Just hours before the trade deadline, Chris Ballard and the Indianapolis Colts made a blockbuster trade for Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, star cornerback of the New York Jets.
Gardner, just 25 and already one of the league’s premier cover men, brings elite length, physicality at the line, and the kind of confidence that shrinks throwing windows before the ball even leaves the quarterback’s hand.
For the Colts, this does two big things right away: it lets them play more aggressive coverage on early downs, and it gives them a matchup answer for the AFC’s potent passing attacks, namely the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens. Pairing Gardner with an improving pass rush should help the defense get off the field more consistently and take pressure off the offense.
While the Colts acquire a great player, they also acquire a hefty long-term contract and lose 2 first round picks.
As you can see, the Colts are on the books for a cheap deal for 2025 and 2026, but once 2027 hits and especially in 2028 and 2029, the contract explodes to a much higher number. As mentioned in the X post, there’s $70 million effectively guaranteed through 2028 so the Colts won’t be able to move the contract before then.
That structure isn’t a one-off. Chris Ballard has leaned on lighter early cap hits and heavier money in the out years, which is fine when your roster is young and cheap. It becomes harder when those later years line up with extensions for your own players.
The Colts have one of the best overall football rosters in the league this season, but after this season is over, they have 2 major free agents and a few other non-major ones:
- Daniel Jones
- Alec Pierce
The rest include Nick Cross, Kwity Paye, Braden Smith, Tyquan Lewis.
I wrote about the Jones deal last week and that could go a few different ways, but at the very least, he’s looking at a contract worth at least 40something million per year.
Alec Pierce has had a big start to the year and is one of the best deep threats in the entire NFL. Similar players have received contracts for anywhere between $15 million and $20 million per year. He should look to get a contract of at least $15 million.
The remaining players are not must keeps but let’s budget $20 million for some of those players and others who weren’t listed.
So if you account for Jones making $40 million in 2026, plus Pierce making $15 million in 2026 and keeping $20 million leftover for the rest, that’s $75 million that needs to be saved for those players just for next year.
And that’s before Sauce’s number jumps two years later. In other words, the Colts are already earmarking a big chunk of future cap just to keep their current group together, and the expensive years of the Gardner deal are waiting right behind that.
Why 3 years?
Because 2027–28 is when everything converges — the veterans start aging out, the backloaded deals get expensive, and the cheap years of Sauce’s contract are gone. When the 2028 season begins in September 2028, the following players will be over 33 years old:
- DeForest Buckner – 34 years old
- Kenny Moore – 33 years old
- Grover Stewart – 35 years old
- Zaire Franklin – 32 years old
- Michael Pittman Jr – 31 years old
- Jonathan Taylor – 29 years old
- Braden Smith – 32 years old
All of those players will be at ages where production at their positions tend to decline. Not all of them are even signed through the 2028 season either way. In an article I wrote in the offseason, I projected how many seasons Jonathan Taylor would have left, using the “running back wall” as a guideline. The final projection was that he had at least 3 more quality seasons in him and anything after that would be a real question mark. That 3 season projection included this current season. The remaining players, if they’re even on the roster in 2028, should probably not be heavily relied upon at their ages.
The problem isn’t just that they’ll be older — it’s that some of them will be older and on second or third contracts. Paying for past peak years at the same time you’re trying to keep a contender together is what tightens the window.
So if the core of the team will be aging and without contracts, where can the Colts look to? That leaves them with 7 big names that will have to carry the team at that time:
- Daniel Jones
- Sauce Gardner
- Tyler Warren
- Quenton Nelson
- Bernhard Raimann
- Cam Bynum
- Laiatu Latu
That’s a good nucleus, but probably not enough on its own to win a championship, so the Colts will need to replenish with a lot of young talent in the next couple of years. They will, however, have to replenish without two first-round picks — and that matters more for this version of the Colts than it would for most teams. When your money is pushed to the later years and your veterans are aging out, the easiest way to keep the talent level high is to drop in cheap, first-round starters. Indy just gave up two of those chances.
Depending on what they do with the aging stars listed above, they may have to dip into free agency, but with those players on the books for large contracts or projected large contracts, they will likely be more limited in what they can spend, so the pressure is really on for the scouting department to find quality players on day 2 and 3.
The Colts were already building toward a defined contention window. Their core veterans are in or approaching their primes now, but by 2027–28 a lot of the guys who make this roster so complete — Buckner, Grover Stewart, Kenny Moore, Zaire Franklin, even Jonathan Taylor from an age/usage standpoint — will either be expensive, older for their positions, or off the books. That alone suggested a roughly three-year push.
What the Sauce Gardner trade does is make that timeline official.
Because Gardner is cheap in 2025 and 2026, the move makes perfect sense for a team that’s trying to win right now. Pair him with an improving pass rush and the Colts absolutely look like a real AFC contender — adding a true No. 1 corner is the kind of move teams make when they think they’re in the tier with Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, etc. And they should think that.
But the cost of getting a 25-year-old All-Pro is that his money spikes right when everything else spikes. You’re likely paying Daniel Jones $40M+ per year, Alec Pierce is due for a real deal, you still need about $20M for your “keep the roster together” guys, and then in 2027–28 Sauce’s number jumps and there’s $70M effectively guaranteed through 2028. That, combined with Ballard’s trend of backloading, plus the loss of two first-round picks that could’ve been cheap starters, puts a hard cap on how long this specific version of the Colts can stay together. You don’t make that kind of move if you think you’re still two or three years away. The Colts basically announced that they believe they’re in the AFC mix right now, and they’re willing to let the back end of the window be tighter if it makes the front end stronger.
So the takeaway isn’t “the Colts made a mistake.” It’s: “the Colts just told on themselves — they think they can win the Super Bowl in the next three years, and they’re willing to lock in that window to do it.”
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