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In the most efficient betting market in sports, every move matters. NFL sides and totals attract massive liquidity, making them less volatile than their college football counterparts — but also more revealing. This article breaks down the key drivers of line movement and offers tools to help you distinguish overreactions from sharp, justified adjustments.

Injuries, weather and public pick releases are just a few factors that can swing numbers. But spotting early signals — before prices settle into full efficiency — is where betting edges are made. Below, we’ll walk through how notable market-maker openers have shifted since Sunday and what those moves might be telling us.

New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears: Total 49 → 46.5

There’s been a significant move on the total in this matchup, falling nearly three points from the opener of 49. It’s been a slow, steady decline, with 46.5 now the consensus number. There was some resistance at 47, as a few books briefly ticked back up to 47.5. Most books are sitting at 46.5, with a few 47s still available. Nothing below 46.5 has appeared in the market so far.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: Total 39.5 → 37.5

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been ruled out, with Davis Mills set to start at home. Given the nature of Stroud’s injury last week, it’s no surprise he’ll miss this game, and the market had largely priced in that possibility. Following the official announcement, the total dropped another point to 37.5, and the spread moved a point in favor of the Jaguars, from -1 to -2.

Play: Over 37.5 (-105 at ESPNBet)

I’ll buy back on the market movement, mainly because this total had already accounted for Stroud’s absence before it dropped another point following the official announcement. The Jaguars will look to newly acquired receiver Jakobi Meyers to help unlock their vertical passing attack.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks: Cardinals +7 → +6.5

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray’s injury, we now have clarity on Arizona’s quarterback situation. Jacoby Brissett has been officially named the starter for at least the next few weeks. Following that news, the line dropped from 7 to 6.5, where it still stands. A few 7s remain on the board. With Brissett under center, the Cardinals have covered in each of their past two games, including a win over the Cowboys as 3.5-point road underdogs. This week presents a tougher test with a trip to Seattle, and Brissett will need to continue distributing the ball to Arizona’s playmakers to keep pace with a surging Seahawks offense.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -3.5 → -4.5

These divisional foes meet for the second time this season after Mac Jones led the 49ers to an overtime win over the Rams in Los Angeles as 8.5-point underdogs in Week 5. San Francisco again finds itself as a sizeable underdog, this time at home. After opening at 3.5, the line held for a few days before a public pick release pushed it to 4.5. Since that Week 5 matchup, the Rams have won and covered in all three games they’ve played.