Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) at 8:20 p.m. Monday
The Line: Packers minus-2.5/Total: 45.5
What is the line telling you:
The line on this matchup originally opened with the Packers as small 3-point home favorites and the total set at 44.5. Since then, we’ve seen some early money hit the sports betting screen on the Eagles, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line below that key number down to -2.5.
As of now, the Packers are 2.5-point favorites. The early public money is heavily tilted, with over 70% of the action on Philadelphia.
The Eagles have an impressive 3-1 road record this season, but they’ve been extremely lucky—winning the turnover battle in all three of those games with a +5 turnover differential against the Vikings (+2), Buccaneers (+2), and Chiefs (+1). They also haven’t faced a defense on the road this season that ranks in the top 10 in opponent yards per play (the Packers rank No. 2, only behind the Broncos).
The Eagles are tied for the best record in the NFC, but there are four teams with a better point differential—and the Packers are one of them. The Eagles are sitting pretty at 6-2, but being honest, there are holes in this football team. The Eagles are healthy going into this game, but if you look at a sleeper team like Seattle, which may be better than the Eagles, or Detroit, or Green Bay, health will play a big part. Injuries will be big moving forward. If you are an Eagles’ fan you have to be happy at 6-2.
Bottom line:
You can’t argue with success, but the Eagles rank outside the top 15 both offensively and defensively in the YPP and OYPP metrics. The Eagles also rank No. 6 in luck ratio this season, but their luck runs out at Lambeau Field this week. We like the Packers here -2.5. It’s a great buy-low spot after losing at home last week to the Panthers as big favorites. If you do like the Eagles, you’re better off betting them in a 7-point teaser and catching +9.5—tie them in with the Bills -2.5 and you’ll most likely cash a ticket.
Prop bets for the game:
Jalen Hurts under 210 Passing Yards (-125)
Jalen Hurts anytime TD (+125)
Jordan Love over 1.5 (-120)
Christian Watson anytime TD (+320)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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