The Los Angeles Rams (7-2) will host the Seattle Seahawks (7-2) on Sunday afternoon with first place in the NFC West on the line. This is arguably the biggest game of the week with both teams showcasing top 5 offenses and top 5 defenses in the NFL. This year under Mike MacDonald, the Seahawks decided to rework their roster with Sam Darnold replacing Geno Smith, Cooper Kupp replacing DK Metcalf, and bolstering the defensive unit. Sean McVay, meanwhile, has transitioned from a heavy 11 personnel team to utilizing 13 personnel at a league-high rate. Who will prevail in a must-watch divisional matchup? Below are my grades and breakdowns of each team’s positional unit.
QB Breakdown: Last week I said if Matthew Stafford balled out that I would move him to the elite tier. Well, he sure did…once again. I am hoping that I don’t “eat more prediction” but Matthew Stafford has been unworldly this season. He is the best quarterback in the NFL right now. This will be another great test for him against a top 5 defense but I expect him to continue his strong performances. It may not be 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions every week. But continue to expect greatness.
Sam Darnold is actually PFF’s highest graded quarterback (93.1). The remarkable piece about Darnold has been that he has only thrown the ball 228 times this year (25 attempts per game). Meanwhile Stafford averages 34 attempts per game. The Seahawks operates at its best when they are able to stay efficient in early downs; preventing Darnold from having to drop back over and over.
RB Breakdown: The Rams have actually been splitting Kyren Williams and Blake Corum more as of late. In Week 10, Williams carried the ball 14 times and Corum stole 13 attempts. I personally have liked their shift to two backs so that they can keep them both fresh in the run game and in pass protection.
The Seahawks have the second most rushing attempts per game in the NFL (30.2 per game). However, they are ranked 17th in rushing yards per game (114.3). Seattle is determined to run the ball and Los Angeles can use that to their advantage to force long third down situations; allowing their pass rush more time to get home.
WR Breakdown: The Rams wide receivers have actually seen less volume over the last two weeks because of McVay’s decision to use 13 personnel more. But Stafford’s connection with his two primary targets continues to strengthen. Davante Adams caught 6 of 8 targets for 77 yards and one touchdown. Puka grabbed 5 receptions on 6 targets for 64 yards and one touchdown. For anyone that was worried about Davante being a bad signing, think again. His 9 touchdowns lead the NFL.
The Seahawks are operating the way the 2021-2024 Rams operated. Jaxson Smith-Njigba has paced the Seattle wide receivers with 1041 yards. The next closest receiver is Cooper Kupp with 367 yards. Seattle is clearly trying to get the ball into JSN’s hands. Expect Los Angeles to bracket JSN to force the ball elsewhere.
TE Breakdown: The Rams have gone from rarely using their tight ends in 11 personnel to using 13 personnel almost 50% of the time. Now, Stafford’s targets are being distributed to all four tight ends. In Week 10, 10 of Stafford’s 24 completions went to the tight end room.
Seattle’s tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo are second year and rookie players respectively. Despite their youth, they have seen a ton of action; receiving 35 receptions on 46 targets, 410 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns.
OL Breakdown: The Rams offensive line has become one of the NFL’s best through 10 weeks. The five starters grade as follows: Jackson (79.3), Avila (79.6), Shelton (79.1), Dotson (83.6), and Havenstein (60.5). The Rams have been winning the trenches in the run game and passing game. Stafford has been kept clean and Williams and Corum have had enough daylight to stay ahead of the chains.
Seattle’s offensive line has not allowed Darnold to be sacked often; only allowing 10 sacks all year. However, the Seahawks are not particularly strong at the left and right guard spots. The offensive line does not make huge lanes for the running backs. Furthermore, the Rams pass rush will be the offensive line’s biggest test all year.
DL Breakdown: Cooper Kupp is not the only one playing against his former team. Poona Ford has a chance at exacting revenge against his original team (2018 – 2022). The Rams have neutralized explosive runs all year thanks to Poona Ford. Braden Fiske is continuing to become more like his rookie version. And while Kobie Turner has not had the best third year in his eyes, Tyler Davis has posted a 71.0 grade as the team’s fourth interior defensive lineman.
Seattle’s best asset on defensive is their interior. Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams are game wreckers. Collectively, they have 10 of the team’s 32 sacks this year. They both play the run very well, which is why Seattle has only allowed 90.7 rushing yards per game (3rd best).
EDGE Breakdown: Byron Young has now gone two games in a row without a sack. The 49ers made sure to get the ball out quick against LA’s pass rush. We’ll see if Seattle can use the same type of game plan that New Orleans and San Francisco used. But it could cost Seattle the ability to throw the ball downfield. This will need to be a game where Verse and Young can force Darnold off of his spot; preventing their downfield attack.
Seattle’s edge includes Demarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu. Lawrence is coming off a spectacular Week 10 game where he recovered two fumbles for touchdowns.
LB Breakdown: Nate Landman has now forced four fumbles this year – I’m not sure why he’s not being credited with four. When the Rams need a play, it just seems like Landman shows up.
Ernest Jones leads the Seahawks in tackles (65) and interceptions (3). After three seasons in LA, the Rams shipped Jones to Tennessee for a Day 3 pick. Let’s just say there won’t be any love lost come Sunday.
DB Breakdown: The matchup to watch this week will be Quentin Lake on JSN. If Lake doesn’t follow him, Shula will likely use two of his defensive backs to bracket coverage the star wideout. I expect Seattle will want to get JSN matched up on Darious Williams or Emmanuel Forbes as much as possible.
One of the Seattle’s biggest advantages is their secondary. Former first round pick Devon Witherspoon has become a staple in MacDonald’s defense. MacDonald added Nick Emmanwori in the second round of this year’s draft to give himself a nickel cornerback/safety hybrid. And despite being on the trade block, Riq Woolen gives their outside a huge size advantage.
ST Breakdown: Last week, Sean McVay gave the place kicker job to Harrison Mevis and the long snapping duties to Jake McQuaide. The ST unit managed to be successful on all 6 extra point tries. I imagine we will get a test of Mevis with field goals because of Seattle’s strong defense.
Seattle’s strongest advantage is with their kicker Jason Meyers and Michael Dickson. Both are at (or near) the tops of their position groups.
Coaching Breakdown: Sean McVay has had success against Mike MacDonald’s past defenses and with McVay getting creative with his personnel packages, I think McVay has a clear edge on the second year coach. The bigger test will be if Chris Shula can slow down the explosive plays of Klint Kubiak, Seattle’s offensive coordinator.
Which matchups are you most excited to watch? Do you think the Rams can limit JSN to under 100 yards receiving? Add your comments below about who has the edge on paper between the Rams & Seahawks in Week 11.
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