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Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. Houston Texans [Total: 43.5]

Game Overview

The Bills enter this matchup as a road favorite, a position they have frequently found themselves in this season. They’ve been met with mixed results, holding a 2-2 record against the spread when laying points on the road, a mark that includes two outright losses by multiple scores and a pair of dominant victories.

With consistency being the primary issue, it remains to be seen which version of the Bills will suit up on Thursday night. The team that managed just 13 points against the Dolphins? Or the one that just boat-raced the Buccaneers?

Although the spotlight is routinely on Josh Allen, the Bills’ offensive efficiency hinges on whether they’re able to run the ball. That’ll likely be an issue against a Texans defense that allows the fewest yards per carry (3.3) in the NFL. More on that later.     

This game will mark the Texans’ first outing this season as a home underdog — a test for a winless team in betting markets when given points in three road matchups. Houston will aim for a repeat of last season’s matchup against Buffalo at NRG Stadium, which they covered as 1.5-point favorites, thanks to a game-winning field goal as time expired. 

C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol and has already been ruled out for this matchup, leaving Davis Mills to make his third consecutive start. Mills has done well to mitigate pressure by getting the ball out of his hands quickly, with his 2.59-second average time to throw ranking in the top three. That aspect of his game will prove crucial against the Bills, whose defense ranks sixth in pressure rate. 

RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills: Under 75.5 rushing yards (-115)

Cook’s importance to the Bills’ offense can’t be understated. His 968 rushing yards rank second, behind only Jonathan Taylor, and his 85.4 PFF rushing grade ranks third. Frankly, what’s more impressive is his direct effect on Buffalo’s ability to win games. In matchups in which the offense generates positive EPA per rush, the Bills are 7-0; when they don’t, they’re winless at 0-3.

Stopping Cook will be key for the Texans’ defense this week, and while many units have tried and failed, Houston is well-equipped to get the job done. The unit leads the NFL in both percentage of run plays allowing positive EPA and yards per carry allowed (3.3) on designed runs. The Texans’ defense is also tied for allowing the fewest runs of 10 or more yards (11). Houston is the only team in the NFL to not allow a rush of 25 yards or more. Without the home-run plays, it will be tough sledding for Cook, as it has been for many other backs.

That stingy run defense has shown up week after week. Houston has yet to surrender 75 rushing yards to a running back this season, notably holding five other players in the top 15 in rushing yardage under this mark.