It’s no secret that throughout his career, Matthew Stafford has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL. Despite throwing for over 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in 2011, Stafford wasn’t voted to the Pro Bowl. Stafford has been voted to just one Pro Bowl with the Rams and it didn’t come in 2021 when he threw for 4,800 yards and 40 touchdowns.
While playing in Los Angeles has certainly helped Stafford’s legacy, he is still consistently underrated. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Stafford isn’t getting talked about by the national media. Much of the national media has mentioned how Stafford should be in the MVP conversation. However, Stafford shouldn’t just be in the conversation, but leading it.
Instead, Stafford remains fourth in MVP odds at +500 behind Drake Maye (+450), Patrick Mahomes (+350) and Josh Allen (+160). That is despite Stafford leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 21 and only throwing two interceptions. His passer rating of 113.2 is sixth, and among the MVP contenders, trails only Maye. Stafford trails all three in EPA per dropback.
| Matthew Stafford | Josh Allen | Patrick Mahomes | Drake Maye | |
| EPA/DB | 0.17 (8th) | 0.2 (5th) | 0.19 (6th) | 0.22 (3rd) |
| Passer Rating | 113.2 (6th) | 107.0 (8th) | 98.2 (13th) | 116.9 (2nd) |
| Passing Success % | 52.5% (6th) | 52.5% (5th) | 53.5% (4th) | 53.1% (5th) |
| QBR | 66.5 (10th) | 64.9 (11th) | 74.4 (4th) | 74 (5th) |
| DVOA | 31.6% (2nd) | 16.1% (9th) | 13.4% (10th) | 20.5% (7th) |
| DYAR | 855 (1st) | 441 (10th) | 547 (7th) | 592 (5th) |
| PFF Grade | 91.7 (2nd) | 87.9 (4th) | 76.4 (10th) | 84.5 (6th) |
| CPOE | 2.9% (12th) | 2.4% (13th) | -1.6% (24th) | 9.6% (1st) |
| Big Time Throw % | 7.1% (2nd) | 4.1% (15th) | 4.5% (12th) | 5.2% (6th) |
| Hero Throw % | 8.0% (1st) | 1.8% (28th) | 3.2% (23rd) | 5.1% (7th) |
| Avg. Ranking | 5 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 4.7 |
This really should be a neck-and-neck race between Stafford and Maye, but Mahomes and Allen are the flashier names and therefore leading the conversation. Meanwhile, the Bills and Allen have lost to Maye while the Chiefs are 5-4 and third in the AFC West. Stafford and the Rams are tied for first in the best division in the NFL.
ESPN recently put out their midseason awards. Leading the MVP conversation, Bill Barnwell had Patrick Mahomes. Said Barnwell,
“Stafford has missed a few more throws than his reputation would suggest, especially in the win over the Ravens…An overthrow to Nacua with 19 seconds left in the first half against the Eagles might have cost the Rams a shot at the end zone and a potential touchdown…There’s not much separating the great QBs at the top of the league right now. And this is just enough to push me toward a familiar option…This isn’t a statistically stunning season for Mahomes… And the Chiefs are 5-4, so it’s not like we can even point to Mahomes pulling out a series of close games like he did in 2024…When you consider the burden they have to bear within the offense and the help (or lack thereof) they’ve had in 2025, though, Mahomes is very narrowly the best of the bunch.”
The takeaway there seems to be that for Stafford to win the MVP, he needs to be nothing less than perfect, because the slightest miss is going to get critiqued. Additionally, the glaze for Patrick Mahomes isn’t going anywhere. The Chiefs are 5-4 and not in the playoff picture, and Mahomes is still considered the MVP. The MVP award has seemingly gone from a ‘QB only’ award to a ‘select QBs only’ award. The last non-top tier quarterback to win MVP was Matt Ryan in 2016.
It doesn’t just stop at Barnwell. In The Athletic’s Week 10 quarterback rankings, Stafford came in fifth behind Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. In that piece, one NFL executive said, “He’s one of the most underrated QBs ever. He’s always been excellent.”
While Stafford came in fifth in Howe’s rankings, he did gain some praise. Said Howe,
“He’s on track to deliver a regular season comparable to his career year in 2021 with a completely different cast around him, and the Rams appear ready to contend for another Super Bowl. That can’t be overlooked in the MVP race.”
On the Football 301 Podcast, Nate Tice and Robert Mays discussed their midseason awards. Both Tice and Mays defended Drake Maye as the MVP. Again, Maye is at least more understandable than Allen or Mahomes. The Patriots are 7-2 and Maye is playing at an extremely high level. At the same time, it underscores the point that Stafford isn’t the young, flashy, exciting option and therefore put on the back-burner.
It’s not that a 37-year-old quarterback can’t win MVP. Tom Brady won the award at 40 while Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers both won at 37. However, the last non-mainstream quarterback to win the award at that age was Rich Gannon in 2002.
The Rams’ schedule does get more difficult over the second half of the season. With five division games on deck and NFC matchups against contenders such as the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford should have an opportunity to insert himself as the front-runner. However, anything less than perfect and 2025 may go down as another Stafford season that wasn’t recognized properly.
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