The New York Giants will start their run through the NFC North this week when they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears.
The Giants are coming are coming off three straight losses and carrying a 2-7 record as they enter the second half of the season.
The Bears are currently 5-3 on the season, coming off of a 47-point explosion (against an admittedly horrendous Bengals’ defense). Their own offense has only 25, 26, and 16 points in the three prior weeks. The Bears’ defense, meanwhile has given up 24, 14, 30, and 42 points over the last month.
Can the Giants’ offense score enough to win?
Breaking containment
Apologies to Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary, and pretty much everyone else; Jaxson Dart is the Giants’ offense.
Barring a defensive collapse (which is beyond the scope of this piece), the Giants will go as far as Dart carries them. So it obviously follows that defenses are beginning to experiment with ways to stop rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. We knew it was going to happen, but now the rookie’s continued progress will rest on how he adjusts to opponents’ adjustments.
Case in point, the Philadelphia Eagles tried blitzing Dart in their first meeting back in Week 6. While rookie quarterbacks are often vulnerable to the blitz, Dart excelled and made the Eagles pay for being aggressive. The second time around, they played more to contain Dart and keep the Giants’ depleted offense in front of them. That tactic worked, and the Giants only scored 17 points (or 24 points, if you count the late touchdown which was called back).
The San Francisco 49ers adopted a similar style of play, using a high rate of Cover 4 looks to keep the Giants’ offense confined to the short to intermediate area of the field, or keep the ball in Dart’s hand. When he did scramble, his propensity to try to will his team to success led to some massive hits.
The Giants should expect the Bears to use the concepts employed by the Eagles and 49ers in their respective games.
Now, the question becomes whether the Bears will be able to do so to any effectiveness.
The Eagles and 49ers prefer to sit in Cover 4, relying on a four-man rush to generate pressure. At a surface level, the Bears have a pretty even split between man and zone coverages. They play each roughly 50 percent of the time, though to wildly different effects.
The Bears call Cover 4 at the second-lowest rate in the NFL, and when they play zone coverage, it’s usually Cover 3 or Cover 2. Interestingly, the Bears are pretty good at playing quarters coverage, with the NFL’s 11th best EPA — though that could also be the effect of a small sample size.
Overall, the Bears are one of the worst zone coverage teams in the NFL, with the fourth-worst EPA the league when playing1 zone.
By contrast, the Bears much prefer playing man coverage. They call man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, just behind the Giants themselves, and call Cover 1 at the seventh-highest rate in the league. They’re also considerably better at man coverage than zone, boasting the NFL’s third-best EPA in man coverage and second-best EPA in Cover 1.
So what are the Giants to do?
The Bears will likely want to play their man coverage schemes as much as possible, while at least giving the appearance of containing Dart. Pre-snap motion and hard counts can help force the Bears to declare their coverages, allowing for audibles. Zone coverage has been effective against the Giants, but it’s an awkward fit for the Bears’ defense, so New York will likely want to use man coverage beaters to (try to) make Chicago pay for calling their preferred coverage schemes.
The Bears call Cover 2 and Cover 3 at a roughly even rate — approximately 20 percent of the time for each. Both coverages have vulnerable seams which can be attacked by the Giants’ athletic tight ends. The Giants could also take advantage of the lighter boxes used by Cover 2 shells by running the ball — the Bears are allowing a Giants-esque 5.1 yards per attempt — or hitting passes to Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary, or Wan’Dale Robinson out of the backfield.
It won’t be easy. The Giants’ depleted skill positions have left Jaxson Dart with few options that are both explosive and dependable. New York will have to resist frustration or impatience, field a methodical offense, and do what they can to provide Dart with options so he doesn’t feel the need to expose himself to risk.
Protect the ball
The Bears’ passing defense is probably best described as “mediocre to poor” overall. They’ve allowed the 12th most yards, the fourth-highest completion percentage, and the third-most passing touchdowns in the NFL. They’re ninth in air yardage allowed, but 11th in yards after catch (YAC) allowed.
So you might be asking why their man coverage EPA is so good.
The answer is that the Bears are the NFL’s best in generating turnovers. They currently lead the NFL with 19 turnovers, including 6 recovered fumbles and 13 interceptions, and they lead the NFL in the rate of opponents’ drives that end in a turnover (21.8%). In fact, they separation between league-leading Bears and the second highest rated Steelers (4.7 points) is nearly as great as the difference between the second place Steelers (17.1%) and the ninth placed New England Patriots (12.1%).
Despite the ugly look of the Giants turning the ball over on five-straight possessions against the New Orleans Saints, they’re usually pretty good at protecting the ball. They have nine turnovers on the season — six interceptions, three fumbles lost — and Dart has typically made good decisions when it comes to keeping the ball out of danger.
That said, the Giants simply can’t afford to be lax in their ball protection.
Dart’s play has allowed them to put points on the board even without Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, but they just do not have the talent on offense to overcome mistakes. The Bears aren’t a blitz-happy team, but they could look to try and confuse the rookie with post-snap coverage rotations as well as aggressively attack the ball at the catch point.
It will be up to Dart to correctly diagnose the Bears’ defense at the line of scrimmage, but one of the big questions for the Giants is who he’ll have available.
As mentioned above, the Giants’ tight ends could be a game-deciding factor and their biggest weapon in this matchup. However, they need to catch the ball to do so. Daniel Bellinger has proven to be an incredibly reliable option for Dart, catching 11 of 12 targets, with his lone incompletion being just the third drop of his career.
Theo Johnson, meanwhile, leads the Giants in receiving touchdowns with five, but he also leads the team in drops with four.
Bellinger suffered a neck injury against the Eagles which kept him out of the game against the 49ers, leading to far more 11-personnel and the load placed on Johnson. The Giants will need the second year tight end to finish his catches, but they could also really benefit from Bellinger’s return. The Bears will likely be opportunistic and pounce on any receiving mistake, so the Giants will need to give them as few opportunities as possible.
Win the line of scrimmage
Part of the Bears’ off-season rebuild was based on putting resources into the lines of scrimmage. They signed defensive linemen Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo in free agency, and selected DT Shemar Turner in the second round of the draft. However, the Bears’ defensive front hasn’t been particularly threatening this year.
They traded for DE/OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka at the trade deadline to help reinforce their front.
We don’t yet know what kind of impact Tryon-Shoyinka will have on the Bears’ front, or if he’ll even play this weekend.
Leaving the recent acquisition aside, the Bears’ front is 30th in pass rush win rate, 25th in run stop win rate.
Per ESPN,
Our pass rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Likewise, our pass block win rate metric conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.
In run stop win rate, a defender can earn a win by doing any of the following: beating his blocker so he’s in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backward; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. If a defender earns a run stop win, his blocker earns a loss — and vice versa.
The Bears currently rank 21st in sacks (17), 25th in pressure rate (18.5 percent of pass rush snaps), and 27th in hurry rate (5.5 percent).
The Giants offensive line, meanwhile, has actually established itself as a strength of the team. The Giants currently rank
Perhaps even more impressively, the Giants rank fourth in the NFL when graded on True Pass Sets.
Of course, the Giants could be without both starting right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor (pec) and center John Michael Schmitz (shin) against the Bears. Austin Schlottman has filled in well for Schmitz this year, and Marcus Mbow has played well for a rookie.
That said, Mbow does need to build strength, which could be a problem against the Bears’ larger defensive ends. Andrew Thomas should be able to hold the fort on the offensive left, which could allow the Giants to aid Schlottman and Mbow with double-teams or chip blocks.
The Giants’ offensive line isn’t as good at run blocking, but that could feature heavily in their game plan. As mentioned above, the Bears haven’t been stout against the run and have allowed 5.1 yards per carry. They’ve only allowed 6 rushing touchdowns, but the opportunity may be there for the Giants to lean on Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary to help out Schlottman and Mbow.
And while fans might not want to see Dart carrying the ball, the Giants could use the zone-read as a weapon to both pick up yardage on the ground as well as punish the Bears if they opt for man coverage. The Giants ran the ball relatively well against the 49ers, and the bears present an opportunity to lean into their run game in the absence of Skattebo.
Final thoughts
The Giants have been hit hard by injury on both offense and defense.
The Giants have remained able to put points on the board, but their defense has allowed their opponents to put up an absurd 11.7 points per quarter over the last 9 quarters. Even a healthy offense can’t score at that torrid pace, and the Giants’ depleted offense won’t be able to do so. But as I mentioned above, the Giants’ defense is beyond the scope of this piece.
If the Giants’ defense can hold the Bears’ offense in check and to their season average, there will be opportunities for the Giants’ own offense to score enough to win. It won’t be easy, and the Giants can’t afford mistakes, but the opportunities will be there.
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