The time has come. The time is now.
This Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings will battle the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Week 12 matchup holds the fate of the 2025 Minnesota Vikings season. At 4-6, there is little room for error if the Vikings want to have a chance of vying for a playoff spot. A win against the Green Bay Packers would go a long way, and improve the Vikings’ division record to 3-1.
The only thing that is keeping Minnesota afloat in the playoff rankings is that divisional record, which could have a tremendous impact in determining tie breakers at the end of the season. Minnesota is currently in last place in the NFC North Division standings and 11th overall in the NFC behind the 4-5-1 Dallas Cowboys. If the season ended today, the Vikings would hold the 12th pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
According to NFL.com, the Minnesota Vikings currently have a 6% chance of making the playoffs. With a loss, that drops to a 2% chance, and a win could double their chances to 12%. Slim-to-none would be how I’d categorize their shot to make a run at the playoffs. The Vikings have some winnable games down the stretch and have the opportunity to be a trap game for the Seattle Seahawks.
However, before we can even start talking about playoff chances, the focus needs to be on the Green Bay Packers. In order to pull off a win in blustery Green Bay, J.J. McCarthy needs to put together his first complete game of the season. In order to do that, he needs some help from his coaching staff and veteran teammates.
It all depends on your perspective.
I still believe J.J. McCarthy is our franchise quarterback. In this world of instant gratification, people seem to just not have the patience to allow things to develop. As the old saying goes, good things come to those who wait. I understand that expectations were high, but as Vikings fans, we know expectations rarely coincide with reality when it comes to the purple and gold. As an organization, the Vikings have been dealt a tough hand but have also not done McCarthy any favors.
Maybe this is a hot take, but J.J. McCarthy’s issues stem from one thing: being behind schedule. Sam Darnold was always going to be the starter last season, and McCarthy would have time to work on his fundamentals, such as posture in the pocket and maintaining his base. It’s clear that “mental reps” could not possibly replicate the value of physical ones.
If we lived in an alternate reality where McCarthy had an entire season of practice reps with a full offseason, things would look very different than they are now. This is speculative, of course, but I believe the narrative would be much different had more things gone right for McCarthy. However, there are some ugly truths about McCarthy’s game.
It has been tough sledding.
With all this talk about reality versus expectations, let me take you behind the great NFL+ paywall to talk about some insights in regard to J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings’ Week 12 Matchup. The enigmatic quarterback for the Vikings has shown some interesting trends:
J.J. McCarthy is the only qualified quarterback to have completed a higher percentage of their passes when under pressure (54.3%) than when kept clean (52.1%) this season.
There is an ugly component to this statistic, as well as a promising one. A 52.1% passer rating with a clean pocket is not ideal and looks terrible on paper. However, as I’ve said before, context matters. According to Pro Football Reference, McCarthy has been pressured on 29% of dropbacks this season, which is the highest mark of any quarterback in the NFL. Feeling consistent pressure takes a toll on a player throughout the season, which can cause them to hurry up their mechanics even when there is ample time to throw. We have seen that happen to McCarthy this season, and as the offensive line solidifies, hopefully, this trend improves.
The promising one is that he is able to make throws when under pressure, which speaks to his poise in the pocket. It is well-documented that McCarthy gets too amped up during some plays, causing him to lose accuracy on his passes. It is also documented that in the fourth quarter, McCarthy can make plays to win a game.
He is also the only quarterback out of the 34 qualifiers to have completed less than 60% of their passes when kept clean, as rookie Dillion Gabriel ranks next-lowest with a 61.3% completion percentage on such attempts. Of McCarthy’s 8 total interceptions, 7 of them have come on passes made from a clean pocket.
Matchup: Opposing passers have averaged the 2nd-fewest air yards per attempt (8.0) but have recorded the 2nd-highest completion percentage (59.8%) on passes under pressure against the Packers’ defense this season.
The Packers have the personnel to get to the quarterback, with Micah Parsons leading the way. Green Bay’s tendency seems to be bringing pressure to force quick, short throws, and those are throws in which McCarthy has found success.
J.J. McCarthy and Justin Jefferson have connected on just 11 of 24 downfield passes for 209 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this season (10+ air yards).
McCarthy’s 45.8% completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt average are the lowest figures by a Vikings quarterback with at least 10 such attempts targeting Jefferson across his six combined seasons in the NFL. Despite the high volume of interceptions targeting Jefferson, McCarthy has been even less efficient targeting Jordan Addison downfield, as he’s completed just 4 of 18 passes (22.2%) for 89 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
There is no time like the present to improve. This needs to be better, and hopefully this trend can change beginning in Week 12.
J.J. McCarthy has faced 17 consecutive pressures without taking a sack, the 2nd-longest active streak in the NFL entering Week 12, trailing only Jacoby Brissett (24).
Across his first 48 career pressures faced, McCarthy was sacked 15 times, resulting in a pressure-to-sack rate that would rank highest in the NFL (31.3%). Despite his ongoing streak of avoiding sacks under pressure, his season-long pressure-to-sack rate of 23.1% still ranks 8th-highest in the NFL.
This statistic includes a combination of poor offensive line play and McCarthy’s tendency to hold on to the ball but is also a testament to his ability to extend plays. J.J. ‘s mobility is an underrated aspect of his game, and I think KO needs to utilize that ability instead of calling plays like Kirk Cousins is behind center.
In the grand scheme of things.
As I’ve spoken about before, my expectation was that we would see a more run-heavy offense from Kevin O’Connell. However, the opposite is true. Week 11 saw a run percentage rate of 40.7%, two percentage points higher than the season average of 38.7%, which is the fourth lowest in the entire NFL. With a revamped offensive line, an extension for Aaron Jones and a trade and extension for Jordan Mason, you would think more emphasis would be on the run.
In order for Minnesota to have a chance this season, we need to see a philosophical shift in the offensive strategy. McCarthy should be throwing 20-25 times a game, MAXIMUM. These should be mostly high percentage throws to help move the sticks. Kevin O’Connell wants the home run ball, which is an awesome strategy when the quarterback can throw on target on deep passes and receivers haul in the passes that hit them directly in the hands. Although I have faith that he has the ability to turn things around, Kevin O’Connell has not done McCarthy any favors. I am all for high expectations, but maybe too much has been on McCarthy’s shoulders. The current system is not working, even though KO is consistently able to develop plays that scheme open wide receivers.
It’s not working, in part, due to missed opportunities. Redzone inefficiency and an apparent allergy to running on third and short are likely the main contributors. As it stands, among teams that have played 10 games this season, Minnesota is tied for the 6th fewest offensive touchdowns at 21. Opportunities missed on goal-to-go situations have hurt tremendously this season, as a couple of conversions here and there possibly change a couple of losses into wins. We need to see more of an effort to run the ball, even if that means calling designed rushing plays for McCarthy.
Can we win the turnover battle? Please?
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings continue to be ineffective in causing turnovers. With only three interceptions on the season, this year’s squad is not producing in the same way as it did last season. Kevin O’Connell has talked recently about the turnovers coming in bunches, and what better time to start that trend than in enemy territory against a division opponent? Brian Flores needs to channel last season’s game plan against Green Bay, one in which his squad forced three Jordan Love interceptions. Love has been much more careful with the ball this season, but I think turnovers are going to come in bunches for him starting next week and continue for a decent stretch.
I don’t know what is going to happen in this border battle. Divisional games are almost always competitive. And with their backs against the wall, we should see the Vikings’ best performance of the season. There is no more time to wait. It all has to start coming together right now. The margin for error is zero. It may be surprising, all things considered, but the division is still within reach. The Bears definitely have their flaws and have had to rely on last-second wins a lot this season. The Vikings went into Detroit to beat the defending division champs. If they can do the same to Green Bay, there is still hope.
I am not giving up on this season and still think we can make a playoff push. However, if Minnesota doesn’t walk out of Lambeau with a win, then there is nothing short of a miracle that would have to occur for this team to be playing meaningful January football. We can cross that bridge when we come to it. As of right now, the Vikings’ season is very much alive, and all it will take to keep it that way is to be 1-0. I think we see a bounce-back game from this offense and some turnovers created by the defense.
Until Next Time.
Skol,
- Jesse M
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