Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1) at 4:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-3.5/Total: 47.5
What is the line telling you:
Originally, the Eagles opened as a 3.5-road favorite over the Cowboys, with the total set at 51.5. But we have a half-point shift on the Eagles’ side by several sports books that now have Philadelphia sitting at -3. The real market shockwave has been the total, which dropped four full points to 47.5, where it currently rests. The Eagles have caught breaks all season when it comes to health, walking into matchups against the Packers, Lions, Rams, Chiefs and Broncos with the clear advantage. Not this week. Both Philly and Dallas were hit with identical 89 out of 100 health scores. The Eagles are down Lane Johnson and it looks unlikely Cam Jurgens will play or suit up. Handicapping this game is tricky. It’s tough stepping in front of Philly, which has the second-best ATS record in the NFL at 7-3, while Dallas sits at 5-5 against the closing Vegas number. This is a divisional road game, and the betting market is absolutely peaking on Philadelphia. Dallas owns one of the most explosive offenses in football, second in points per game just behind the Colts. The Eagles have only put up 26 points the last two games.
Bottom line:
You combine the Eagles’ offense the last two games, with the key injuries on the offensive line, it becomes a tough spot for Philly to cover the spread. Dallas is at home, with the matchup and the momentum lining up, we like the Cowboys here at 3.5. It’s the right side. If you can’t protect your quarterback with two starting offensive linemen out, what happens is your quarterback gets tackled behind the line of scrimmage and more chances for throwing an interception, which Jalen Hurts has only turned the ball over once this season. The team that turns the ball over loses 68% of the time, and the Eagles have changed their approach. They throw less down the field, less passing yards for Hurts means a higher chance of winning with the Eagles’ defense. All the Eagles really need are two or three big plays a game. The Eagles are ranked 12th in the NFL in time of possession, averaging 30:47 a game. The lower they go on that time of possession chart the greater risk someone on their defense could get hurt.
Prop bets for the game:
CeeDee Lamb anytime TD (+130)
Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-115)
Jalen Hurts over 200 passing yards (-120)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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