• Dak Prescott set for a big game on Monday night: The Raiders defense runs one of the highest rates of Cover 3 in the league, using the coverage on 46% of their defensive snaps. Since 2021, Prescott has thrown a seam route 89 times, 23 more than the next-closest quarterback, Baker Mayfield. On those attempts, Prescott has graded out as the best passer with a 97.9 PFF pass grade.

• Drake Maye generating legitimate MVP buzz: Drake Maye has been completing deep passes at one of the highest rates we have seen over the past 10 seasons. On throws 20-plus yards downfield, Maye is completing 61.8% of his passes, the third-highest mark since the 2016 season, trailing only Brock Purdy in 2023 (63.8%) and Sam Darnold this season (72.4%).

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NFL Week 11 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 11 contest.

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NYJ@NE | WAS@MIA | CAR@ATL | TB@BUF | LAC@JAX | CHI@MIN | GB@NYG | CIN@PIT | HOU@TEN | SF@ARI | SEA@LAR | BAL@CLE | KC@DEN | DET@PHI | DAL@LV

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

The Jets have been one of the best rushing offenses when running between the tackles. This season, their 5.6 yards per attempt between the tackles ranks first among team offenses, while their 16.7% explosive (10-plus yard) rush rate is 3.1 points higher than the next closest team. Breece Hall has led the charge inside, averaging 5.6 yards per carry on attempts between the tackles, which ranks third-highest among all rushers.

Drake Maye has been completing deep passes at one of the highest rates we have seen over the past 10 seasons. On throws 20-plus yards downfield, Maye is completing 61.8% of his passes, the third-highest mark since the 2016 season, trailing only Brock Purdy in 2023 (63.8%) and Sam Darnold this season (72.4%).

Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins

Since Week 7, the Dolphins defense has allowed -0.280 expected points added per rush, the best mark in the NFL in that span. Jordyn Brooks has been a big reason for Miami’s success against the run over the past couple of games. His 90.7 run-defense grade since Week 7 ranks fourth among all defenders, and his 12 stops in run defense are tied for the second most.

Bobby Wagner continues to grade well in run defense for the Commanders this season. Among all defenders, his 89.9 run-defense grade ranks seventh-best, and among linebackers, he grades out fourth overall. Part of the reason he grades so well is his reliability as a tackler. Among linebackers with 30-plus tackles this season, Wagner’s 2% missed-tackle rate is the lowest.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

In this matchup, expect to see plenty of pistol formations, as the Falcons use the alignment on a league-high 49% of their offensive plays while the Panthers rank fourth at 8%. Atlanta is far more run-heavy from pistol, calling run plays 66% of the time, whereas Carolina maintains a more balanced approach at 53% run and 47% pass.

The Falcons have been especially effective running the ball from pistol looks, averaging 4.7 yards per carry on designed runs — a stark contrast to their league-worst 3.1 yards per attempt from shotgun or under-center formations.

For Carolina, the ground game has been most efficient under center, where the Panthers average 4.5 yards per carry, the fifth-best mark in the NFL. Rico Dowdle has been particularly strong in these situations, averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 3.9 yards after contact, the fourth-highest after-contact figure among running backs this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills

When Baker Mayfield gets extra time to operate, expect him to look Emeka Egbuka’s way. On dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds, Egbuka ranks top-five among all pass-catchers with 426 receiving yards and five touchdowns, including 14 explosive plays. He is averaging an astonishing 28.4 yards per catch on those plays. This is especially important against a Bills defense that ranks seventh-best in explosive pass rate allowed (8.4%) on throws in 2.5 seconds or less compared to 31st (20.5%) on longer attempts.

In the Bills’ upset loss to the Dolphins last week, Josh Allen was repeatedly made uncomfortable against the blitz. On 17 dropbacks against the blitz (the second most for Allen this season), he completed nine of his 15 passes for 92 yards, no touchdowns and one interception, earning a 34.3 passing grade. His grade against the blitz was his lowest in a single game since Week 2 of 2021. Next up for Allen is a Buccaneers defense that ranks fifth in blitz rate at 42% and second in forced turnovers off the blitz, with nine.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Steelers had a hard time keeping up with Ladd McConkey as he came across the field last week, with the talented pass-catcher recording a season-best four catches for 107 yards and one touchdown on in-breaking routes. On the season, McConkey has 365 receiving yards on in-breakers, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Jaguars should be a tougher test for McConkey, as their defenders have been in good position to close on in-breaking routes, ranking top-four with a 35% open-target rate allowed and a 58% catch rate allowed.

Justin Herbert is the only current starter who has faced more pressures per game (17) than Trevor Lawrence (15) this season, and the pressure finally got to Lawrence in Week 10 with a season-worst 26.3 passing grade while tying a career high with four turnover-worthy plays. Sacks have also become an issue for Lawrence, as he leads the league with 20 taken since Week 6 after taking only six over the first five weeks. Chargers pass-rushers have done a good job capitalizing on their opportunities, ranking tied for fourth with a 23% pressure-to-sack rate.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Caleb Williams has been leaps and bounds better at avoiding sacks under pressure this season. When under pressure, he has been sacked 12.1% of the time, the third-lowest rate among 32 quarterbacks. Last season, that number was all the way up at 28.2%, the second-highest mark in the league.

Caleb will have to continue his elite sack avoidance against a Vikings pass rush that has been highly effective at getting to the quarterback. This season, Minnesota ranks first in pressure rate (44.4%), quick-pressure rate (32.2%) and average time to pressure (2.35 seconds). In the season opener, the Vikings pressured Caleb on 20 dropbacks — his most in a game this season — but were only able to get him on the ground twice.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

The Packers’ defense has made a dramatic leap in 2025, emerging as one of the NFL’s most disciplined and explosive-limiting units heading into Week 11. After allowing an explosive pass on 13.7% of opponent dropbacks last season — which ranked 14th — Green Bay has tightened things considerably, boasting a league-best 9.5% rate this year.

Their improvement extends to run defense, as well. The Packers have cut down on big rushing gains, surrendering explosive runs (10-plus yards) on only 7.5% of opponent carries, the third-lowest mark in the NFL. That’s a major step forward from 2024, when they allowed an 11.9% explosive run rate (13th).

With the Brian Daboll era in New York coming to a close, one defining trait of his tenure was the Giants’ conservative downfield passing approach. From the start of the 2022 season through Week 10 of 2025, New York attempted deep passes (20-plus yards downfield) on just 9.7% of its throws, ranking 29th in the league during that span.

However, a potential shift in offensive philosophy has emerged under rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. Since being named the starter in Week 4, Dart has injected life into the Giants’ vertical passing game. He has already attempted 34 deep passes — tied for the second most in the league over that stretch — and 16% of the Giants’ total pass attempts have gone deep, also the second-highest rate among all teams.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

In the Week 7 matchup between the Bengals and Steelers, Ja’Marr Chase put together one of his most productive outings of the season, torching Pittsburgh’s defense for 161 receiving yards, with 86 of those coming after the catch. Chase’s ability to create explosive gains once the ball is in his hands has been a defining element of his game this year. His 410 yards after the catch rank third-most in the NFL, underscoring his elite open-field skill set.

This week, Chase will once again have an opportunity to exploit a Pittsburgh defense that struggles to limit yards after the catch. The Steelers have surrendered 1,271 YAC — third-most in the league — and allow an average of 5.4 yards after the catch per completion, the eighth-highest mark in the NFL. Given Cincinnati’s emphasis on quick passing and Chase’s explosiveness in space, expect the Bengals to test Pittsburgh’s tackling and pursuit angles early and often.

Nick Herbig has emerged as a key contributor for the Steelers’ pass rush in 2025. His 31 total pressures this season rank second on the team, already surpassing the 27 he recorded in all of 2024. Herbig has shown a particular knack for disrupting divisional opponents, as 10 of his career pressures have come against the Bengals, tied with the Browns for the most he has logged versus any single team.

As Pittsburgh prepares for another AFC North clash, Herbig’s consistent impact off the edge could again play a pivotal role in generating pressure and containing Cincinnati’s passing game.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Since Week 5, the Texans’ pass protection has quietly transformed into one of the league’s most reliable units. Over that stretch, Houston has allowed just a 23% pressure rate, the fifth-lowest in the NFL. They have surrendered only three sacks, all of which came in their Week 9 matchup against Denver’s aggressive front.

This marks a dramatic improvement from the first month of the season, when the Texans’ offensive line struggled. Before Week 5, Houston allowed nine sacks (tied for third-most in the league) and a 38% pressure rate, the eighth-highest in the NFL.

The Titans defense went into its Week 10 bye riding the momentum of one of its strongest pass-rush performances of the season. In their Week 9 win over the Chargers, Tennessee produced a season-high 39% pressure rate, consistently collapsing the pocket throughout the game. Even more impressive was the unit’s ability to generate quick pressure, posting a 31% rate within 2.5 seconds, a mark that helped disrupt Los Angeles’ timing and rhythm.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Christian McCaffrey has been a nightmare for defenses in the open field this season. He leads all NFL pass catchers with 19 missed tackles forced after the catch, showcasing his elite elusiveness and contact balance. McCaffrey also tops the league in yards after the catch (532), and an impressive 220 of those yards have come after contact, the highest total of any player this year. His combination of burst, strength and vision continues to make him one of the most dangerous playmakers in football once the ball is in his hands.

With Jacoby Brissett taking over as the Cardinals’ starting quarterback, Trey McBride has become a central piece of the passing game. Since Week 6, McBride has drawn 44 targets, the most of any tight end and second only to Ja’Marr Chase (62) across all players during that span. His usage rate has also climbed noticeably. After being targeted on 21% of his routes in Weeks 1-5, that number has jumped to 27% since Brissett became the starter.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

In this NFC West showdown, expect play action to play a defining role on both sides of the ball, as the Rams and Seahawks are among the league’s most play-action-heavy offenses in 2025. The Rams lead the NFL with a 35% play-action rate, while the Seahawks rank fifth at 30%, highlighting the central role the concept plays in each team’s offensive identity.

Both units have been highly efficient when using play action. Seattle leads the league in production, averaging 12.9 yards per play, while Los Angeles ranks sixth with 8.1 yards per play. Each offense also uses play action to generate chunk plays — the Seahawks’ 30% explosive pass-play rate ranks second in the NFL and the Rams’ 23% rate ranks fifth.

The matchup’s key question centers on which defense can better contain play-action success. Statistically, Seattle holds the edge, allowing only 4.7 yards per play when defending play action, one of the stingiest marks in the league and second overall. The Rams, by contrast, surrender 7.3 yards per play, ranking 20th. Similarly, Seattle’s defense limits explosive plays at a 12% rate (fourth-lowest), while Los Angeles’ 20% explosive-rate allowed ranks 23rd. How each unit handles these deceptive looks could determine the outcome of this divisional clash.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

In the Ravens’ comfortable 41-17 victory over the Browns in Week 2, Lamar Jackson picked apart Cleveland’s pass defense outside the numbers, completing 11 of 15 passes for 150 yards and each of his four passing touchdowns. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 34 touchdown passes outside the numbers while throwing only two interceptions. After giving up the four touchdowns outside the numbers in Week 2, Cleveland has allowed just five since then, ranking top-10.

The Browns could be in danger of becoming a get-right game for a struggling pass rush in back-to-back weeks. Entering Week 10, the Jets ranked 31st with a 26% pressure rate and 1.5 sacks per game but generated 19 pressures and six sacks against the Browns — both season highs. Up next is the Ravens, who currently rank bottom five with a 29% pressure rate and 1.6 sacks per game. The Browns sit last in the NFL with a 35.4 team pass-block grade, which would be the lowest in the PFF era if it holds for the rest of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Pressure played a big role in the Bills handing the Chiefs their fourth loss heading into the bye last week. Patrick Mahomes faced pressure on a season-high 18 dropbacks, on which he completed just three of 15 passes for 61 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. The Bills also kept him behind the line of scrimmage, marking the only game this season in which Mahomes did not record at least one scramble under pressure. It won’t get much easier for him against a Broncos defense that ranks second with 17 pressures per game and has allowed the seventh-lowest scramble rate under pressure at 7%.

Bo Nix co-leads all quarterbacks (alongside Matthew Stafford) with 47 deep attempts, where he has had mixed results. On one hand, his 13 big-time throws and eight touchdowns rank top five among qualifying quarterbacks, but his 32% completion percentage and three interceptions rank bottom five. The Chiefs have given up only nine deep completions and one deep touchdown this season, both ranking top-five among defenses.

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles

No receiving duo has been more dangerous to leave one-on-one than Philadelphia’s DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Against single coverage, Smith ranks third among all pass-catchers with 337 receiving yards, with Brown right behind him in fourth at 334. The Bengals are the only other team with two different pass-catchers ranked in the top 15 (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Expect more opportunities against a Lions defense that ranks fourth with a 35% man-coverage rate.

Jared Goff was nearly perfect on quick passes (2.5 seconds or less) against the Commanders last week, completing 19 of 21 throws for 254 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. On the season, he leads all quarterbacks with 1,321 passing yards and a 132.6 passer rating on quick passes. However, the Eagles will be a tougher test, as they have allowed the fewest yards per attempt (5.1) and lowest passer rating (75.5) against quick throws.

Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders defense runs one of the highest rates of Cover 3 in the league, using the coverage on 46% of their defensive snaps, the highest mark in the NFL this season. One of the best ways to beat Cover 3 is up the seams, which is music to the ears of Dak Prescott. Since 2021, Prescott has thrown a seam route 89 times, 23 more than the next-closest quarterback, Baker Mayfield. On those attempts, Prescott has graded out as the best passer with a 97.9 PFF pass grade.

One of the few bright spots of the Raiders offense this season has been their zone rush game. On zone runs, the Raiders rank 12th in yards per attempt (4.4) and ninth in explosive rush rate (10-plus yards) at 12.5%. This week, they face a Cowboys defense that has a 44.1 run-defense grade against zone rushes, the second-worst mark in the league this season.