game:
If the Lions win:
- Lions NFC North odds go from 33% to 52%
- Packers NFC North odds from 51% to 32%
If the Packers win:
- Lions NFC North odds go from 33% to 11%
- Packers NFC North odds from 51% to 73%
Detroit goes from NFC North favorite (52%) to extreme long odds (11%) to win the division depending on the outcome on Thursday.
Super Bowl odds
- 4% (-2%) to win the Super Bowl
- 11.6% (-2.0%) to appear in the Super Bowl
- 6.6% (-1.4%) to win the Super Bowl
- 10% (no change) to make the Super Bowl
The Lions’ chance to win the Super Bowl is somewhere between 4-7 percent, which is only a small decline from last week. The odds are still obviously lower than you’d hope, but the running theme here is that the Lions can change a lot with a win this week against the Packers.
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