If there was one game I had chalked up as a loss for the 2025 New York Giants before the season even began, it was this road trip to play the Detroit Lions. The Lions are loaded and were a preseason favorite to contend for a Super Bowl berth. They’re a very physical team and bullied the Giants when they last played in 2022. The Lions lost both coordinators in the off-season, though, and they found themselves on the fringe of the playoff hunt at 6-4 entering the game. Still, with Jaxson Dart not yet cleared to return and a jayvee starting secondary and linebacking corps, the Giants figured to be raw meat for the Lions.
Well, surprise, surprise, this was anything but a blowout. But no surprise: Another blown 10-point fourth quarter lead and another loss. The Giants are nothing if not consistent. What did we learn from the Giants’ 34-27 overtime loss to the Lions?
The feeling is that Mike Kafka has little chance to be selected as the Giants’ next head coach once the season ends. One problem is, the other contenders are flunking the interview already. Last week Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley was supposed to strut his stuff against the Giants’ offense, and the Giants, without their starting quarterback and best wide receiver, moved the ball well despite a fierce wind and they almost won. Next!
This week, it was former Giant Kelvin Sheppard trying his luck as defensive coordinator against the Giants’ offense under more clement conditions, and the Giants racked up 399 passing yards and 122 rushing yards. Next!
I can quibble with some of Kafka’s tendencies as a play caller. In particular, the Giants’ offensive line is not great at run blocking overall, and Kafka, when deep in his own territory, seems to have this tendency to run the ball on first and second down and get the Giants’ offense into third-and-long situations. In his defense, the Giants do seem to eventually wear out opposing defenses and run a lot more effectively in the second half. Other than that, though, Kafka is a fairly aggressive play caller. In the absence of his best offensive players, he dialed up some creative plays today, including the never-before-seen Jameis Winston-handoff-to-Gunner Olszewski-pass-to-Jameis TD play. It made people forget about the earlier toss-to-Devin Singletary-toss-back-to-Jameis-39 yard TD pass to Wan’Dale Robinson.
You can disagree with his strategy late in the fourth quarter when the Giants had fourth-and-goal at the 6-yard line and chose to go for the TD to ice the game rather than kick the field goal to go up six points and force Detroit to score a TD to win outright. In fact, the right answer is not obvious. Here are two different analytics tools, one from Ben Baldwin of rbsdm.com and the other from ESPN Analytics. They come to different conclusions about the right call:
Of more importance for a head coach, Kafka seems to have motivated this team to play hard despite the season having been lost weeks ago. He appears to be in control on the sideline, and his calm demeanor contrasts with that of his predecessor. The Giants’ offense, arguably without its three best skill players, is putting points up every week against supposedly tough opposing defenses. In the locker room, there are small signs that Kafka is trying to change the mood and emphasize accountability. The defense is at least mixing things up more, if not necessarily being more effective.
Eventually he is going to have to start winning games to have any chance to return. If he doesn’t, though, he might get a head coaching position elsewhere.
Take my rushing defense – please
For the third time this season, the Giants’ defense allowed an opponent to rush for more than 200 yards (237 by the Lions today; the others were the opener in Washington and the loss in Philadelphia). They have only held an opponent under 100 yards rushing twice all season. Jahmyr Gobbs by himself had 219 rushing yards today, including a 49-yarder for a TD in the fourth quarter and a 69-yarder for the winning score in overtime.
It’s a consistent problem with this team. Gibbs was untouched on his 69-yard TD run up the middle to open overtime. On his earlier 49-yard TD run, Gibbs got through the Giants’ defensive line without being touched, then Dane Belton took a poor angle as Gibbs burst through the line and was easily shed by Gibbs, then Cor’Dale Flott couldn’t play off his block and lay a hand on Gibbs, and then the bigger Jevon Holland couldn’t play off his block and was barely able to touch Gibbs on the way to the end zone.
You may notice that I didn’t mention the off-ball linebackers. They were about as off-ball as you can be – they didn’t get within two yards of Gibbs as he got through the line and split them. Here’s a quick quiz: Tell me the last time a Giants’ linebacker made a great play. I’m not sure I know the answer.
Going back to the fourth-and-6 decision, both fourth down bots agreed on one thing: Whatever choice Kafka made, the Giants had no worse than a 67% chance of winning the game. For the Baldwin bot, even failing on fourth down, the Giants had more than a 50% chance of winning. Neither bot seems to properly account for the Giants’ awful rush defense, nor do they account for the gods who decree that whenever the Giants need an opponent to miss a last minute kick from as long as or longer than they have ever made one, they make the kick.
Make no mistake, the defense, and especially the run defense, is the main reason the Giants are 2-10. You can blame that on the predictability of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, although it seemed to me that he played less man and more zone today and blitzed a little more often than he had recently. Maybe you can blame it on a pass defense that has been wracked with injuries and wasn’t playing great to begin with. Nothing, though – nothing – has caused this team to be 2-10 instead of 7-5 and in the playoff hunt more than the run defense. How much of it is the coaches, how much the players, and how much the injuries, is hard to say. What I will say, though, is that it’s long past due that Joe Schoen begin to take the linebacker position seriously.
Sign Jameis Winston to a long-term contract
If the Giants can’t win, at least are we not entertained? There are few quarterbacks more fun to watch than Jameis Winston. All indications are that he is a great teammate. More importantly, though, the man can play. Yes, he throws interceptions, and he threw one today, but the guy can move an offense. He makes all the throws, he can read defenses, he competes like crazy, he’s a leader, and he will do anything to win.
Winston threw for 366 yards against this Lions defense that was third best in the NFL in passing yards allowed coming into the game. He did this for a team that had no true WR1 on the field. He had completions of 30 yards or more to four different receivers today (Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, Tyrone Tracy, and Isaiah Hodgins), in addition to having a 33-yard TD reception himself.
Winston does not get the respect he deserves. It’s not his fault the Giants lost the last two weeks. He did everything he needed to do to secure the win, and the defense, as usual, gave it away.
Theo Johnson and Darius Alexander are becoming threats
There’s been some frustration on these “pages” (including from me) about Theo Johnson’s dropped passes since he became a Giant, and rightfully so. The one in Philadelphia on third down early in the season when the game was still competitive and the Giants were driving arguably turned that game around…not that I think the Giants were going to win, but they at least had a chance at that point. Coming into today, Johnson’s four drops were tied for fifth among tight ends, which doesn’t sound great for your TE1. It’s worth noting, though, that among the four who had more drops were Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and rookie sensation Tyler Warren. So maybe we’re being a little hard on Theo. In support of that sentiment, Johnson’s 5 TDs were also tied for fifth most in the NFL with George Kittle and Mark Andrews.
Sunday, Johnson had three catches for 77 yards. That’s not just a move-the-sticks player, that’s an offensive threat. In the last three games, Johnson has caught 13 balls in 17 targets for 188 yards. He may finally be starting to mature into the player the Giants thought he could be.
Another player who got noticed for the right reasons today was rookie Darius Alexander. Alexander’s run defense hasn’t been up to par, but his pass rush is starting to come around. Alexander had two sacks Sunday to give him 2.5 on the season. Coming into today, only two other rookie IDLs had as many as three sacks. Alexander came out of the MAC Conference and thus didn’t play against the toughest competition. It’s probably a significant adjustment for him going up against NFL offensive linemen. It’s possible, though, that the Giants have something here.
See More:
