It’s been impossible to do any sort of meaningful statistical analysis of the Minnesota Vikings this season because the only thing that’s been consistent about them this season has been their inconsistency. There is a stat for that of course, brought to you by those who compile DVOA stats and it’s called variance. It tracks the week-to-week variance in a team’s Total DVOA.
Consistently Inconsistent
After nine weeks and eight games, the Vikings have the second-highest variance in the league at 30.1%, 0.1% lower than the league leading Commanders. The Vikings have shown high variance all season. This shows up not just in their DVOA, but other stats as well. It also shows in their largely alternating weekly results- win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, loss, win.
In Total DVOA terms, which is expressed as a percentage relative to “average”, the Vikings had the worst Total DVOA week two against the Falcons (-65.0%), then had the best DVOA week three against the Bengals (+76.5%), then week four had the fourth-worst DVOA (-54.6%) against the Steelers. And week eight against the Chargers they once again had the worst weekly DVOA at -83.0%, but followed it up with DVOA of +42.7% against the Lions- fourth best that week.
The pattern suggests the Vikings will once again be off-the-charts bad against the Ravens on Sunday, but I wouldn’t bet on that either. The Ravens are a Super Bowl contender when healthy, and they are healthy now, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Vikings lost on Sunday. But the Vikings’ performance doesn’t seem to be based on the quality of their opponent. Their worst performances in DVOA terms came against the Falcons and Chargers, neither of which look like contenders this season and it wouldn’t be surprising if neither made the playoffs either. Their best performances came against the Bengals- who are bad- but also against the Lions, who are contenders.
If you look only at games J.J. McCarthy started, the Vikings’ Total DVOA in those games was +7.9%, -65.0%, and +42.7% – once again inconsistent.
And breaking it down further into offensive and defensive DVOA paints a similar picture. Defensively the Vikings started with two near average games, one great game against the Bengals, four moderately bad games, then one good game against the Lions. Offensively, the Vikings started with an average game, then really bad game against the Falcons, followed by a moderately bad game, then bad game, then good game, then moderately bad, really bad, then near (but below) average game against the Lions.
Breaking it down even further, the Vikings have had good and bad games running the ball and defending the run, and good and bad games defending the pass. They’ve had bad games passing, and less bad-to-average games passing, but no really good games.
The most consistent part of the Vikings this season has been special teams, where they’ve had six average games (+/- 5%) in DVOA) and two good games against the Bengals and Lions.
The most plausible explanation for the Vikings remarkable lack of consistency has been injuries. The Vikings have suffered a lot of injuries to starters, particularly on offense, and that explains a lot of the inconsistency. Defensively they haven’t had as many, but losing Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel for several games didn’t help.
Still, injuries don’t explain everything. The Vikings best game offensively by far in DVOA terms came week five against the Browns, who aren’t a good team overall but have a very good defense. The Vikings didn’t have J.J. McCarthy, Aaron Jones, Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly (Blake Brandel made his first start at center), Brian O’Neill, and Christian Darrisaw was out for the last third of offensive snaps.
The Vikings worst game defensively came against the Chargers when they had everyone but Andrew Van Ginkel back and starting.
In their best games this season, the Vikings seemed to have the better game plan. Offensively against the Browns, the Vikings had a plan to get the ball out quickly knowing they would likely be outmatched in the trenches. Against the Lions, the Vikings had answers for the Lions offense and particularly their run game, and also against their defense. Everything went right for the Vikings from the get-go against the Bengals. But against the Steelers and Chargers in particular, the Vikings seem to have been outcoached. The Steelers had answers for Brian Flores’ scheme early on, and so did Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.
Overall, the Vikings haven’t always had the best game plan and that has led to some of the inconsistency. Between a young McCarthy and Carson Wentz at quarterback, the Vikings aren’t built to do well when playing from behind- although McCarthy pulled out the win late against the Bears. But falling behind can force changes to the intended game plan and being forced to pass behind a makeshift offensive line with a young or backup quarterback isn’t a recipe for success.
Early games in the season can be more difficult to game plan for coaches as teams haven’t shown much and can employ unscouted looks that catch opponents off guard. Sometimes that can account for some inconsistency early on. The Vikings seemed to be caught off guard a bit more this year whereas they may have surprised more teams a year ago.
But overall, this season has been uncharacteristically inconsistent for the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell. The last two seasons- including the injury-riddled 2023 season, the Vikings finished with the third lowest DVOA variance. In 2022 they finished 13th, but still under 10%, compared to over 30% so far this season.
So Can the Vikings Win Two in a Row?
The Vikings face another contender on Sunday in the Baltimore Ravens despite their record so far this season. They are healthy now and can afford another loss even less than the Vikings. They’re also less likely to look past the Vikings after they upset the Lions last week.
So for the Vikings to make it two wins in a row, they’ll need to play at least as well as they did last week in Detroit and have an equally good game plan. The Vikings are healthy for the second week of the season, so that should help. The Vikings’ team captains also had a conference call the night before the Lions game that may have concentrated minds a bit, which showed up in the energy and physicality they showed against the Lions- although you’d hope the Vikings would be motivated for the Lions after being swept by them last season. The question now is can they bring the same intensity against a non-division opponent that most haven’t played against together and who likely will be playing with something closer to a ‘season on the line’ mentality.
Last season the Vikings had five and nine-game win streaks broken up by one two-game losing streak similar in some ways to the two-game losing streak this season: A close loss against a top contender followed by a worse loss in a Thursday night game at SoFi Stadium.
Perhaps being healthy and once again being framed as an ‘also-ran’ team with a questionable quarterback- as they were at the start of last season- will give them the chip on their shoulder that they’ve been lacking this season apart from last Sunday. Perhaps this is just a different season and the inconsistency will continue and the Vikings will get blown out on Sunday. We’ll see. But this is an opportunity for the Vikings to break the pattern of inconsistency and hopefully take another big step toward getting right this season.
But there is a big range of outcomes for this game on Sunday. Just where the Vikings fall in that range could be a preview for the rest of the season.
Stay tuned.
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