This past week of the college football season was uneventful, from a quarterback perspective, to say the least. Ty Simpson and Dante Moore were on a bye week while Fernando Mendoza was on a virtual bye as Indiana played Maryland. The most notable performances were Arch Manning finding his groove and Carson Beck reminding everybody why he’s probably not a first-round pick.
With it being a lighter quarterback week in the college football landscape, I figured it would be a good time to take a step back and look at each quarterback’s seasons as a whole. We can get so focused on watching these players in one-game samples and lose sight of the bigger picture.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama
One of the biggest concerns with Ty Simpson right now is his lack of experience. He has just 311 career passing attempts and eight career starts. If you follow the Bill Parcells set of quarterback criteria, a player should be a three-year starter and have started at least 30 games. While former first-round picks such as Anthony Richardson had just one year of starting experience, he was always more of a project. The vision with Simpson is much more clear and he’s the obvious best fit for a Sean McVay offense.
Simpson has consistently been one of the best quarterbacks this season under pressure. His pocket movement, ability to remain calm, and make NFL-level throws pop on tape every single week. This isn’t a quarterback simply throwing to a spot. He manipulates defenders with his eyes and has the ability to create outside of structure. Simpson waited his turn at Alabama and has won his last seven games since falling at Florida State in his first career start.
2. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
There hasn’t been a quarterback that has risen over the last month as much as Fernando Mendoza. Indiana hasn’t played the most daunting of schedules, but he outplayed Dante Moore against Oregon and was very good in the win last week against UCLA.
The arm talent and athleticism is clearly there with Mendoza. He’s shown the ability to make plays outside the pocket and as a runner. While Mendoza showed flashes at Cal, it is worth wondering how much of his success is also Frank Cignetti. Cignetti has called one of the best offenses in college football the last two seasons. That isn’t to say that Cignetti is the sole reason for Mendoza’s success, but it’s part of his situation which is certainly a benefit. Still, if Mendoza continues to make the NFL-level throws and show high-level accuracy and placement, he’ll be the consensus QB1.
3. Cole Payton, North Dakota State
It’s not going to be long before more people start talking about Cole Payton from North Dakota State. Payton was very good in North Dakota State’s win against No. 2 South Dakota State two weeks ago. He continued that against Youngstown State on Saturday. It’s very possible that the Bison roll to another National Championship, but Payton’s next big test won’t come until the FCS playoffs.
If Mendoza did some of the things that Payton is doing, the draft experts would be going crazy. Payton has been one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in college football this season. He still on the raw side with only one year of starting experience, but the traits are there. This is someone that can be developed behind Matthew Stafford.
4. Dante Moore, Oregon
Moore hasn’t impressed since Oregon beat Penn State. He had one touchdown and two interceptions in the loss against Indiana. He’ll have a chance to prove himself further over the next few weeks. Oregon finishes the season against ranked USC and Washington.
There’s no questioning Moore’s athleticism and his arm strength. He has the ability to throw darts on the move. While he can run, it’s not the primary focus of his game which bodes well for a McVay style offense. After a week off, I’ll be interested to see how Moore continues to improve over the final month of the regular season.
5. Arch Manning, Texas
It was easy to give up on Arch Manning after the first six weeks of the college football season. There were times where he simply didn’t look right. His throwing motion was off and he wasn’t processing what he was seeing. Multiple things can be true with Manning. It was always odd that he was the consensus QB1 coming into the season given his lack of experience. Because of that, he probably needs to return to Texas for another year.
At the same time, he was always still talented and likely to improve with experience. The answer was always something in the middle. That’s been shown over the last two games. In two weeks, Texas travels to Athens to play Georgia. If Manning can lead Texas to a win or simply play well on the road in that environment, his draft stock could skyrocket.
6. Carson Beck, Miami
Carson Beck seems to have the Kirk Cousins gene in him. At some point, with the game on the line when it matters most, Carson Beck is going to make a mental error. This season, Miami had a roster good enough to win a national championship. All Beck had to do was direct the ship. However, much like the captain of the Titanic, Beck hit a giant iceberg.
Beck threw four interceptions in a loss to Louisville and two more this past week against SMU. His interception in overtime against SMU came from a clean pocket and he simply makes a bad decision. Beck is likely a second round quarterback and a fringe NFL starter. However, after a strong start to the year, Beck has come back down to where he started the season.
7. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
It’s easy to look at what Garrett Nussmeier has done this season and count him out. Much like the Manning conversation, Nussmeier may not have ever been good or consistent enough to be in the QB1 conversation. At the same time, he is better than what he’s currently showing. The LSU offensive line has not been very good this year. This is a team that just fired its head coach. Nussmeier was also managing an injury early in the season.
If you were to put Nussmeier in Beck’s situation, Miami may still be undefeated. Situations matter for quarterbacks and it can be hard to separate the two. Nussmeier is probably in the same tier as Beck right now and a second-round pick. He hasn’t played well this year, but there are still things to like.
8. John Mateer, Oklahoma
It feels like we were robbed of a special season from John Mateer after he injured his hand. He began to look more like his old self against Tennessee this past Saturday. Mateer scampered for a 21-yard run on 3rd-and-16 to convert. Still, he’s probably solidified himself as a borderline top-50 pick and a likely third-round selection in April. There are limitations in his game and it’s worth wondering if he can hold up to the physicality in the NFL given his smaller frame and play style.
The next three games are big for Mateer and Oklahoma. Following a bye week, they play at Alabama before finishing the year against Mizzou and LSU at home. There is still time for Mateer to rise and a bye week should allow him to continue to get healthy.
9. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
When it comes to a player like Sellers, there are a lot of layers. Coming into the season, there were a lot of eyes on him to see how much growth he made as a quarterback. He’s been inconsistent to say the least, but his situation has also been less than ideal. The South Carolina offensive line has been terrible and his wide receivers have let him down at times. Additionally, his offensive coordinator was just fired. He has had one of the worst supporting casts in college football.
Sellers does handle some of the pre-snap operation which you like to see and the athleticism and arm talent are clearly there. He has the ability to do some otherworldly things at the quarterback position. At the same time, he isn’t consistent as a processor and can take some ill-timed sacks trying to make things happen. Returning to school might be the best thing for him. The Richardson comparison isn’t a fair one as Sellers is much more accurate. He simply needs to show some consistency.
10. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
Pavia isn’t what the Rams need at quarterback behind Stafford, but it’s hard to deny what he’s doing this year. He’s been a fun player to watch. With that said, he’s 24 years old with a limited ceiling and will be 25 right after the draft. The Rams already have that in Stetson Bennett. He should still have a chance to win the Heisman. He threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against Texas while adding 43 yards and a touchdown on the ground. It is worth noting that most of that production came in the fourth quarter in garbage time.
Simply put, Pavia is the type of player that makes college football fun to watch. What he’s doing at Vanderbilt of all schools can’t go unnoticed. He is a good college quarterback. It’s just hard to see him translate to the NFL.
Honorable Mention: Jayden Maiava, USC
Maiava should rise over the final month of the college football season. He led an impressive comeback against a solid Nebraska team on Saturday after throwing two interceptions early in the game. Maiava may be one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football.
Who to Watch This Week
- Northwestern @ USC: 11/7, 9 p.m. – Jayden Maiava
- Indiana @ Penn State: 11/8, 12 p.m. – Fernando Mendoza
- Oregon @ Iowa: 11/8, 3:30 p.m. – Dante Moore
- Syracuse @ Miami: 11/8, 3:30 p.m. – Carson Beck
- Auburn @ Vanderbilt: 11/8, 4 p.m. – Diego Pavia
- Florida State @ Clemson: 11/8, 7 p.m. – Cade Klubnik
- LSU @ Alabama: 11/8, 7:30 p.m. – Ty Simpson & Garrett Nussmeier
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