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Each week, we will analyze some of the best player statistics on PrizePicks with the help of the new PFF Player Prop Tool. Betting insights, matchup data and historical hit rates are just a few of the things the tool offers.
Here are two props that stand out ahead of Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: More than 69.5 receiving yards
Jefferson is coming off back-to-back disappointing games, accounting for just 84 receiving yards over that span. The All-Pro wideout hasn’t recorded 80 yards in a game since Week 5 at Cleveland.
Jefferson has still been a target monster this season despite the dip in production. He has been targeted 64 times over his last six games, with no fewer than nine targets in any of those contests. He is coming off a game last week against Baltimore in which he was targeted a season-high 12 times, so the volume has not disappeared.
This week, the Vikings will host the Chicago Bears, which presents Jefferson with a favorable matchup. As a team, the Bears rank 25th in PFF coverage grade at 49.3. Jefferson will face Tyrique Stevenson (52.1 coverage grade) and Nahshon Wright (55.8) out wide and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (49.5) in the slot — all matchups that lean heavily in his favor.
At just 69.5 receiving yards, Jefferson’s prop stands out for a player who rarely has a line below 70. The Vikings have lost three of their last four games and will travel to Green Bay and Seattle in Weeks 11 and 12, making this a near must-win to keep their playoff hopes alive. With that in mind, this feels like a game Jefferson is poised to break out in for a desperate Minnesota offense.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: More than 78.5 rushing yards
The Packers have dropped two straight home games, and the offense has struggled, scoring just 20 total points over that span. The team has been hit hard by injuries to its pass-catchers, most notably Tucker Kraft, who ranked third among 55 tight ends in PFF receiving grade (82.9). First-round pick Matthew Golden missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury as well.
This week, Green Bay travels to New York to face the Giants in a game where they may look to re-establish the run, something they lean on when they are at their best offensively. While the Giants’ defensive line is one of the best in the NFL when rushing the passer, the defense struggles to defend the run, as shown by its 44.9 run-defense grade, which ranks 30th in the league.
Over the last two weeks, 72% of Jacobs’ rushing yards have come after first contact, and he has forced eight missed tackles on the ground. He has also carried the ball 38 times over that span, which is noteworthy considering the Packers have led for a combined five minutes and 31 seconds in those defeats.
With a favorable matchup and the Packers currently seven-point favorites, bet on Jacobs getting the ball early and often as the team looks to bounce back after a tough start to the month of November.
