The Minnesota Vikings are returning home to U.S. Bank Stadium to face yet another 2024 playoff team with high expectations for 2025, the Baltimore Ravens. It was frustrating enough that the NFL schedulers deliberately made things difficult with back-to-back European games, followed by a quick turnaround to travel to L.A. to face a Chargers team coming off a home game. However, so far, circumstances haven’t been in the Vikings’ favor either. We faced an Eagles team coming off two straight losses, and a Chargers team that lost three of their last four. Now, here come the Ravens, who fell into a 1-5 hole and have less room for error than I have on a Costco run with screenshots of everything on the list. Any chance of complacency is gone. We’re locked in, baby.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention these well-known Vikings-Ravens factoids: Every season the Vikings beat the Ravens, they not only make the playoffs but also reach the NFC Championship Game (‘98, ‘09, and ‘17). When they lose, they don’t (’01, ’05, ’13, and ’21). Oh, and in those losing years, the Vikings coach was fired. That too. At least that isn’t happening – there’s a better chance of, well, me not screwing up a Costco order with screenshots of everything on the list. KOC is going nowhere.
Scouting the Ravens: Offense
There’s little value in a complete statistical breakdown of the Ravens offense so far this year. It would exemplify the principle of “garbage in, garbage out,” as Lamar Jackson has missed four of their nine games. In the four full games he has played, however, he’s accounted for 14 total touchdowns to the tune of 34.7 points per game. He’s arguably the biggest matchup nightmare in the NFL. While the Ravens’ wide receivers aren’t at the level of the Eagles or Lions, the trade-off is having to contend with Jackson’s dual-threat ability. Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert are dangerous, but Jackson’s threat is on another level. The Vikings have had a tough time finishing on sacks and are 13th in missed tackles this year (52). Finishing at the point of attack and limiting his ability to scramble—especially in critical third-down situations—will likely be a key focus for Brian Flores this week.
Of course, Derrick Henry is still Derrick Henry and just as dangerous as ever. He’ll pose at least as tough a challenge for the front seven as Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs. The good news? We managed to handle those challenges, but it won’t be easy. There will undoubtedly be a line of Vikings defenders eager to hit the ice tub on Monday morning. I’d be surprised if Flores’s strategy differs much from what we saw against the Eagles: focus on stopping Henry, contain Jackson within the pocket as best as possible, and hope the secondary can hold up. It didn’t work against the Eagles, with several big plays and key 3rd-and-long breakdowns costing us dearly. The Eagles’ offensive line is superior, so that might influence any improvements we could see.
Scouting the Ravens: Defense
On defense, the Baltimore Ravens remind me of players like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and many others. That’s why it’s a bit strange to see their defense so…vulnerable. Going into Week 10, their defensive averages per game are: 27th in total yards allowed, 28th in passing yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards, and 24th in points. They’re also tied for 23rd in turnovers and sit at 31st in sacks with 11.
On paper, this should be a golden opportunity for J.J. McCarthy to put together the first complete performance of his career. That may not mean throwing for 300 yards (or even 250), but it could involve greater efficiency on third down and more chunk plays than he’s seen in previous starts. There should also be chances to build on the strong running game performance from last week, especially if we can gain an early lead. I don’t think I’m breaking any news in saying KOC will want to keep Jackson and Henry on the bench.
Prediction:
In forecasting the 2025 season back in May, I had this to say regarding Week 10:
Week 10: Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are good. Really good. Well-coached and capable of blowing anyone out on any given Sunday. Their thorough dismantling of a legit Lions team in 2023 still lingers. I’m just not there (yet) to pick us here. Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry. Strong (if not great) defense. Thanks to a great Flores game plan, we’re right there late in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, it’s not enough. Henry breaks one to run out the clock and close it out.
Baltimore Ravens: 24
Minnesota Vikings: 21
Two factors favor the Vikings. First, McCarthy looked confident returning against a top-tier opponent, which eased nerves. My expectations for him last Sunday ranged from playing exceptionally well to a repeat of his struggles in the first two weeks (except for the fourth quarter of Week 1). Thankfully, what actually happened was much closer to the former. Yes, he needs to be more efficient in the passing game, but that should improve with time. However, McCarthy appeared confident and had the right vibe and body language for starting only his third NFL game. He seemed more comfortable than in the Bears and Falcons games, despite some caveats in Week 2. The Ravens’ defense is inconsistent, providing plenty of opportunities to improve throughout the four quarters. I’m very optimistic about this.
The second factor is the defense. If Flores’s group plays like it did against the Lions, I don’t care who we’re facing: it’ll be a long afternoon. It was exactly the type of unit I envisioned all offseason. As mentioned, we need to improve on finishing plays a little better. However, if this is the defense we see for the rest of the season, then we could have our ticket to the postseason with just a competent offense moving forward.
With that said, the Ravens are the Ravens. Lamar is Lamar. Henry is Henry. John Harbaugh is a Top 5 coach in the NFL. I’d be absolutely shocked if we don’t see their “A” game on Sunday. They dug themselves into a quick hole. While not insurmountable given their track record, at 3-6, they’d likely need to go 7-1 to secure a playoff spot.
Then again, if precedent holds (see above), we miss the playoffs with a loss. I actually forgot about that when making my original season prediction. I’m not confident in this at all, but I’m not going against history. It tends to repeat itself, you know.
Vikings 27
Ravens 26
See More:
