Earlier this week, we asked Detroit Lions fans if they still believed the team was going to make the playoffs. After their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit is actually on the outside looking in, holding the eighth spot in the NFC standings, the first position out of the playoffs. As a result, it wasn’t surprising to see a lot of Lions fans pessimistic about the team’s chances to make the playoffs.
However, looking at a bunch of analytical models paints a much different picture. Per most of these odds, the Lions remain an overwhelming favorite to make the postseason, and most still have them as the most likely team to win the NFC North, despite currently ranking third in the division.
These predictive models are far from perfect, nor should they be considered gospel. They are based on several different methods and statistical analysis. For example, here’s how the New York Times explains their methods:
We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often each team makes the playoffs, gets the No. 1 seed, the No. 1 draft pick and so on. We estimate each team’s probability of winning each remaining game using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data, including team records, roster changes, weather, game location and more advanced measures like expected points added and success rate.
While these models don’t necessarily catch nuance like current team trends or how a scheme particularly matches up against another, it is a good tool to take a larger picture of the entire NFC picture and get out of our Lions bubble.
Here’s an overall look at the Lions’ playoff odds based on several predictive models.
Lions’ odds to make the playoffs:
New York Times: 83%
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 85.6%
ESPN: 71%
PlayoffStatus.com: 59%
All four models we looked at have the Lions as more likely than not to make the postseason, with the NYT and FTN Fantasy still overwhelmingly in Detroit’s favor. A reminder that all that really matters is getting into the dance, and anything can happen from there.
Odds to win NFC North
- Lions: 47%
- Packers: 37%
- Bears: 16%
- Vikings: <1%
- Lions: 50.4%
- Packers: 36.8%
- Bears: 12.5%
- Vikings: 0.3%
- Packers: 44%
- Lions: 34%
- Bears: 22%
- Vikings: <1%
- Bears: 41%
- Packers: 31%
- Lions: 26%
- Vikings: 2%
Again, PlayoffStatus.com is the big outlier here, likely leaning on current standings over team performance.
The other three models put the Lions’ divisional odds between 34 and 50.4%, ranking either first or second in the division. Detroit still holds their own destiny. Being just a game behind the Bears, they could overtake them with a win over Chicago—giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker. Just a half game behind the Packers, a win over Green Bay on Thanksgiving would overtake them, as well. So, theoretically, if the Lions win out, they’ll be guaranteed to win the division. Of course, it’s not likely to finish out that way.
Super Bowl odds
New York Times: 6% to win the Super Bowl
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 13.6% to appear in the Super Bowl, 8% to win the Super Bowl
ESPN: 10% to make the Super Bowl
PlayoffStatus.com: 5% to make the Super Bowl, 2% to win the Super Bowl
Most predictive models give the Lions around a 10% chance to make the Super Bowl and around half that to win it.
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