The Detroit Lions are trying to get back on track and stay in the NFC North race after a disappointing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. This week, the 2-9 New York Giants are in town, and despite their record, they have been described as scrappy and “better than their record.”
Are the Lions on upset alert this week, or are they still the statistical favorite that the -10.5 line in this game suggests? Let’s preview Lions vs. Giants and make a prediction.
It’s On Paper time!
Lions pass offense (9th in DVOA) vs. Giants pass defense (20th)
Jared Goff suffered his worst game of the season last week against a smothering Eagles pass defense. That wasn’t all that unexpected, given how much Philly has stymied even the best quarterbacks in the league. Still, it was disheartening to see Goff struggle, and the Lions offensive line seem overwhelmed again.
Let’s start with the offensive line, where concerns are high about how much of a step back that unit has taken in 2025. The pass protection stats this year, admittedly, aren’t great.
- 24th in PFF’s team pass blocking grade (59.8)
- 26th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (56%)
- 21st in pressure rate allowed (35.5%)
- 14th in sack rate (6.0%)
Detroit’s saving grace when it comes to avoiding sacks is the fact that Lions quarterbacks get rid of the football faster (2.49 seconds) than any other team. They heavily rely on their receivers to get yards after the catch, and they often do. The Lions rank second in YAC (1,495 yards).
And for all the pass protection issues, the Lions’ pass offense still operates pretty well. They rank:
- Third in passer rating (111.1)
- Fifth in yards per attempt (8.0)
- Eighth in dropback EPA (0.188)
- Eighth in success rate (50.7%)
By the looks of this chart, the Giants sport a pretty average pass defense, maybe a bit below average. They’ve been on a bit of a concerning trend, though, allowing a passer rating above 115 in three of their last four games, despite holding each of those opponents below 225 net passing yards. Overall, the Giants rank slightly below average in the most significant efficiency metrics:
- 22nd in passer rating (96.6)
- 13th in yards per attempt (6.9)
- 23rd in dropback EPA (0.148)
- 19th in success rate (47.9%)
But as many of you likely know, their pass rush is what to really be concerned about. Brian Burns ranks second in the NFL with 13.0 sacks, and rookie Abdul Carter has been disruptive despite only having 0.5 sacks on the year. I know that sounds weird, but let’s compare some non-sack stats for Burns and Carter:
- Burns: 17% pass rush win rate (14th in NFL)
- Carter: 17% pass rush win rate (15th in NFL)
- Burns: 37 pressures (t-18th)
- Carter: 25 pressures (t-27th)
And let us not forget Dexter Lawrence in the middle. While he only has 22 pressures (t-27th among DTs), his PFF win rate of 14.2% ranks him top-10 at his position.
Player to watch: Burns. The Giants’ secondary is not very good, and they run a lot of man—where Goff excels at (third highest passer rating vs. man compared to seventh vs. zone). So New York’s best chance of winning this matchup is to pressure Goff early and often, and Burns is capable of that.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. Detroit’s passing offense is still a top-10 unit going up against a below-average defense this week. There should be a fair amount of success. However, they will need to avoid the disruptive plays. And for everything that the Giants do well in terms of their pass rush, they actually create disruptive plays at a pretty low rate. They rank just 24th in sack rate (5.4%) and have just four interceptions on the season (t-27th).
Lions run offense (8th) vs. Giants run defense (32nd)
The Lions’ run game is all over the dang place. One week, they’re one of the most explosive units in football. The next, they’re fully incapable of getting any sort of rhythm on the ground. It’s a little hard to comprehend at times because their efficiency doesn’t completely line up with the strength of the defense they’re facing, either.
Regardless, I think the best way to categorize the Lions’ rushing attack is average. Here’s where they rank in specific categories:
- 11th in yards per carry (4.6)
- 16th in rush EPA (-0.045)
- 22nd in success rate (40.5%)
Where they still succeed is creating explosives. While they only rank 22nd in rushes of 10+ yards (28), they are tied for fifth in 20+ yard rushes (nine) and t-second in rushes of 30+ yards (five).
This is the worst run defense in football, and it’s not all that close. I was going to list a bunch of stats that they’re terrible at, but Erik Schlitt already did it in his Honolulu Blueprint. Thanks for saving me the work, Erik.
- DVOA, run defense: 32nd
- Rush yards allowed per game: 149.9 (30th)
- Rush yards allowed per play: 5.5 ypc (32nd)
- EPA per rush allowed: 0.16 (32nd)
- Success rate: 46.2% (31st)
- 10+ rushing plays allowed: 52 (32nd)
- Rush yards allowed over expected: 455 (32nd)
- Yards before contact: 2.12 (32nd)
- Yards after contact: 3.46 (29th)
Making matters even worse for the Giants is that they’re trending in the wrong direction. Over the last five weeks, here’s how they’ve been performing:
- 876 rushing yards allowed (175.2 per game, 32nd)
- 6.0 yards per carry allowed (31st)
- 8 rushing touchdowns (t-most)
- 0.257 rush EPA (32nd)
- 50.8 success rate (31st)
They’re also susceptible to the big runs, allowing the most 20+ yard runs (12), and fourth-most rushes of 30+ yards (five).
Player to watch: Jahmyr Gibbs. The Giants aren’t good at either, but they’re much less effective at runs outside the tackles (+0.30 EPA/rush, 32nd) vs. rushes between the tackles (+0.02 EPA/rush, 28th).
Advantage: Lions +2.5. If the Lions can’t get the run game going this week, something is very, very wrong.
Giants pass offense (21st) vs. Lions pass defense (4th)
Note: Jaxson Dart started in Weeks 4-10
I’m going to write this section with the assumption that Dart is playing. He is progressing through the concussion protocol, and the assumption seems to be that he’ll play.
As you can see from his portion of the chart, he has given this Giants passing offense some real life. He has posted a passer rating of at least 90 in six of his seven starts, with a lone stinker vs. the Saints—his second career start—being the lone exception. Rather than give you team stats for the season, I’m going to focus on Dart’s individual rankings this year (note: these are out of 36 eligible QBs):
- 18th in passer rating (93.5)
- 22nd in yards per attempt (6.9)
- 13th in EPA/dropback (+0.06)
- 29th in completion percentage over expected (-3.3%)
I think it’s fair to, again, categorize this as an average passing attack. Though, like many young, mobile quarterbacks, Dart is susceptible to getting sacked. He’s averaging 2.6 sacks taken per game, which is 12th most in the NFL.
And that’s despite having pretty good pass protection. New York ranks seventh in PFF pass blocking grade (69.9) and 13th in pass block win rate.
The Lions’ pass defense has been a bit up-and-down this year, as well, but there’s been a lot more good than bad. And as you can see from the yardage column, they are rarely getting toasted through the air. They’re allowing just 192.1 passing yards per game (eighth) and just a 62.0 completion percentage (sixth). For the season, they rank:
- 15th in passer rating allowed (90.5)
- 11th in yards per attempt (11th)
- Eighth in dropback EPA (-0.003)
- Fourth in success rate (40.4%)
The advanced metrics paint this as a top-five pass defense, because it doesn’t give as much weight to explosive plays—where the Lions have allowed the third-most passing plays of 30+ yards (15).
Meanwhile, the Giants are above average at passing explosives. They rank t-11th in 30+ yard passing plays.
Still, on a down-to-down basis, the Lions pass defense has been near elite.
Player to watch: Theo Johnson. The Giants tight end has been one of Dart’s favorite targets, accounting for 261 of Dart’s 1,417 passing yards and half (five) of his passing touchdowns (10). Detroit has been decent against opposing tight ends with a strong linebacking corps, but Johnson—a second-year player—is a set of trusty hands for Dart.
Advantage: Lions +1. I’m a tad fearful of Dart escaping the pocket and creating a few explosive plays, even if Detroit has done a relatively good job containing mobile quarterbacks this year. But if the Lions are able to keep Dart in the pocket, I don’t think the Giants have enough talent at receiver (30th in PFF receiving grade) to beat Detroit’s sticky coverage (fourth in PFF grade).
Giants run offense (16th) vs. Lions run defense (9th)
If there’s a strength to this Giants team, it’s their rushing attack. Their 124.7 rushing yards per game ranks 10th in the NFL—and they’re right around there for most advanced metrics, as well:
- 19th in yards per carry (4.2)
- 10th in rush EPA (-0.028)
- 16th in success rate (42.2%)
You’d think their efficiency would drop off after losing rookie phenom Cam Skattebo in Week 8, but they’ve kept their rushing game strong in the last three weeks. Obviously, a lot of that is due to Dart, who is averaging 35.2 rushing yards a game (third among QBs—min. five starts) and 5.6 yards per carry (ninth).
But second-year back Tyrone Tracy is also having a decent year. In his three starts in the past three weeks, he’s rushed 38 times for 177 yards—a decent 4.7 yards per carry.
Surprisingly, they’ve been able to manage a decent run game despite some iffy run blocking. They rank just 18th in adjusted line yards, 18th in PFF run blocking grade, and 18th in run block win rate.
The Lions’ run defense has generally been very good this year. Maybe not as fantastic as we’ve seen in years past, but holding six of 10 opponents—including four of the last five—below 4.0 yards per carry is a solid accomplishment. For the season, they rank:
- Ninth in yards per carry (4.0)
- 10th in rush EPA (-0.108)
- 14th in success rate (40.6%)
Essentially, they’re a fringe top-10 rush defense by most metrics, but where they absolutely thrive is in the short-yardage situations. After last week’s fantastic performance, the Lions now rank first in power situation success rate by a large margin. Detroit is allowing just a 41% success rate in short-yardage situations. The Broncos are second-best at 56%. Nearly half the league (15 teams) is allowing a 70% success rate or higher
It’s worth noting the Giants rushing attack has a 75% success rate in those situations, which is the fifth-best. Strength vs. strength this week, but we saw what happened last week against an Eagles team that looked unstoppable in those situations.
Player to watch: Dart. All it takes is one player to lose contain and Dart could be off to the races. And I don’t believe for a second that the Giants are going to scale back his running, despite the concussion concerns.
Advantage: Draw. I know the Lions look to have a slight edge here, but the volatility of a guy like Dart gives me enough pause to lower my confidence a tad here.
Last week’s prediction
On Paper drops to a dreadful 4-6 on the year and 5-5 against the spread. I still don’t feel too bad about the prediction, though. I recognized that the Eagles’ run defense was starting to figure things out, and even concluded that there was this concern:
The Eagles defense is as healthy as ever, and we all saw what happened when the Vikings’ defense finally got healthy…
I expected some struggles on offense, but not quite as much as we saw. Still, a few fourth-down conversions and my 20-17 Lions prediction may not have been far off.
In the comment section, we had some negative nellies come out victorious. But no one was even close to the final score. In fact, the closest prediction was from our own Ryan Mathews, who predicted 21-17 Eagles. Per On Paper tradition, when a staff member wins the weekly challenge, I will take their request for the weekly honors. Here’s what Ryan wanted:
This week’s prediction
The Lions come out with a significant +5 advantage, including an edge in three of the four matchups. Detroit has done pretty darn well against bad defenses this year, and the Giants certainly meet the criteria. I think this will be a huge bounce-back week for the Lions offense. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if the Giants can create some offense with their wild-card quarterback and a decent running game. If I were a betting man—and I am explicitly not one, nor do I recommend it—I’d take the over. Lions 37, Giants 20.
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