The 2-8 New York Giants host the 5-3-1 Green Bay Packers on Sunday. It’s Mike Kafka’s debut as head coach against a Packers team reeling from a 10-7 sludge-fest loss on Monday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers. The Giants are 7-point underdogs, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Packers have dropped two consecutive games; they’re Week 9 loss home loss against Carolina (16-13) came after a 35-25 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Green Bay has scored 20 points in the last two games, while surrendering just 26-points on defense.
Green Bay has turned the football over four times in the last two games; three of those turnovers were fumbles. Quarterback Jordan Love only has three interceptions on the season to go along with 13 touchdowns and 2,247 passing yards. Love has completed 68.9% of his passes, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.2 yards. His big-time throw rate sits at 5.0%, the seventh highest in the NFL among quarterbacks who have played at least half of their team’s offensive drop backs, while his turnover-worthy play rate is 2.9%
Packers’ statistics
The Packers rank 15th in scoring throughout the NFL, with an average of 23.7 points per game. The average 349.3 yards per game, which ranks 11th in the NFL. The Packers are 9th in passing yards per game (237.4), and they average 111.9 rushing yards per game (20th in NFL).
Matt Lafleur’s offense ranks 11th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage — they scored a touchdown on 63.9% of their red zone trips. They’re the best in third-down efficiency, though, with an 47.79% conversion rate. Jordan Love has thrown for an NFL-high 747 yards on third and fourth downs, with an average time to throw for three-seconds on later downs.
NFL Insights highlighted an interesting statistic about Lafleur’s play-calling; 52.7% of Josh Jacobs’ rush attempts this season have come with his quarterback under center, up from 35.5% last season. The Packers were under-center on just 35% of snaps this season.
Since the start of 2024, Jacobs has averaged 4.8 yards per attempt, generated a 45.9% success rate (9th/46 RBs with 50 such carries), and forced an NFL-high 55 missed tackles on runs from shotgun formations, compared to 3.5 yards per attempt, a 37.1% success rate (41st of 57 qualifiers) and 45 missed tackles forced (17th most) from under center formations.
Josh Jacobs has carried the ball 38 times in the red zone this season, the second-most in the NFL, gaining 118 yards and scoring a league-leading 10 touchdowns. Although, outside the red zone, Jacobs averages a putrid 0.8-yards before contact, meaning he is often hit behind or at the line of scrimmage. Still, he averages 2.99 yards after contact with 31 missed tackles forced — the latter stat ranks him eighth in the NFL, tied with Javonte Williams of the Dallas Cowboys.
The Packers’ leading receivers are all injured. Romeo Doubs hurt his chest in Week 10 and reports have suggested that he may play in Week 11. Doubs has 35 catches for 446 yards with four touchdowns. Kraft is still ahead of Doubs except receptions.
The matchup
Injuries have plagued the Packers. Star tight end, Tucker Kraft, tore his ACL two weeks ago. Green Bay lessened their 12 personnel approach substationally, and rolled 12 personnel at just a 9% rate in Week 10 against the Eagles. They averaged a 34% 12 personnel rate through the first nine weeks of the season. Green Bay mostly used 11 personnel against the Eagles, but their wide receiver room is rife with injuries.
The loss of Kraft has altered the offense. Hecomprised of 30.7% of the Packers’ total yards after catch. Green Bay has the fourth-most YAC in the league with 1,150-yards, and 353 of those yards were through their young tight end. Doubs (109 yards) and Jacobs (242) both do well creating YAC.
NFL Insights states that Love has completed 83.4% of his passes below 10 air yards this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL.Love leads the league with a 15.3% explosive play percentage on these underneath attempts, nearly double his 2024 rate (8.9%).
While Love has found success underneath, he has also attempted a deep pass of 20+ air yards on 11.6% of his attempts, which ranks eighth-highest in the NFL. Doubs is responsible for 39.6% of the Packers’ air yards. Love has developed a penchant to attack the seams in 2025; he set a career high 51.6% seam-target rate, according to NFL Insights. Love has completed 105 of his 129 attempts (81.4%, fourth-highest) for an average of 9.2 yards per attempt (third-most), eight touchdowns, and a pair interceptions.
Jayden Reed remains out and Romeo Doubs was hurt at the end of the Week 10 matchup, but might play against the Giants. Rookie Matt Golden did not dress in Week 10, but could return in Week 11. The Packers have Dontayvion Wicks, Malik Heath, Bo Melton, and Christian Watson — who returned to the lineup two weeks ago from a torn ACL. Athletic rookie, Savion Williams, is used often on jet-sweeps and trick type of plays and could see more snaps if Golden and Doubs miss the game.
Love has looked uncomfortable for two consecutive weeks and the Packers have sputtered; the injuries to the wide receivers, coupled with frigid Green Bay temperatures last week, as well as good Philadelphia defense, led to several drops and no receiver exceeding 50-yards on the matchup.
The Packers’ offense is in a two-game funk and they’re facing a Giants’ defense that’s been lingering in a similar funk all season. New York rank middle of the field closed 78% of the time in Week 10 against Caleb Williams. The Giants were predominantly in BASE against the 49ers in the previous week, which was dictated by the offensive personnel. Still, given the Packers wide receiver situation, a more middle-of-the-field-closed look in Week 11 makes sense depending on the situation — but this may not be favorable for the Giants.
NFL Insights states that Love has not thrown any of his 13 touchdowns against split-safety coverages, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt when facing such shells compared to 8.6 otherwise.
The Packers are 3-0 in games in which they have faced split-safety on fewer than 25% of dropbacks, compared to 2-2-1 when facing it over 35% of the time. While the Eagles have used split-safety at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL (38.7%), they have allowed the 8th-lowest success rate (39.8%) out of such shells, compared to a 45.3% success rate out of single-high coverage shells.
Shane Bowen will be tasked to either employ six or seven-man spacing to mitigate Love, or a heavier front with eight-man spacing to restrict Jacobs and the rushing attack against the Giants’ shaky run defense.
The Giants’ defense has shown vulnerabilities over the middle of the field all season, especially off play-action. Expect heavy under center usage with a strong in-breaking play action passing attack from the Packers. Trick plays to Williams will be up Lafleur’s sleeve as well.
Love hasn’t looked great the last two games. The Eagles ran split-safety looks on just 16% of defensive snaps and Love still struggled to attack the middle-of-the-field closed defenses. The Giants are not the Eagles, so Bowen must look to diversify his coverages on the backend and play game-flow when it comes to defensive structure from a split-safety stand point.
When New York does play middle-of-the-field-closed, the Packers will likely rely on timing based routes breaking outward under a clear-out to stretch the curl/flat when it’s Cover-3. Expect tight traffic and rub-routes against Cover-1.
I hope to see more Abdul Carter on the edge, but the lack of healthy linebacker play may render him more to an off-ball role. The Packers offensive line struggled in Week 10. New York should look to employ stunts on the left side to take advantage of Rasheed Walker, who has been solid this season, but will be tested against Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Carter.
Final thoughts
I expect the Giants to be exciting with or without Jaxson Dart, now that Jameis Winston was promoted to the second quarterback. I am interested to see if there’s tendency differences on offense now that Daboll is no longer around, even though Kafka called plays previously. The Giants will play with fire and come out strong, but I’m ultimately picking the Packers in a close, low-scoring game.
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