Welcome to Week 10! The NFL season is at the halfway point, and the fantasy football regular season only has five more weeks. That was fast. Hopefully, you’ve still got a shot at the playoffs. I’ll try to help you get over the finish line.
Rant of the Week
New feature! I’ll preface this by saying I have zero shares of Jayden Daniels this season. Dan Quinn, what are you doing? The main concern with Daniels through the draft process last year was he exposed his smaller frame to way too many big hits. He managed to stay healthy as a rookie, but already missed a few games this season. The game was over. Why was he still under center with seven minutes left, down 31 points, and worse, scrambling and taking more hits? This isn’t Monday morning quarterbacking. This is common sense.
Stats of the Week:
- Sam Darnold in the first half Sunday night: 16-for-16 for 282 yards and 4 TDs.
- Darnold had a Total QBR of 97.8 on Sunday night. There have been four instances this season of a QB having a Total QBR of 97 or higher, and Darnold has three of them.
- The Packers did not punt on Sunday, yet scored just 13 points in their home loss to the Panthers.
- Jacksonville kicker Cam Little, who hit a 70-yard FG in the preseason, set the NFL record on Sunday with a 68-yard FG at Las Vegas. How long will it stand?
- There have been four field goals in NFL history of 65 yards or longer. All four came in the last five seasons.
- The Bengals are the first team since the 1966 Giants to lose consecutive games while scoring at least 38 points in both contests.
- Rico Dowdle is third in the NFL with 735 rushing yards, despite having just 28 carries across the Panthers’ first four games, when he served as a backup.
- Josh Allen is now the career leader in games with both a rushing TD and a passing TD (47).
- The Bills have won five straight regular season games against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs have won all four of the playoff battles between the teams in the 2020s.
- Chimere Dike has more kick return yards this season (1,108) than any player has rushing or receiving yards.
Fantasy Stat of the Week:
In his four starts with the Browns (Weeks 1-4), Joe Flacco averaged eight fantasy points per game (FPPG), which was second worst among starting QBs (Cam Ward, 7.7). In his four starts with the Bengals (Weeks 6-9), Flacco is averaging 25.4 FPPG, which is second best among all QBs (Justin Herbert (25.9)). “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”
Week 10, here we go!
Bye Weeks: CIN, DAL, KC, TEN
Week 10 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen or Jonathan Taylor. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade,and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers did quite well up and down the board in Week 9, led by Fade of the Week Alvin Kamara (0.2 fantasy points, RB66) and Sleeper of the Week Colston Loveland (26.8 fantasy points, TE2). You can check my work here: Week 9.
Ride of the Week: Emeka Egbuka (vs. NE). Did you see what Drake London did against the New England secondary last week? I did. The Patriots are a middle-of-the-road unit vs. receivers, and I expect Baker Mayfield to attack them early and often, and especially since you can’t run on the Pats. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all out, Egbuka is the clear #1 in a high-volume passing offense. I foresee double-digit targets for the rookie, who has been excellent from the jump.
Fade of the Week: Jordan Love (vs. PHI) is coming off a stinker against the Panthers, and it won’t get easier vs. the Eagles this week, and especially with his best receiving weapon lost for the season. Philadelphia has only allowed eight TD passes (tied for second fewest) in eight games, and their defense has had a week off to get healthier. They also added to their defense at the trade deadline. Maybe the Packers overlooked Carolina and they’ll come out looking like a contender this week, but Love is a sit for me regardless.
Sleeper of the Week: Tet McMillan (vs. NO). McMillan is ranked as the WR28 this week and that feels low, so I’ll jump on it. The Saints have been a neutral matchup for WRs, and the Panthers could just be content to run it down their throats all day. McMillan has been a bit of a disappointment all season, considering the high expectations after Carolina used a Top-10 pick on him in April. He has scored in just one game all season, and only has one game with more than six catches. The Panthers should have their way with the rebuilding Saints, and I like him to find paydirt this week.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, and Justin Herbert; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Jaxson Dart (@CHI). Dart continues to put up fantasy points aplenty, despite the limited weaponry around him. He’s scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in every one of his six starts and is the QB5 across that stretch. His rushing gives him a solid floor. The Bears have allowed the fourth most FPPG and second most TD passes (20) to opposing QBs. This is a good spot for the rookie to keep it going.
In the same game, I’ll keep rolling with Caleb Williams (vs. NYG), who has been up-and-down all season but went off last week and finished as the QB1, against the NFL’s worst defense. He gets another soft one this week, as the Giants have allowed the fifth most passing yards and seventh most FPPG to opposing QBs. Don’t touch that dial!
Matthew Stafford (@SF) is an auto-start for me at this point. Man, is he on a heater. He has already thrown more TD passes (21) than he did all of last season. No quarterback is playing better, and it doesn’t really matter the opponent. He has topped 25 fantasy points in four of his last five outings. He threw for 389 yards and three TDs against the 49ers in Week 5, and he should perform well once again against their banged-up defense.
Other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking: Jared Goff (@WAS), Baker Mayfield (vs. NE), Daniel Jones to bounce back (vs. ATL, Germany), and Sam Darnold (vs. ARI).
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the QBs who is injured or on a Bye, the options this week aren’t all that good. I think the best choices are J.J. McCarthy (vs. BAL), Bryce Young (vs. NO), Marcus Mariota (vs. DET), and Michael Penix, Jr. (@IND).
Fades:
Trevor Lawrence (@HOU) has the single toughest draw you can get this week, and he’s potentially down multiple receivers to boot. Jakobi Meyers might help with that shortage, but he’s brand new to the offense. The Texans have allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and just eight passing TDs on the season.
Aaron Rodgers (@LAC) has a tough draw this week, and I don’t expect big numbers from him. The Chargers have allowed the third fewest passing yards per game and the second fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and they’re another team that has allowed just eight passing TDs on the season.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d avoid in Superflex this week, include Justin Fields (vs. CLE), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BUF), and Geno Smith (@DEN). These are all decidedly bad matchups against strong defenses. The Broncos have allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and just eight passing TDs on the season. The Bills have allowed a league-low seven TD passes on the season, and the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs. They just held Patrick Mahomes without a TD pass, and he came into that game tied for the league lead.
Running back:
Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Devon Achane (vs. BUF). The Bills held Achane in check in the first meeting between the teams, although he did have close to 100 total yards and seven receptions. Achane has been steady all season, considering the chaos and dysfunction around him. Chalk that up to immense talent and occasional inventive play-calling. The Bills have been generous to opposing RBs. They’ve allowed the seventh most FPPG and second most rushing TDs (10) to the position. Start Achane with a good degree of confidence, as you normally would.
Rico Dowdle (vs. NO). Dave Canales was true to his word, and Dowdle dominated Carolina’s RB snaps and touches in Week 9. The Packers came in as the stingiest run defense in the league and Dowdle walked into Lambeau and ripped them up to the tune of 25-130-2. He’s been a monster in all three of his starts, and this week he gets the Saints. They’ve allowed the tenth most FPPG to opposing RBs and have been especially generous to RBs on the road. they’re also firmly in “next year” mode. Dowdle was in the running for my Ride of the Week. Note that he opened the week with a DNP (quad), so monitor his status.
If D’Andre Swift (vs. NYG) is back, I think he and Kyle Monangai are both strong plays against a Giants’ defense that’s had no answer for the run all season, and just got mauled by a 49ers’ rushing attack that has struggled all year. New York has allowed the second most rushing yards and third most FPPG to opposing RBs. If Swift is out, Monangai is an easy Top-10 play this week. Note that both backs opened the week with limited practice sessions, so this is another situation to monitor.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are Kyren Williams (@SF), Quinshon Judkins (@NYJ, if he plays), J.K. Dobbins (vs. LV), and David Montgomery (@WAS).
Sleepers:
If Aaron Jones (vs. BAL) is able to suit up this week, I like him against Baltimore. He was dominating the work and running well against a tough Lions’ front seven, before he hurt his shoulder. If he can’t go, then Jordan Mason is in play. The Ravens’ defensive statistics are pretty misleading, as they’ve been much tougher across the board over their last three games, as injured stars have returned.
Other RBs ranked outside the Top-25 who I think are potential lineup fills if you need them this week: Zach Charbonnet (vs. ARI), Woody Marks (vs. JAC), Chuba Hubbard (vs. NO, because he could see some garbage time run, plus Dowdle is nirsing an injury), Devin Singletary (@CHI), Ray Davis (@MIA, and especially if James Cook is out or limited), and I’ll run back a longshot sleeper call that hit last week, Emari Demercado (@SEA).
Fades:
Is the run over for Kimani Vidal (vs. PIT)? He fell flat on his face in a favorable matchup against the Titans last week, and is in danger of losing carries to Jaret Patterson, who was the more effective back in Week 9. Omarion Hampton isn’t returning any time soon, so Vidal is still a valuable hold. I’m just nervous about his inefficiency in two of the last three games, and the loss of OT Joe Alt doesn’t help things.
“Bill” Merritt (vs. DET) and Alvin Kamara (@CAR) have become auto-fades for me, and it’s been hitting week after week. Either one could have a good game at any time, but if they’ve been in your lineup the last month, they’ve been hurting you, not helping you. I’d keep sitting them.
If Bucky Irving (vs. NE) returns this week, I wouldn’t rush to get him back into your lineup. He might be eased in, and the Patriots have been a brick wall all season. They haven’t allowed a running back to reach 50 yards rushing, which is why I warned you about Bijan Robinson last week. More bad news: They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards and second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, and just three total TDs to the position. I’ll fade Rachaad White too, regardless of Irving’s availability.
Other Fades (of RBs who’ve been regular starting options): Ashton Jeanty (@DEN) and Nick Chubb (vs. JAC).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Davante Adams (@SF). I was extremely high on Adams this preseason and so far, that’s been one of my best takes. He’s been a red zone beast throughout his career, but this year might take the cake. He leads the NFL in targets inside each of the 20, 10, and 5-yard lines, leads the NFL in TD catches (8), and Matt Stafford can make every throw you’d want in the red area. Adams didn’t score in the first matchup against the Niners but had a solid game. Ka-boom.
Stick with D.J. Moore (vs. NYG) against the Giants, who are missing multiple starting D-backs and have been victimized by alpha receivers all year. Moore seems to have re-taken the mantle as the Bears #1 from Rome Odunze, and he should do well against a defense that’s allowing the fourth most receiving yards and seventh most FPPG to opposing WRs.
Marvin Harrison, Jr. (@SEA) has a tough matchup, but I’m banking on Jacoby Brissett getting another start. He clearly looks for Harrison in a way Kyler Murray doesn’t. Arizona will probably be chasing points and that bodes well for the second-year pro.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-25 this week who have favorable matchups, and/or who I’m just high on for the week include Courtland Sutton (vs. LV), Michael Pittman, Jr. (vs. ATL), and Ladd McConkey (vs. PIT).
Sleepers:
I like Wan’Dale Robinson (@CHI) against a Bears team that has allowed the second most FPPG and TD catches (13) to opposing WRs.
Did you see what Tory Horton did against the Commanders on Sunday night? I think a big play or two awaits for speedster Jameson Williams (@WAS), against a defense that has allowed the second most receiving yards and third most FPPG to opposing WRs. Washington’s season has detonated and I think the Lions will roll up the points.
Other WRs ranked outside the top-25 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Khalil Shakir (@MIA), Alec Pierce (vs. ATL, Germany), Troy Franklin (vs. LV), Tez Johnson (vs. NE), Darius Slayton (@CHI), and Olamide Zaccheaus (vs. NYG).
Fades:
Keenan Allen (vs. PIT) has seen his snap rate drop dramatically in the last two weeks, to below 40% in both games. Rookie Tre Harris has actually out-snapped him in these contests. The result has been just five targets in back-to-back games after Allen saw at least seven in every game before that. I’m not sure what’s going on here, and if this is a blip or a new reality, but that usage coupled with the emergence of Oronde Gadsden II makes Allen hard to trust this week.
D.K. Metcalf (@LAC) is tough to sit, and as always, I’d only consider that if you have other worthy options. But I don’t like the matchup, or the usage. Metcalf hasn’t topped five catches in a game all season and hasn’t gone over 55 yards in his last three outings. The Chargers have allowed the third fewest FPPG and second fewest TD catches (4) to opposing WRs. This could be another frustrating day for those counting on Metcalf to be their WR1 or 2.
Chris Olave (@CAR) has been a frequent Fade for me, and even with Rashid Shaheed traded, I’m leery. He should see volume, but I don’t want to start any Saints at the moment, full stop. The Panthers are an ascending defense and a tough matchup, as they’ve allowed the sixth fewest FPPG and just five receiving TDs to the position.
Speaking of Shaheed (vs. ARI), I’m not looking to start him or Jakobi Meyers (@HOU), as both are new to their offenses and aren’t likely to get a full complement of snaps and routes. Wait a week.
I’ll once again put a Fade on all of the Green Bay (vs. PHI) receivers, for all the reasons I discussed when I faded them last week. It hit, and I think it’s going to hit again in another difficult matchup and despite the condensed target tree.
I’m not starting any Texans’ WRs (vs. JAC) besides Nico Collins (who is at best a WR2 this week), and especially with Davis Mills likely starting. It’s a crowded WR room.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Garrett Wilson (vS. CLE) and DeVonta Smith (@GB).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, and Brock Bowers. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Kyle Pitts (@IND, Germany) has seen decent volume this season, but a lack of TDs has capped his upside. I like his chances to fill up the stat sheet against the Colts, who have allowed the second most yards and third most FPPG to opposing TEs. Atlanta will be chasing points, and I’m guessing the Colts will focus plenty of attention on Drake London, perhaps with new acquisition Sauce Gardner involved.
Ordonde Gadsden, II (vs. PIT). Justin Herbert leads the NFL in pass attempts, and plenty of that volume has targeted the rookie tight end, who is making his case for Waiver Wire add of the year. Gadsden has at least five catches and 65 receiving yards in four straight contests. The Steelers have given up the second most FPPG and TD catches (6) to opposing tight ends.
Other TEs in the Top-12 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Dallas Goedert (@GB), Sam LaPorta (@WAS), Colston Loveland (vs. NYG), and Harold Fannin, Jr. (@NYJ).
Sleepers:
Mark Andrews (@MIN) is ranked as the TE15 this week. That’s too low for a guy who is such a persistent red zone threat. He isn’t getting the kind of volume he used to see, and two other TEs are involved more than you’d like, but he’s still a legit threat to score every time the Ravens cross the 20.
Andrews isn’t a true sleeper, though, despite his ranking. If your starter is on a Bye or you’re otherwise in need, here are other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 this week that I think are worthy of consideration: Theo Johnson (@CHI), Cade Otton (vs. NE), and Dalton Schultz (vs. JAC and especially if C.J. Stroud can suit up; Jacksonville has been awful at defending the position).
Fades:
I know he scored last week, and maybe the QB change is what he needed, but T.J. Hockenson (vs. BAL) is still a weekly fade for me unless and until the volume increases. He only caught two passes for 11 yards against the Lions, and on the season he only has 29 grabs, and has yet to top 50 yards in a game. Pass.
Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth (@LAC) are each tough starts on a weekly basis, as they’re eating into each other’s chances to produce. This week’s matchup is a bad one (fifth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing TEs).
Opportunity knocks for Luke Musgrave (vs. PHI), but he doesn’t have the YAC ability of Tucker Kraft, and I don’t see him as an auto-start fill-in, despite the potential upside. I’d wait a week to see how he’s used. The Eagles are also a bad matchup (third fewest FPPG and receiving yards and just one TD allowed to opposing TEs).
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12 for the week): See my Week 10 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 10!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
See More:
