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Before this NFL season started, sportsbooks gave the Los Angeles Rams a roughly 4 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, tied for 10th place on the betting board with their L.A. rivals, the Chargers.
Now they’re in second behind only the perennial odds darlings, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Rams have ridden a 7-2 record to +700 odds, which implies an over 12 percent chance of winning it all. The Chiefs are now at +550, which is a little over 15 percent. If Los Angeles wins their blockbuster NFC West matchup against the equally hot Seattle Seahawks this week, expect those odds to get even shorter.
Of course, week-to-week changes don’t necessarily make a huge difference in the odds, as the Chiefs’ stranglehold on the top spot evidences after their loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 10 before their bye, putting them at a bizarre 5-4, good for eighth in the AFC, tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars (who, incidentally, beat them in Week 5).
According to multiple reports, the Giants fired head coach Brian Daboll on Monday, following the team’s 2-8 start and a recent four-game losing streak. New York has promoted Kafka to interim head coach, adding another former Andy Reid assistant to the ranks of head coaches.
”Yes, (the Chiefs are) a great team. It was an awesome experience. But this opportunity was something that was special to me and my family. It wasn’t just something I took on a whim. I wasn’t just going to go to any team. It had to be built the right way with the people, Kafka said during his first press conference in front of New York media in 2022, “I have a lot of great relationships and great people in the Chiefs organization, and I respect them and have a lot of respect for the coaching staff and the guys there.”
The problem with leading the league in sacks when you’re about to face the Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes almost seems to enjoy getting sacked. Somehow, he plays even better when he gets sacked a few times. Since the start of the 2024 season, Mahomes is 8-1 when he gets sacked three or more times in a game. When he’s facing pressure, that gives him a chance to make something out of nothing on a broken play and as we all know at this point, no one is better at making something out of nothing. There’s a reason his nickname is Homesdini. OK, I’ll admit it, I’m the only one who calls him that.
There is a reason the Chiefs have won nine straight division titles and it’s because they always seem to win games like this. This is the fourth time in five years that the Chiefs have entered Week 11 with at least two losses and every time that happens, we start to write them off, and every time we do that, they respond by going on a run that ends up with them in the Super Bowl.
If the Broncos win, I promise to start trusting them, but I won’t be picking against the Chiefs in a must-win divisional showdown until someone proves they can actually beat them.
PICK: Chiefs 27-23 over Broncos | Chiefs -3.5
Makes magic and directs traffic like: Steve Young
The easy comp here is one that followed Mahomes out of college — Brett Favre. The one that makes more sense involves another Hall-of-Fame quarterback in that era who could make plays with his legs and his arm — Young. Mahomes has become a legend because of moments that drop jaws and leave fans scratching their heads in amazement. What’s often underrated about his game is the cool efficiency that made Young so dangerous. Yes, Mahomes could surely have sliced and diced defenses in the ‘90s, but his penchant for managing the game (he ranks third in NFL history with a 101.8 career passer rating) would’ve been just as potent as his superpowered heroics.
Of course, it also helps that the man has three Super Bowl victories under his belt. If you want somebody who can hang with the heavyweights of the day — a group that includes Favre, Young, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Warren Moon — you had better have a guy who knows how to win. That is what separates Mahomes from Buffalo’s Josh Allen, while his durability makes him an easy pick over Joe Burrow. If you’re wondering why Lamar Jackson didn’t make the grade, then think about that decade. Sadly, it is highly unlikely anyone would’ve been open-minded or creative enough to build an offense around his skillset as a QB. Mahomes is the guy, hands down.
Round 1 – Pick 17
Avieon Terrell CBClemson • Jr • 5’11” / 180 lbs
Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams are slated to hit free agency after the season. Watson likely returns, but the Chiefs haven’t historically overvalued the position — and a Trent McDuffie extension should be a priority. Aveion Terrell steps in to fill the potential void.
15. Jaylen Watson, CB
Current team: Kansas City Chiefs
2025 salary: $3.4 million
Age entering 2026 season: 27What he brings: Watson isn’t a high-end playmaker, but he has the length to challenge in press, along with the route awareness to play top-down on the ball in zone schemes. Watson has two career interceptions and 22 pass breakups. — Bowen
What we’re hearing: Watson isn’t a marquee name but is one that generated buzz when discussing free agents with teams. “He’ll have a nice market,” an AFC executive said. “He could surprise some people.” The Chiefs’ extension candidates include star corner Trent McDuffie, which could force Watson to go elsewhere during the offseason. — Fowler
The Kansas City Chiefs’ defense has grown throughout the season, with moments of elite play from their stars, veterans, and rookies. A player they invested in long-term during the offseason is proving, week in and week out, the high value of that decision on the defensive line.
George Karlaftis has been a consistent threat on the defensive line alongside All-Pro Chris Jones. He’s collected 32 combined tackles and five sacks through nine games this season. He has found various ways to apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks and to affect opponents’ offensive game plans.
Last offseason, Karlaftis agreed to a four-year contract extension with the Chiefs, worth up to $93 million. He’s contributed mightily to Kansas City being ranked third in total defense through nine weeks.
Around the NFL
On the night Dallas Cowboys defensive end Marshawn Kneeland died, the team’s director of security, Cable Johnson, called law enforcement to ask for a welfare check on Kneeland and to tell police Kneeland had sent a text saying he didn’t want to go to jail.
“He sent out some group texts that are concerning — probably mental health — but the group texts seemed to be saying goodbye — made some statement about not able to go to prison or to jail,” Johnson told Plano police dispatch, according to audio obtained by ESPN through a public records request.
Kneeland died from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound last week. Police found his body in the early morning last Thursday after he had evaded officers during a pursuit and fled on foot. Police have not said what prompted the pursuit.
In case you missed it on Arrowhead Pride
If the season ended today, the Kansas City Chiefs wouldn’t make the playoffs — and the Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots would have the top three seeds.
How is this possible? Am I the only one who can’t believe this?
Before the season began, oddsmakers like FanDuel Sportsbook set the Colts’ win total at 7.5. The Patriots were at 8.5. The Broncos were the “leading contender” of the bunch at 9.5. That was tied with the Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers for the AFC’s seventh-highest win total.
Football can be unpredictable, of course. But this is flat-out shocking. Is it here to stay?
Call me old school, but I’m hard-pressed to believe a team led by a quarterback like Daniel Jones, Bo Nix or Drake Maye will suddenly emerge as the AFC’s team to beat over teams led by Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
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