The argument for paying Tutu Atwell a guaranteed $10 million salary has taken its hardest hit yet and it’s not because of what the Rams are doing with him, but what they’re doing without him. Since Atwell tweaked his hamstring in Week 7 practice, the Rams have improved from ranking 16th in scoring at 23.3 points per game to 2nd in scoring at 37 points per game.
You read that right: The L.A. Rams have scored 111 points in three games without the guy who “stretches the defense” for an eight figure salary. They have scored 35, 34, and 42 points since Week 7 with the only team scoring more than L.A. being the Cincinnati Bengals (113 points) and that’s because the Bengals had no other choice after giving up 117 points in that span. (The Rams have given up 43 points in that time.)
It turns out that Sean McVay actually was supposed to be using his tight ends and not the player who Les Snead will end up paying about $2.5 million per catch this season.
As was also the case when I wrote about Atwell two weeks ago as possibly “the worst one-year contract in team history”, this is not to just rag on a good person who got overpaid. The contract was not his fault. Any of us would have taken a $10 million offer knowing that no other GM or owner was even going to come close to that number after the four seasons that Atwell had to start his career.
It looked like an absurd deal in March, it looked like an absurd deal in September, and it still looks like an absurd deal with Atwell on IR.
Atwell was only targeted nine times in six appearances and only caught four passes with more than 50% of his 164 yards coming on a single play, which was against a 10-man Colts defense, but nine men if we count the cornerback-covering-Tutu falling down.
Was Tutu Atwell “stretching” the defense? Were the Rams smart to turn down opportunities to trade for a speedy receiver who could replace him, such as Rashid Shaheed?
Well, maybe in a month or two we will see it differently, but without any notable speed on offense the L.A. Rams have become the most unstoppable force in the league over their past three games:
- 35 points against the Jaguars (Stafford: 5 TD, 0 INT)
- 34 points against the Saints (Stafford: 4 TD, 0 INT)
- 42 points against the 49ers (Stafford: 4, 0 INT)
Without Tutu Atwell, Stafford has made NFL history by throwing 4+ TD and 0 INT in three straight games.
Without Atwell, Davante Adams has caught six touchdowns in three games.
I mean geez louise Rams, yes some of us were trying to make a point that the offense could be functional, if not better, without Tutu Atwell…but did you have to rub it in his face?
According to Next Gen Stats, the Rams had an EPA (estimated points added) per play of +0.34 against the 49ers, their best mark of 2025.
When the Rams faced the Saints, they had an offensive EPA of +0.26 per play, their second-best mark of 2025.
In fact, L.A.’s game against the 49ers was tied for the 11th-best performance by any offense this season and the Saints game was tied for 24th. As McVay has adjusted to an offense without a receiver who the Rams “had to keep” in March, he has unlocked the first iteration of an MVP Matthew Stafford that the NFL has ever seen.
Because of 13 personnel
According to Next Gen Stats, McVay’s use of 13 personnel (3 tight ends, 1 RB, 1 WR) on 44.8% of his plays in Week 10 was the 2nd-heaviest usage of 13 since 2016 and their third straight game (i.e. without Tutu) over 38%.
The Rams explosive play rate (20%) and average of 6.7 yards per play in 13 personnel is far and above what the Rams were doing in the first six weeks. It’s led the L.A. Rams to being the most unstoppable offense in the NFL over the past month of games without Tutu. As opposed to running out 3 WRs when they have Atwell and feel the need to use their $10 million investment, the Rams pass far less often out of 13 — as you’d expect — but the plays (pass and run) are far more efficient, effective, and explosive, as detailed in this chart by Sam Hoppen:
Whether that 1 WR is Puka Nacua or Adams, the Rams are able to deploy a true number one option next to three tight ends and Stafford is able to distribute the ball to whoever is the most open.
While Nacua was averaging (and UNSUSTAINABLE) 12.4 targets per game in the first five weeks, he’s down to 7 targets per game since returning from injury. And despite that, Nacua is still an absurdly valuable weapon, gaining over 11 yards per target and averaging over 80 yards per game despite only playing 50% of the snaps.
Adams has had 23 targets in the last three games and he’s caught six touchdowns despite playing in less than 60% of the snaps.
Terrance Ferguson’s arrival
Meanwhile, after waiting to see if and when L.A.’s top pick would get more playing time, that has happened since Atwell’s injury. Ferguson has gone from 8 total snaps in the first 5 games to then having 17 snaps when Atwell missed the Ravens game and now 80 snaps in the last three games.
And although Ferguson only caught one of four targets against the 49ers, some catch attempts uglier than others, he’s certainly proving to be a dynamic downfield weapon.
So would you still rather have Tutu Atwell on the field than Ferguson?
Colby Parkinson, the Rams’ biggest contract whiff until Atwell came along, has caught 9-of-10 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown in the last three games. Suddenly L.A. has found contract value where it was previously lost.
Even Davis Allen caught his first touchdown since Week 2.
Tyler Higbee has caught from six catches and no touchdowns in his first four games to 13 catches, 105 yards, and 2 touchdowns in his last four games.
Where once we wondered if the Rams had a huge problem in the tight end room, now we can ask if it could be the best tight end room in the NFL when L.A. gets to the playoffs.
So while we can’t say that Atwell was holding the Rams back…
Wait, why can’t we? Why can’t we say exactly that?
The Rams have clearly adjusted their personnel usage because Atwell was injured, which maybe came at “convenient” timing given that he may have been headed to the bench around that time anyway, and since doing that L.A. has the best offense in the NFL. Stafford has gone from having a very typical great but non-MVP Stafford season to having the season that Lions fans were waiting to happen since 2009.
How can anyone argue that these two things — Atwell replaced by TEs on the field + Rams offense goes bonanza — are anything other than related?
Saying that the Tutu Atwell contract was anything other than a mistake would be…a stretch.
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