Whether you call it overrated, underrated, or fairly rated, Matthew Stafford is having one of the most unusual seasons by a quarterback in recent history. For example, Stafford’s last 18 touchdown passes have come while the Rams are either tied or have the lead. It’s been almost two months since Stafford threw a touchdown while the Rams were trailing and 26 of his 30 touchdown passes have given or maintained a lead.
The lesson there is simply that the 2025 Rams are perhaps the best team that Stafford has ever been on and also that he hasn’t done anything to hurt the team, throwing 308 consecutive passes without an interception and 27 touchdowns since he was last picked off. Incredible.
But does everyone agree that Stafford’s 2025 season is that incredible or MVP worthy?
“Only” 5th in QB efficiency
Kevin Cole, a former employee at PFF with over 40,000 twitter followers, posted a list that showed Stafford has a lower EPA (expected points added) per play than four other quarterbacks: Jordan Love, Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, and Patrick Mahomes.
Several in the replies wondered how Stafford could be that low despite a 30/2 TD:INT ratio:
“What’s the story on Stafford despite the TD/INT? I know he’s done it on higher volume than the others but still. A lot of goal line touchdowns are inflating his numbers? Cant really remember a case like this for all people accused Rodgers when he lead in EPA/play anyway in 2020”
Cole’s answer to that question specifically comes down to Stafford’s lack of rushing ability and a more pedestrian yards per attempt than some of those QBs ahead of him:
“The most fundamental basic rate stat is yards per attempt. Stafford is 8th at 7.6 (Darnold first at 9.3). Every other box score stats adjusts up or down this number. Stafford moves up based on TD/INT and a low sack rate. He’s second in adjusted ney (sic) yards per attempt (ANY/A), which factors in all those box score stats. He’s lower by EPA/play than ANY/A because he has negative rushing value. I include scrambles and designed QB runs in EPA/play. He’s at -7 EPA on those, whereas most top quarterbacks are positive”
Furthermore, Cole explained that by the measure of EPA (think of it as a value system for each play individually based on down, distance, game situation), Stafford is the NFL leader on all throws that result in either a touchdown or an interception, but just 10th on all other throws. Well behind leader Mahomes for all throws that don’t result in either a touchdown or an interception. Take that for what it’s worth.
“Stafford is 1st in EPA on TDs/INTs throws at +57.5. Jared Goff is second at +49.2 He’s 10th on all other dropbacks at +37.1. Patrick Mahomes is first at +99.2 TD/INT gets a lot of focus, but it’s not as big of a driver of efficiency as what happens on all the other dropbacks”
“If you want to make it simple: Stafford is 8th in yards per attempt. That’s really the easiest starting point to evaluating quarterback efficiency. He then gets boosted for strong TD/INT and low sack rate. If you look at all play involvements and not just passes, Stafford is hurt by basically no scramble production and a couple highly negative EPA sneak failures.”
Essentially the debate around Cole’s tweet is the value of TD:INT ratio, which Stafford is dominating by a huge margin over all other players, versus everything else that happens on the field throughout the game.
When you isolate the 32 passes by Stafford that resulted in one of those two plays, you obviously get 30 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions, which is amazing.
Stafford has also thrown 341 other passes this season. On those passes, Stafford is completing just under 64% of his attempts (league average comp% is 64.8%) and he’s worth less than zero as a runner. Rushing ability may only be a fraction of a quarterback’s value, but think of how much worse off the Chiefs would be if Mahomes had zero rushing ability. At a time when Mahomes is not able to get as much done in the air, he’s saving Kansas City at times with his legs.
Drake Maye is completing an NFL-best 71% of his passes and he’s also a valuable runner.
Stafford’s advantage? Bro, the guy has 30 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. It’s as simple as that. There’s nothing wrong with a passer having elite passing numbers where it matters most.
But the argument is simply based around those two ideas: Stafford is eating Thanksgiving Turkey when it’s time to score and other quarterbacks are only hanging around his value because they have some dual threat ability and are completing more yards per pass attempt.
However, the critics don’t stop there because yes, Davante Adams has scored a lot of short touchdowns.
“Maybe it’s a Davante thing”
Twitter user Scott Kacsmar, who I think used to write at Football Outsiders, pointed out that the last time a QB threw this many 1-yard touchdowns was 2020. The QB was Aaron Rodgers and his top receiver at the goal line was Davante Adams. Rodgers won MVP and it looks like Stafford is about to do the same.
Kacsmar argues that the MVP award shouldn’t just go to the QB who scores the most touchdowns:
“They call me a hater when it’s just using facts/logic to explain a statistical anomaly. 2020 Rodgers set a single-season record with 8 1-yd TD passes. Stafford’s already up to 6 with 6 games to go. Maybe it’s a Davante Adams thing, and maybe he’s the one who told Stafford “you know they’ll give you MVP if you load up on these passes like Aaron did in 2020-21”. Stafford has thrown 8 of the team’s 13 TDs from the 1-2 yard line, and 7-of-8 came on 1st or 2nd down. We already pivoted to “total TDs” last year to gift Josh Allen an MVP because of Tush Push TDs. It’s not a good development for how the award should be viewed.“
As you may have seen in the screenshot posted above of every Stafford TD pass, his season has been a tale of two parts:
- During Stafford’s first 12 touchdown passes, he had one 1-yarder and everything else was at least 8 yards
- During Stafford’s most recent 18 touchdown passes, he has seven 1 or 2-yarders, and thirteen within 6 yards
Stafford now has eight 1-4 yard touchdown passes to Adams.
By the way, 1-yard touchdown passes are still not easy!
Sorry, if I don’t put this in a big header some of you are going to scroll right down to the comments to yell at me.
By the way, 1-yard touchdown passes are still not easy!
Got it?
There just happens to be one guy named Davante Adams who leads the NFL in touchdown catches and has now done so three times since 2020. Every other team is allowed to throw first and second down passes to a weapon at the goal line if they want to but not every other team has Stafford and Adams.
Is it true that Adams has unlocked some sort of “cheat code” at the goal line for Stafford? Of course. Stafford has six 1-yard touchdown passes in 2025. Stafford had two of them in 2024, one in 2023, one in 2022, and one in 2021. That’s more 1-yard touchdown passes in 2025 than in ALL OF HIS OTHER RAMS GAMES COMBINED.
Even if you include playoffs, he had just one 1-yard touchdown pass in the postseason: The game-winner to Cooper Kupp against the Bengals in the Super Bowl!
1-yard touchdown passes are allowed and Adams is who you go get if you want your quarterback to score more touchdowns around the end zone, especially if your lead running back has been known to fumble huge scoring opportunities in that area.
Kyren Williams is still 12th among running backs in touchdowns (6) this year, so Stafford and Adams aren’t quite vultures either.
Still, some fans are personally offended that Stafford is being called the MVP frontrunner. In reply to Ben Baldwin on Twitter, a user named atNFLPinnacleBeat says:
“people tell you jordan love is mid being propped up by scheme (no receivers) and with straight face tell you stafford is having an all time season.”
To be fair, it was Baldwin who said that Maye should be the MVP, not Stafford, because Stafford has Sean McVay and Maye doesn’t:
But by Baldwin’s own tweet as evidence, the Rams are 30th in pass protection, so what kind of supporting cast is that?
Baldwin also essentially clowns Stafford by arguing that he’s still not as good as Jared Goff was in 2017 and 2018:
Baldwin hedges his bet by saying that Stafford “is having a great season” but won’t let go of the fact that he’s not getting “docked” because of McVay and Puka Nacua/Adams:
So Baldwin ignores the problems of the offensive line, dismisses how dominant the Rams have been this season largely thanks to dominance at the goal line with perfect fade/no-look passes by Stafford, and ignores that maybe L.A. has had a lead for such a long time because they have the third-fewest turnovers in the NFL.
Stafford has also managed a sack rate of only 3.87% despite his 30th-ranked pass protection because of how quickly he gets rid of the ball, whereas Maye has a sack rate of 9.44% behind a top-10 offensive line by the same measurements.
MVP arguments can be very dumb. Does analytics dumb them down even more?
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