The New York Giants will return home to host the Green Bay Packers in Week 11.
The Giants return to the Meadowlands a different team than the one that left for Chicago in Week 10. Head Coach Brian Daboll has been fired, while offensive coordinator Mike Kafka has been named interim head coach in his place. Complicating matters even further, the Giants’ offense took it’s biggest hit yet when Jaxson Dart suffered a concussion on Sunday.
The Giants have fallen to a 2-8 record for the third consecutive season, and are riding a 4-game losing streak entering this week. That, along with Dart’s injury, likely explains Daboll’s dismissal. The Packers, meanwhile, have fallen on hard times as well. They’ve slipped to 5-3-1 on the season after a two-game losing streak that involves a 16-13 loss to the lowly Carolina Panthers.
But while the Packers have lost, their defense has done more than enough to win. They allowed 16 points to the Panthers and just 10 points to the Philadelphia Eagles. So what can the Giants’ offense expect from the Packers’ defense on Sunday afternoon?
The Packers’ defense
The Packers run an odd-front defense, typically lining up with a three down linemen. While they technically run a 3-4 front, it’s effectively a 5-2 front as their outside linebackers line up on the line of scrimmage, outside the offensive tackles. The Packers typically run a one-gap defense, either penetrating into the backfield or using their 3-man line to force runs to the perimeter.
The Packers have versatile edge defenders, and make use of them in a variety of ways in their front. For instance, Rashan Gary is listed as a defensive end, but is often asked to play from a 2-point stance as an outside linebacker. New addition Micah Parsons, meanwhile, is listed as an “OLB” on their depth chart, but is also used as a defensive end out of a 3-point stance. The fluidity of the Packers’ front is intended to create confusion and force offenses to keep track of multiple players as well as create mismatches or one-on-one match-ups. Micah Parsons is the greatest threat in their defensive front, and teams need to go make a point of tracking him on every play. However, they can’t do so at the expense of neglecting Gary or DL Devonte Wyatt.
In fact, Gary leads the Packers with 7.5 sacks to Parsons’ 6.5 sacks — though Parsons does have one more QB hit than Gary. The Giants also need to be aware of LB Quay Walker, who is used as an off-ball linebacker, a pass rusher, and as a run defender.
The Packers typically play zone coverage, calling some form of zone roughly 68 percent of the time. Interestingly, they call Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3 at pretty similar rates. They call Cover-1 on 23.8 percent of plays, Cover-2 on 23.5 percent of plays, and Cover 3 on 29.9 percent of plays. Of their three most frequent alignments, Cover 3 is by far their most effective, with 0.169 defensive EPA ( or -0.169 offensive EPA), which is 10th in the NFL in that alignment. Their Cover-1 and Cover-2 looks, however, aren’t nearly as successful with -0.095 and -0.133 defensive EPAs, respectively.
Jeff Hafley’s defense tends to use post-snap coverage rotations, often presenting quarters looks, only to rotate into one of their three primary coverages. The Giants have used their hard counts to good success to help expose defenses’ intentions, however that might not work as well without Jaxson Dart’s legs as a threat.
The good news is that both Cover 2 and Cover 3 can be attacked with the Giants’ tight ends and running backs in the passing game. Theo Johnson had one of his best games as a professional last week, and the Giants should look to get him and Daniel Bellinger involved early.
The Packers spend a significant amount of time in their nickel packages, essentially turning their 3-4 defense into a 5-1-5 defense. The Giant can, and probably should, use two TE or two RB packages (12 and 21-personnel, respectively) to help force the Packers into base packages and reduce their overall team speed.
The Giants should also have a plan to play methodically and stay out of long downs and distances. The Packers don’t blitz often and send pressure on just 22.3 percent of plays, 30th in the NFL. Likewise, they only send 6 or more defenders on 4.0 percent of plays, 29th in the NFL. They most commonly send pressure on 3rd and medium, blitzing on 44.1 percent of those plays. Otherwise, the Packers blitz on 33.3 percent of 2nd and short, as well as 3rd and long, plays.
All told, the Packers’ pass rush is roughly equal to that of the Giants. The two teams have similar pass rush productivity, pressure rates, and sack rates, and while the Packers have 1 more sack (23 to 22) and more QB hits (56 to 46), the Giants have more total pressures (233 to 221).
Famous Jameis at QB
As of this writing, Jaxson Dart is in the concussion protocol, and it isn’t clear that he’ll get the start even if he clears the protocol. Dart’s development and long-term well-being is absolutely of paramount importance for the Giants, and they could have him sit for a week even if he clears the protocol by Sunday.
Following the question of Dart’s health was the question of who would start in his place. Mike Kafka answered that on Wednesday morning, naming Jameis Winston the No.2 quarterback behind Dart.
Russell Wilson has been the Giants’ backup since the decision was made to start Dart against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, Wilson hasn’t looked like an NFL starter since throwing that fateful interception against the Dallas Cowboys. He’s been booed by the Giants’ home crowd, and looked particularly uncomfortable in the fourth quarter against the Bears. Wilson was indecisive and almost skittish as a passer, repeatedly double-clutching and taking unnecessary hitches in the backfield.
However, even a diminished Wilson is a much safer quarterback than Winston. Winston is nothing if not decisive, even if that means decisively throwing the ball to the guys wearing the wrong color jerseys.
One of the hallmarks of the end of Brian Daboll’s tenure has been a tendency to try to keep games “respectable” and avoid decisions with a higher risk vs. reward ratio. In other words, it looked as though Daboll was playing it safe to try to keep his job.
Kafka, is not only trying to lead the Giants to an underdog win against the Packers, but is interviewing for a job — whether it’s with the Giants or another team in 2026.
His calculus is different from Daboll’s, who was trying to avoid being fired, and that could lead to some significantly different decisions under his watch.
It already seems to be leading to an increased appetite for risk and more aggressive decision making. To start, it’s led to the elevation of Winston to QB2, both for more decisive decision making (for better or worse) and to keep the threat of a deep pass in the back of the Packers’ minds.
It’s also notable that, in addition to there being no tape of the Kafka-led Giants, nobody has tape of Winston in the Giants’ offense. There’s tape of Wilson and Dart, but none of Winston, who has been the Giants’ emergency quarterback through the first 10 games.
The potential advantage of adding another element of uncertainty to the Packers’ defensive preparation shouldn’t be overlooked.
Another aspect to consider is that Dart provided an emotional spark to the team, both on offense and defense. His play, and swagger, galvanized the Giants in a way that Wilson’s demeanor simply didn’t. Winston is charismatic with an infectious enthusiam that could help lift the team after four straight losses and a week of uncertainty.
Will the offense change?
Speaking of offensive uncertainty, both we and the Packers have to ask themsevles what will change with Mike Kafka having full control of the Giants’ offense.
The Giants made a couple big schematic changes against the Bears. Their (dramatically) increased use of under-center alignments was a notable departure in Week 10. Dart has spent very little time under center as a young quarterback, rarely doing it in college or the NFL before Week 10. That changed against the Bears, as he took more snaps under center than in his previous five games combined.
But while Dart was remarkably effective from under center, the Giants still struggled to run the ball.
That prompted another change at halftime, as the Giants began to feature the Pistol formation. I’ve mentioned the Pistol a couple times since Sunday and intended to do a full film study on the Giants’ use of the formation. The short version is that the Pistol is something of a hybrid between the Shotgun and I-Formation, blending the advantages of each.
By putting the running back behind the quarterback, the defense can’t use the back’s depth to key on run or pass, as they can in the shotgun. In the shotgun, a pass protecting running back will be roughly even with the quarterback, while a run play will likely have them just behind the quarterback. Likewise, putting the running back behind the quarterback makes the direction of the play harder to discern before the snap.
On the flip side, lining the quarterback up in the backfield gives him a better view of the defense before, and at, the snap. It also gives him a similar separation from the pass rush as the Shotgun. Those two advantages are why teams often use the Shotgun in 3rd down passing situations. For a young quarterback like Dart, it’s also more familiar and doesn’t require the same kind of precisely timed footwork to time his throw with receivers’ routes.
It’s also a very versatile formation that can take a wide variety of shapes to create different looks and potential mismataches.
The decision to incorporate the Pistol into the Giants offense — or perhaps to emphasize the elements of their playbook with the Pistol — is reminiscent of the decision to switch from an RPO-based offense to a West Coast Quick Game offense in overtime against the Washington Commanders in 2022. That game ended in a draw, but it was also one of the clearest indications of flexibility in coaching. It’s a flexibility that was lacking from the Giants’ offense as Brian Daboll took a bigger role in the play-calling in 2023 and 2024.
It paid immediate dividends for the Giants, as their running game suddenly found traction.
The Pistol was so immediately successful that we should expect to see it in the Giants’ game plan against the Packers. Even without Dart in the lineup, giving defenses something else to account for is too much of an advantage to ignore.
But what else? Could we see some of the players who’ve been banished to the doghouse get a role under Kafka?
Jalin Hyatt has had almost no role in the Giants’ offense this year, however he made several impressive catches when forced into action by injury. We could see more of Hyatt with Winston starting, as the two did have an impressive connection in the preseason. Having another speedster and deep threat besides Darius Slayton could be a boon both for Wan’Dale Robinson (who is currently the best slot receiver in the NFL), as well as the Giants’ tight ends and running backs.
Mike Kafka learned under Andy Reid as both a player and a coach. Reid has consistently tried to incorporate deep threats into his offense to stretch defenses and create room underneath. Kafka was teammates with DeSean Jackson and was the QB coach and Passing Game Coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill were terrorizing the NFL.
Finally, there’s the issue of the run game in general. We almost certainly won’t see the quarterback heavily involved in the run game with Jaxson Dart in the concussion protocol. And we’ll likely see the role reduced once he returns as well.
It’s undeniably true that Daboll has always used quarterbacks as his “power back”, dating back to his time as the Buffalo Bills’ offensive coordinator. A running quarterback is a potent weapon that forces the defense to play true 11-on-11 football and often gives the offense a numbers advantage. However, Kafka could decide that it’s advantageous to show ownership that he’s invested in the the future of the franchise — that is, the future of Jaxson Dart — over immediate returns.
Being more judicious with quarterback power runs would be a marked change for the Giants’ offense, as well as show the Giants that he isn’t willing to risk Dart’s health for his own benefit.
Again, that’s unlikely to manifest against the Packers. Assuming Dart doesn’t clear the concussion protocol, Winston has never been a running quarterback and isn’t likely to scare defenses with his legs. That aspect of the offense will almost certainly be absent on Sunday.
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