After a miserable loss to the Green Bay Packers, a game in which J.J. McCarthy continued to struggle, the Minnesota Vikings face an increasingly difficult path with McCarthy’s development. The increased difficulty comes as McCarthy appears to have lost confidence after six games of ongoing accuracy and other issues.
The Vikings’ game plan against the Packers was a conservative one offensively, looking to run the ball and take the pressure off McCarthy after rallying veterans around McCarthy to help boost his confidence earlier in the week. It didn’t work.
The Viking’s scoring drives stalled in the first half resulting in long field goals. McCarthy never really seemed comfortable or in-rhythm when called upon to pass, and had just two completions of significance. In the second half the Vikings fell behind and were forced to pass more, but McCarthy simply wasn’t up to the task. The Vikings second half offensive drives amounted to three 3-and-outs and two interceptions. 15 plays total.
McCarthy appeared to be noticeably demoralized toward the end of the game and while both McCarthy and Kevin O’Connell tried to put a good spin on it after the game, clearly McCarthy’s confidence has been shot. He continues to hold the ball too long often times and accuracy remains an issue as his second interception was way off target.
Bottom line with McCarthy right now is that he isn’t sufficiently functional as a starting quarterback right now and his trajectory after six games is downward. Matt Waldman, in writing that McCarthy was the most difficult/polarizing quarterback evaluation of the 2024 draft class, had this evaluation which seems prescient at the moment:
McCarthy’s development hinges on two things: 1) How accurate is he really? And 2) How well can he address his decision-making/processing gaffes?
If the high-end positives are an indicator that he’ll address most of his flaws, McCarthy can become a franchise starter with Pro Bowl production potential. If the McCarthy proves accurate enough but he can only make minor-to-moderate improvements with his decision-making and processing gaffes, he’ll need a great infrastructure of surrounding talent and scheme fit to sustain starter production and that may only translate to McCarthy becoming a high-end journeyman starter.
If McCarthy can’t overcome his flaws and he’s not accurate, he’ll be the Zach Wilson 2.0 that’s the version we’ve seen of Wilson thus far in his NFL career. My projection is Jake Plummer: A player who will be expected to become the franchise who eventually figures it out but not without some difficult times and possibly a team change for him to get there.
At this point, McCarthy is on a worst case, Zach Wilson 2.0 trajectory. It’s still early- he’s only had six starts- but his level of play right now isn’t adequate for the Vikings to play competitive football. Kevin O’Connell is trying to game plan around McCarthy’s weak points by running the ball, but even with limited attempts and a good ground game McCarthy is struggling to get the Vikings in the end zone. And as the Vikings inevitably fall behind and need to lean into the pass game, things unravel as McCarthy’s struggles are highlighted.
McCarthy’s current level of play and declining confidence creates a dilemma for Kevin O’Connell. At some point playing McCarthy could become counterproductive if he isn’t operating at an adequate level for success. Playing in that circumstance could simply continue to damage McCarthy’s confidence. On the other hand, McCarthy needs more experience to develop into the franchise quarterback the Vikings expect him to be.
The question for O’Connell is whether another week of preparation is enough to put McCarthy in position to change his trajectory, or if he needs more time to work on his fundamentals. The Vikings are not contending for the postseason, so that isn’t a consideration. But the best path for preparing McCarthy for success and to change his trajectory should be.
In the meantime, the Vikings travel to Seattle next weekend and the contrast between Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy, while unfair given the differences in their career development, will likely be painful for Vikings fans and probably Vikings’ players, truth be told, as the Vikings could’ve extended Darnold.
Huge Challenge for Kevin O’Connell
Kevin O’Connell famously said that organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations, and McCarthy’s development will put that to the test. O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah started scouting quarterbacks the first year they were hired, honing their process until the time was right to draft a young quarterback. They eventually moved on from Kirk Cousins and signed Sam Darnold as a bridge to J.J. McCarthy, who led them to a 14-3 record last season, while McCarthy spent his rookie season on injured reserve. Daniel Jones was also signed to the practice squad near the end of the season. But they decided McCarthy was the future and didn’t make Darnold a competitive extension offer. They made a competitive offer to Daniel Jones, but Jones felt he had a better chance to start in Indianapolis so he took their offer instead. They also passed on Aaron Rodgers. They did sign Sam Howell, but he didn’t work out, so they signed Carson Wentz off the couch in late August. They also signed Max Brosmer as a UDFA, who impressed and surprisingly made the team. He’s now the backup quarterback.
That’s a lot of quarterback decision-making, but right now the only two good ones were the one to move on from Cousins for Sam Darnold and signing Max Brosmer as a UDFA.
Overall, O’Connell and Adolfo-Mensah passed on a lot of quarterbacks in favor of McCarthy, who is the worst starting quarterback in the league right now. They took advantage of a cheap quarterback contract to spend big in free agency, believing they were contenders with McCarthy at the helm. That was not the case and this season has been lost. All that puts tremendous pressure on O’Connell and Adolfo-Mensah to make it right and soon. And they’ll have their decision to move on from Sam Darnold shoved in their face as the Vikings travel to Seattle next weekend, which will make it worse.
Kevin O’Connell had the reputation as the quarterback whisperer by helping to elevate Kirk Cousins’ play and transforming Sam Darnold’s career, and even for his brief time with Daniel Jones, who has also seen his career rejuvenated this season in Indianapolis. But right now McCarthy’s poor and declining performance hangs like an albatross around O’Connell’s neck.
Credit O’Connell for staying the course with McCarthy’s development, not losing patience, and making adjustments to try to help put McCarthy in better positions to succeed. But there has to be some frustration with McCarthy’s performance as well. McCarthy seems to struggle most with the type of offense O’Connell wants to run, namely play-action passing, targeting the middle of the field, and executing deep shots. And if McCarthy is unable to show considerable improvement over the remainder of the season, it’s unlikely O’Connell will roll with McCarthy as the unchallenged starter next year. Who the competition is and how they may be acquired remains to be seen, but McCarthy will likely need to win a quarterback competition to maintain his starting job.
At the end of the day, the Vikings have over half their 2026 salary cap invested in an offense that is useless without a capable quarterback and will continue to underachieve without a good one. That will weigh in organizational decision-making. Failing the rest of the team, and fan base, developing a quarterback that may never elevate the team is an organizational concern as well. There were rumors of some discontent among players during the offseason around quarterback decision making.
That’s why McCarthy needs to show improvement and likely has just six games to do so or risk losing his starting job. McCarthy has gone out of his way to thank teammates for standing with him through his struggles, which have been a major reason behind the team’s disappointing and now lost season. He is well liked, but everyone knows the NFL is a performance business and there are limits to grace periods for underperforming starters. Part of McCarthy’s evaluation this offseason should include a reassessment of his trajectory and ceiling.
Regime Survival May Depend on Making It Right
Both Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah have recently been extended, but they’ll need to make the Vikings quarterback situation right if they’re to have a long term future with the organization. They’ve made a lot of high-profile decisions around the quarterback position and O’Connell’s coaching metier is the quarterback position, so not having a good quarterback reflects directly on O’Connell and Adolfo-Mensah.
The 49ers stayed with head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch despite their high profile and expensive failure in trading up for Trey Lance in 2021. They were saved by 7th round pick Brock Purdy working out instead. It’s unclear if McCarthy doesn’t work out if Max Brosmer could prove to be another Brock Purdy, but I doubt O’Connell and Adolfo-Mensah will count on that in the upcoming offseason. They almost certainly will bring in a veteran to compete for the starting position. Early rumors point to Mac Jones, who’s done well filling in for Purdy this season with the 49ers. He’s set to be a free agent at the end of the season. The Vikings acquired Sam Darnold after a season as a backup with the 49ers.
In any case, the preferred outcome is for McCarthy to show improvement and ultimately realize expectations as a high-end franchise quarterback. But right now, McCarthy needs to show a lot more on the field over the next six games to keep his job and the prospect of the Vikings having a high-end franchise quarterback leading the team deep into the postseason seems a long way off.
We’ll see what the rest of the season brings.
Follow me on X/Bluesky @wludford
See More:
