It’s been a rough start to the year for On Paper, as the Detroit Lions’ games have rarely gone as the statistics have suggested this year. This week, there appears to be a significant statistical advantage between the Lions and the Washington Commanders. But will that result in another upset victory, and will the numbers finally not lie?
Let’s take a closer look at the Lions vs. Commanders Week 10 matchup in our On Paper preview and prediction.
Lions pass offense (10th in DVOA) vs. Commanders pass defense (24th)
By the basic statistics, you’d never know that the Lions’ offense is actually starting to struggle a bit. They’re second in passer rating for the season (116.5) and sixth in yards per attempt (8.0). But a little bit of a deeper dive highlights what’s not working in the passing game.
For one, their pass protection has struggled immensely as of late. Despite going three straight games without allowing a sack—Chicago, Baltimore, and Cleveland—the Lions now rank 20th in sack rate (6.9%), 16th in pressure rate (33.7%), and 21st in PFF pass blocking grade.
And when you dig into some of the more advanced efficiency metrics, you’re starting to see a dip there, too. Detroit’s passing offense ranks eighth in EPA per dropback and ninth in success rate. In other words, what was a top-five passing attack is beginning to slip out of the top-10.
Now, it’s still a strong unit. Outside of those pass protection metrics, you’d be hard pressed to find the Lions outside of the top half of the league, and most stats still have them in the top-10. But the trajectory is certainly a bit troubling.
And here’s where things align for a bounce-back week for Detroit. The Commanders have allowed all but two opponents to meet or outgain their seasonal averages, and in one of those cases, it was a terrible Russell Wilson-led offense. That leaves just one oddly-impressive game against Justin Herbert and the Chargers… and nothing else.
For the entire season, this has been one of the worst pass defenses in football. They rank:
- 30th in passer rating allowed (110.7)
- 32nd in yards per attempt (8.9)
- 29th in dropback EPA (0.232)
- 23rd in success rate (49.6%)
As always, when you see a slight outlier like that in success rate, it points to explosive plays, and the Commanders have been hemorrhaging them. They’re tied for the most 20+ yard passing plays allowed (34) and tied for the most 40+ yards plays (nine) allowed.
And due to injuries on the defensive front (Dorance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise, Javontae Jean-Baptiste) and secondary (Will Harris, Marshon Lattimore), both the coverage and pass rush for this team has struggled. They rank 31st in PFF team coverage grade (40.2). Their PFF pass rush grade is 18th, and their pressure rate is 13th (34.7%) despite blitzing the 12th-highest rate (27.4%). Armstrong remains the player with the most sacks on the team (5.5) despite the fact that he suffered his season-ending injury in mid-October.
Player to watch: Sam LaPorta. The Commanders rank 21st in DVOA given up to tight ends this year, and they’ve allowed at least one tight end touchdown in each of the last three games:
- Seahawks TE Elijah Arroyo: 2 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: 6 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD
- Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson: 7 catches, 29 yards, 2 TDs
Advantage: Lions +3. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic here, but there’s very little about the Commanders pass defense that scares me. Maybe they take a page out of the Vikings’ defense and try to turn up the pressure, but they don’t have the versatile edge defenders to successfully drop into coverage. I think this could be a huge bounce-back game for the entire Lions’ passing attack.
Lions run offense (12th) vs. Commanders run defense (15th)
Where we’ve seen decline in the passing game over recent weeks, it’s been even worse running the football. They’ve really only successfully run the ball once in the past four games, and as many have pointed out, their overall efficiency numbers are boosted by just a few monster runs, which you’ll see reflected in the stats below:
- 4.4 yards per carry (13th)
- 125.1 rushing yards per game (ninth)
- -0.051 rush EPA (16th)
- 39.2% success rate (22nd)
It’s time to call this running game what it is: below average. Detroit is one of just six teams with three rushes of 40+ yards. You take away just the two best runs of the season (78 and 72 yards), the Lions’ yards per carry drop all the way down to 3.8 yards per carry. Yes, there is something to be said about being an explosive running attack, but even those plays aren’t happening frequently enough. The Lions actually rank 26th in rushing plays of 10+ yards this season.
Oddly, the Lions rank fifth in PFF run blocking grade and 27th in rush grade, suggesting many of the problems are coming from the running backs. But that doesn’t seem to vibe with other stats. The Lions rank 25th in ESPN’s run-block win rate, 18th in adjusted line yards, and 10th in yards before contact per carry. There’s enough variance here to comfortably say that neither the blocking nor the running backs are doing enough here.
Well, luckily for the Lions, this is another thing the Commanders don’t seem to do very well. Though they have played some tough rushing attacks, they have allowed just about every one to exceed their seasonal averages.
For the season, they rank:
- 19th in yards per carry (4.4)
- 22nd in yards per game (124.2)
- 20th in rush EPA (—0.048)
- 13th in success rate (40.6%)
What’s interesting about this team is that up the middle, they’re one of the best run defenses in football. PFF has them with the sixth-highest run defense grade, they’re fourth in ESPN’s run-stop win rate, and 10th in adjusted line yards. But their efficiency metrics are so bad because of how they defend runs to the outside.
Between tackles runs:
- 10th in EPA/rush (-0.10)
- 13th in stuffed rate (16.0%)
- 8th in yards per carry (3.7)
Outside tackles runs:
- 24th in EPA/rush (+0.06)
- 18th in stuffed rate (17.2%)
- 25th in yards per carry (5.4)
Player to watch: Daron Payne. The Commanders defensive tackle ranks seventh in ESPN run-stop win rate (43%), and currently second in the NFL in “wins” among interior defenders.
Advantage: Draw. While this seems like a game Jahmyr Gibbs could attack the edges of the defense, the Lions have not been particularly good at that this year. The Lions rank 29th in EPA/rush, 27th in yards per carry, and 18th in stuffed rate outside the tackles. It’s weakness vs. weakness in this matchup, so who knows which way it goes?
Commanders pass offense (20th) vs. Lions pass defense (2nd)
I’m not going to get too much into the difference between Jayden Daniels at quarterback vs. Marcus Mariota, because, quite honestly, there isn’t that much of a difference, both stylistically and efficiency-wise. The big takeaway from this chart is that Terry McLaurin is probably the most important player when it comes to the Commanders passing attack. They’ve been without him since Week 3—aside from a brief cameo in the Chiefs game—and you can see the downward spiral from this team.
Overall, the Commanders rank:
- 19th in passer rating (90.0)
- 16th in yards per attempt (7.1)
- 20th in dropback EPA (0.061)
- 13th in success rate (48.5%)
It’s not a terrible unit, but I think calling Washington’s passing attack average with a downward trend is fair.
Pass protection has been fine, ranking 12th in PFF grade, 19th in pressure rate, and 23rd in sack rate. While both quarterbacks are able to escape pressure, they also tend to hold onto the ball a little too long. Mariota’s 2.90 time to throw would rank eighth-highest in the NFL if he had enough qualified dropbacks.
The Lions’ pass defense continues to hold up pretty strong this season. While I think the second-highest DVOA ranking is a bit aggressive, I think it’s fair to call this a top-10 unit. Here are some other stats to support that:
- 12th in passer rating (89.7)
- 10th in yards per attempt (6.7)
- 5th in dropback EPA (-0.019)
- 4th in success rate (41.8%)
Normally, I’d be skeptical of a pass defense that ranks high in disruptive plays, as the Lions do. They have the second-most sacks in the league (28) and are tied for the sixth-most interceptions (eight). But their top-10 success rate suggests they are much more than just the big plays.
Pass rush stats remain the same as always—slow but effective. Detroit ranks dead last in time to throw allowed (2.98), but they’re fifth in pressure rate (39.5%) and fourth in sack rate (9.1%). The marriage between coverage and pressure is real. The coverage strength is highlighted by the sixth-most pass breakups in the league (45), and PFF’s fifth-highest coverage grade (72.0).
Player to watch: Zach Ertz. The Lions have done a relatively good job bottling up tight ends this year (15th in DVOA), but Ertz is the safety valve for this offense. He’s second only to Deebo Samuel in team targets (44), receptions (31) and receiving yards (291). He also leads the team in receiving touchdowns (four).
Advantage: Lions +2. The Commanders just don’t have the receiving options to threaten this defense. Not only is McLaurin expected to be out, but they also just lost Luke McCaffrey, who was their big-play threat.
Commanders run offense (13th) vs. Lions run defense (8th)
If there’s one thing the Commanders can still hang their hat on, it’s their rushing attack. I’m a little befuddled as to why their DVOA ranking is so low because this looks like a top-10 unit to me—and could sneak its way into the top-five. Sure, they’ve faced some bad run defenses this year, but this team has also averaged over 5.5 yards per carry in just about half of their games this year.
For the season, they rank:
- Third in YPC (5.1)
- Fourth in rushing yards per game (139.9)
- 10th in rush EPA (-0.022)
- Seventh in success rate (45.4%)
Additionally, Mariota gives them an opportunity to use designed runs and scrambles. In five games, he has 18 rushes for 122 yards and a TD (6.8 YPC).
Their offensive line has remained healthy most of the season, and it’s paid off in the run game. They rank 11th in run block win rate, 16th in adjusted line yards, but just 22nd in PFF run blocking grade.
The crew of running backs have shined this year, despite losing Austin Ekeler for the year. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt is averaging 3.8 yards after contact per rush (seventh), and +0.7 rushing yards over expected per rush (15th).
The Lions run defense has a couple oddly shaky performances against two teams who don’t run the ball particularly well. But other than that, it’s looked pretty good this season. My faith was shaken a little bit, and Kelvin Sheppard’s fuzzy math didn’t do much to make me feel better. Still, for the season, this is a pretty good unit:
- 13th in YPC (4.1)
- 10th in rushing yards per game (94.5)
- 10th in rush EPA (-0.099)
- 17th in success rate (41.1%)
Player to watch: Alim McNeill. While McNeill’s debut was fantastic against the Bucs, it seemed like he slowed down last week. Now that he’s up to a full load of snaps in each game, he’ll need to be a force in run defense again.
Advantage: Commanders +0.5. I’m confident Washington is going to try to run the ball about 40 times in this game to control the tempo and avoid having to air it out. Detroit’s recent struggles against the run make me a little concerned here, but there’s enough hope here for the Lions to at least hold Washington near their season averages.
Last week’s prediction
While I displayed some nervousness over on Pride of Detroit Direct, I still predicted a two-score win for the Lions over the Vikings last week. That drops On Paper to just 3-5 on the year and 4-4 against the spread. I was most wrong about Detroit’s run offense and run defense, which is why you see some lack of trust in those units here today.
In the comment section, I counted exactly two people who picked the Vikings to win, and the closest was Hankfan232425 with their 24-20 Vikings prediction. Here is your prize, Hank.
This week’s prediction
The Lions come out with a +4.5 advantage, which is relatively big by On Paper standards. Detroit holds significant advantages in the passing game on both sides of the ball, while it’s basically a draw when it comes to running the football. With rain in the forecast for Washington, it could drive this game closer than it should be.
But unlike last week, these statistical advantages should hold, because the Commanders are headed in the wrong direction and they aren’t getting any healthier. I think this is a comfortable win for the Lions this week. Lions 34, Commanders 17.
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