If the Los Angeles Rams lose to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10, it won’t matter if they have almost the same record and eight games left on the schedule. If the Rams lose, their 0-2 division and 1-3 conference records will look like chump change next to 4-0 and 7-1 on San Francisco’s end.
This is not a must-win game for L.A., but it’s probably a “gotta win” if the Rams don’t want an impossible task to catch up to the other two NFC West teams over the rest of the season. The Niners have lost player after player to injuries and as they start to get healthier and more confident by beating bad teams like the Giants and Falcons, San Francisco could still win the NFL’s toughest division in spite of everything that’s gone wrong.
Sean McVay has lost 10 of his last 13 regular season games against Kyle Shanahan. Now would be a really bad time to lose #11.
4 weeks into the season, confidence in the Rams was running high as they were 9-point favorites in a 3-1 vs. 3-1 Thursday night matchup against the 49ers sans Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, and other key players who were injured.
Midway through the third quarter of a game, the 49ers were up 20-7.
After Josh Karty kicked a field goal to send it to overtime, then Eddy Pineiro gave San Francisco a 26-23 lead with 5:51 on the clock, McVay elected to go for the win rather than tie and hope that his defense (which had not allowed the 49ers in the end zone since San Francisco’s second drive of the game) could give Karty one more shot to win it.
Instead, the offense and Kyren Williams could not pick up the first down and the 49ers won another NFC/division game. A look at the current standings shows that the Rams are ahead of the 49ers and have a much better point differential but they have also played one fewer game. If the NFC West comes down to a two-way tiebreaker and head-to-head is even, the next tiebreakers are division record and conference record. The 49ers are 6-1 and the Rams are 1-2 against the NFC:
If the Rams lose this game, they will allow the 49ers to be 4-0 against the NFC West with a chance to be 5-0 if they beat the Cardinals in Week 11.
The only other team in the league that is 3-0 against their division is the L.A. Chargers. The only other team to win six conference games is the Indianapolis Colts. It doesn’t matter how many injuries they’ve suffered or how close their games have been or who they have defeated, the San Francisco 49ers are in a relatively dominant position if they beat the Rams.
7-3 overall, 4-0 division, 7-1 NFC.
Oh and by the way, look at San Francisco’s upcoming schedule:
With games against the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, and Titans on deck, the 49ers could be 11-3 going into their Monday Night Football game against the Colts. That is IF the Rams allow them to win this Sunday.
The Panthers and Chicago Bears both have five wins but are certainly beatable by San Francisco’s standards.
Are you confident that if the Rams lose this week and fall to 6-3 that they can not just finish with the same record as San Francisco, but win one more game than the Niners given that they would be down 0-2 in the head-to-head?
L.A.’s upcoming schedule features four games against three potential division winners:
If the Rams do lose this game, there’s a zero-percent chance that they finish the season with a better division record against the 49ers. And maybe a 2-percent chance that they can finish with a better conference record.
Feeling like this won’t be a problem to beat the 49ers? The Rams were 9-point favorites the last time they faced the 49ers!
For what it’s worth, ESPN projects the Rams with a 37% chance to win the division, ahead of the 49ers at 35% and the Seahawks at 28%. All three teams are better than 80% to make the playoffs:
But that’s before Week 10’s game.
If the Rams beat the 49ers, chances of winning the NFC West and finishing ahead of the 49ers go up dramatically. They’ll be 7-2 and 2-2 in the division, handing a second conference loss to the 49ers.
And that’s really what the Rams need — or gotta — have happen. This is the start of the playoffs to get to the playoffs.
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