• Available exclusively to PFF+ subscribers in the PFF app, the PFF Player Prop Tool harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup data to help you make smarter, faster and more confident picks. Download the PFF app now — available on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) [Total: 44.5]

Game Overview

The AFC playoff race is heating up, and this matchup between two postseason contenders will have far-reaching implications on each franchise’s chances. 

For Pittsburgh, a win would go a long way toward not only securing a playoff berth — increasing their probability to 70% — but also strengthening their grasp on the AFC North over a resurgent Baltimore Ravens team. Conversely, a loss would plummet their playoff odds to 45% and put their preseason win total (8.5) in jeopardy. The Steelers’ 1-2 record against the spread on the road will be tested. This will be a good indication of what can be expected from the team down the stretch with a difficult road schedule remaining.

There is momentum on Pittsburgh’s sideline after the team’s strong performance against the Indianapolis Colts this past week, in which the defense forced six turnovers, winning outright as three-point home underdogs. However, defensive consistency has hindered the team’s potential this season. 

For the Chargers, mounting injuries couldn’t come at a worse time. Left tackle Joe Alt is out for the year, leaving the offensive line strapped for capable blockers. Los Angeles is looking to fend off a surging Kansas City Chiefs team, both in the division and the wild-card race. A win would move their playoff chances to 78%, while a loss would drop them to 55%, with the ninth-most difficult remaining schedule.    

Los Angeles will look to rely on its ninth-ranked defense in PFF team defensive grade (71.2) to step up against a Steelers offense that ranks just above league average in EPA per play (0.007).

Explore Top Player Props

RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 60.5 rushing yards (-111) 

Although the Chargers have allowed some explosive performances to running backs this season, that hasn’t been the case since Khalil Mack‘s full return to the lineup. Mack owns an 87.9 PFF run-defense grade dating back to last season, and Los Angeles’ unit thrives with its leader present.

When Mack has been on the field, the Chargers have surrendered the fifth-lowest EPA per rush (-0.149) in the NFL — a far cry from the generous unit that ranks 22nd in the same category when Mack is out. 

With the Steelers running 12 personnel at the fourth-highest rate (38.6%) in the NFL, this matchup could let the Chargers play out of heavy fronts. That will allow Los Angeles to prominently feature Teair Tart, the second-highest-graded interior run defender (90.4) in the NFL this season. 

While Jaylen Warren stands as the lead back in the Steelers’ backfield, the workload fluctuates significantly. Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson are seeing carries, as well, so Warren has totaled a 59.6% share of the rushing attempts. That inconsistent workload has led Warren to surpass this mark in just two games this season.

The Steelers also deploy a zone-heavy running scheme, running the concepts on more than 62% of their run plays. That could work in the Chargers‘ favor, as they have defended the concept well, posting the fourth-highest team PFF run-defense grade (67.0) against zone runs this season.