Last week, my bold prediction was considered “mild” by some, and it came up six points short. The Detroit Lions offense was explosive and scored 44 points against the Washington Commanders, but couldn’t hit the big 50 like I thought they could. This week, I am shifting my focus from the offense to the defense.
The Lions’ defense is coming off an average performance, allowing 22 points from the Commanders’ offense that was without its starting quarterback and top wide receiver. This week, the challenge will be a lot tougher with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles’ offense isn’t as explosive as it was last year, but they are doing well in limiting turnovers, having four this season so far.
The Lions’ defense has created 12 turnovers this season, and in a game against the Eagles, a simple mistake by each team can be a turning point. In the Eagles’ last game against the Green Bay Packers, they won the turnover battle, which ultimately led to a victory. If Detroit can beat Philadelphia, it must give its offense extra chances to take down a difficult defense.
Bold prediction of the week: Detroit creates multiple turnovers on Eagles’ offense
There are two challenges for the Lions to achieve my prediction: the health of the defense and creating turnovers against this Eagles offense. The Lions’ defense is starting to stack up injuries, and the players dealing with those injuries are the ones who’ve generated the turnovers. Of the 12 turnovers, four came from players currently not dealing with an injury or on IR. The good news is that none of the injured players are out for long, as reinforcements are on the way.
Cornerback D.J. Reed started his clock on his return from IR, and he’s been limited in practice this week. I don’t expect him to play, though. Safety Kerby Joseph, who leads the team with three interceptions, has missed the last three games, and cornerbacks Amik Robertson and Terrion Arnold each have one interception but are dealing with injuries that could knock them out this week.
The Lions’ defense needs all the help it can get in this matchup. The last time the secondary was banged up and missing starters, the “legion of whom” held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield to 226 yards, cornerback Arthur Maulet came away with an interception, and EDGE Aidan Hutchinson recovered a fumble. The offense for Detroit was explosive on the ground by running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who got 218 yards of total offense and two touchdowns, but it was the defense that came up big in the end.
The Eagles’ roster is a level up from the Buccaneers. Last year, they seemed unstoppable as running back Saquon Barkley ran for 2,005 yards, the eighth most ever by a running back, and quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for 2,903 yards with a 1,000-yard receiver in A.J. Brown and a great number two option in DeVonta Smith, who had 833 yards.
This year, while the team isn’t as explosive in general, the thing they are doing the best at is holding onto the football. With only four turnovers this season, the fewest in the NFL, three of them have come by Hurts. Hurts has not been damaging opponents through the air this season, only throwing for 1,860 yards (18th) and 16 touchdowns (t-11th). The running game has also taken a step back from years before, as Hurts has more rushing touchdowns than Barkley (5 and tied for 11th most in the league). Barkley went from averaging 5.8 yards per carry last year and scoring 13 times on the ground to getting 3.9 yards per carry and scoring only four times this season.
While the Eagles offense isn’t as explosive as it has been scoring-wise, what’s keeping them in games is the defense and the offense not giving the opponents extra opportunities with the football. Those four turnovers the Eagles have had this season have only occurred in three games, with their only multiple turnover game coming in their 34-17 loss to the New York Giants.
The Eagles’ offensive line is banged up, as center Cam Jurgens has missed back-to-back games, with left guard Landon Dickerson and right tackle Lane Johnson now dealing with injuries, appearing on the injury report this week. If the offensive line isn’t up to par, the Lions’ defensive line might get home and hit Hurts to force a fumble, or they could pressure him to make a bad decision and throw it into double coverage or to a Lions defender.
With Philly not playing like themselves on offense and the offensive line not at full strength, this could be the week they make some key mistakes. The Lions’ defense isn’t afraid of the bright lights, and the depth players step up when called upon. Philly doesn’t seem to be on the same page, despite being 7-2, and I think the Lions could catch them on an off night and come away with multiple turnovers that could help them walk out with a win on Sunday night.
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