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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.

Matthew Stafford primed for a big day against the San Francisco 49ers

PFF has studied how specific quarterback traits interact with defensive strengths and matchups to create uneven performance distributions. One clear pattern emerged: quarterbacks with limited mobility are far more sensitive to difficult defensive matchups, particularly when forced to scramble.

One of those quarterbacks is Matthew Stafford, who has struggled at times against tougher defenses but has dominated weaker units. This week, he faces a 49ers defense decimated by injuries and trending downward over the past month. San Francisco ranks fourth-worst in disruption rate during that span and sits in the bottom 10 across most defensive metrics.

While betting markets are already pricing in a strong performance from Stafford, there’s still upside given the favorable matchup and high projected passing volume — making same-game parlays built around his efficiency an appealing option.

PFF studied how variations in pass protection impact offensive performance — specifically, how moving from average pass blocking to bottom-percentile levels creates significant issues in protection and efficiency.

For the Chargers, the loss of Joe Alt leaves an offensive line filled with weak links — several of whom have a successful blocking percentage below 87.5%, where the performance curve begins to steepen sharply.

Making matters worse, they face a Steelers pass rush that ranks second in quick-pressure rate over the past month, returning to the dominant form it showed last season. Pittsburgh’s front should create significant problems for the Chargers’ offense.

This ties into another trend we’ve studied at PFF: how scrambling ability can mitigate the impact of an elite pass rush.

Justin Herbert has been one of the NFL’s most frequent scramblers this season — and one of its most effective — ranking third in EPA on those plays. Over the past three weeks, his scramble rate has climbed to 30%, and his rate of running on scrambles has doubled from 15% to 30%, making his rushing yardage prop especially appealing.

I’ll be on Herbert’s rushing yards and alternate lines, backing his ability to create on the move against a Steelers defense that should generate pressure, even if it results in a few sacks along the way.