The Minnesota Vikings approach the midpoint of their season with the most impressive and unlikely win of the season at Detroit to get back to .500 at 4-4. They are also 2-0 in division games and a game and a half out of first place in the NFC North. Considering all the injuries and poor start to the season generally, the Vikings could be in a much worse position at this point in the season. And for most teams being down their starting quarterback and multiple starting offensive linemen for five of the first eight games, it would be.
But the Vikings have managed to make it through an at times ugly, frustrating, and mistake-filled first-half of the season still in playoff and even division title contention. The win at Detroit was a pivotal one in many ways. First, it showed a glimpse of what this Vikings team can be when healthy. It wasn’t a flawless performance by any means- far from it- but it was a reminder that the Vikings have the roster to compete and beat any team in the league. J.J. McCarthy was far from perfect as well, but he managed to do enough in key situations to get the win, just as he did in his first start at Chicago. In an odd coincidence, he had the exact same stat line in both games: 14/25 for 143 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD. And the Vikings won both road games by the exact same score- 27-24.
Knocking off the two-time division champs in their house, something Kevin O’Connell has never done before, was also a confidence boost who knew the importance of this game in turning their season around. The Vikings’ team captains hosted a call with players the night before the Lions game which highlighted the importance of the game after a miserable and embarrassing performance on Thursday Night Football the week before against a mediocre Chargers team. The Vikings lost both games to the Lions last season, but remain undefeated in division matchups so far this season.
The Lions game was also significant in being the first time the Vikings starting offense and defense, with the exception of Ryan Kelly, was healthy this season. Equally important, it appeared the Vikings escaped without any major injuries in that game (although Aaron Jones had an AC joint injury but said he didn’t expect to miss any games). That sets the Vikings up to be competitive in what remains a tough second-half schedule. They face the equally desperate Baltimore Ravens next week at U.S. Bank Stadium, who are also healthy again and coming off a mini bye week. The Bears rematch game follows at home and then two tough road games at Green Bay and Seattle. Three games against the NFC East follow- the Commanders, at Dallas and at New York. The season ends with home games against the Lions and Packers. The Vikings can afford to lose three of their remaining nine games and still have a reasonable chance to make the playoffs. That’s a tall order with that schedule.
State of the NFC North
If the Vikings to have any chance of winning the division, they’ll need to fare very well in their remaining division games. And they could. Betting markets don’t give the Vikings much of a chance of winning the NFC North despite their road win in Detroit, but one thing that could be a factor – as it always is – is injuries.
The Packers currently lead the division by a half game over the Lions and Bears, but just lost a key weapon for the season in tight end Tucker Kraft. Kraft has been the go-to receiver for Jordan Love this season and was having a break-out, if not All-Pro season before suffering what is believed to be a torn ACL. The Packers have been inconsistent in that they have some impressive wins and some eyebrow raising losses, including to the Panthers on Sunday at home. The Packers count on a big play offense to carry them and when the big plays aren’t there, they have a hard time scoring points.
The Lions also have some injury issues on defense, but they suffered a key injury on offense as starting guard Christian Mahagony suffered a leg injury that is expected to keep him out for a couple months. The Lions offense line sustained a few other lesser injuries to Tate Ratledge, Penei Sewell, and Taylor Decker that are monitoring. The Lions lost two All-Pro caliber linemen in Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zietler this offseason, and a weaker offensive line is a key reason the Lions aren’t quite as dominant offensively this season as last. Jared Goff has faced more pressure this season and the explosive runs are fewer. Sustaining more injuries to their offensive line this season could cause the Lions to struggle more than expected the rest of the season. And the Lions still have a number of tough matchups in the second half of their schedule.
The Bears have been hit with injuries to their defensive secondary this season but have showed some positive momentum so far this season. But their schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season than it was in the first half. The Bears are 5-3 but have given up 24 or more points in all but two games this season, despite facing only one team with a winning record, which puts a lot of pressure on their offensive to deliver.
So, despite the Vikings poor start to the season, they still have a shot at the division crown trailing by a game and a half, despite having a starting quarterback who still has only three NFL starts and a tough remaining schedule. Staying healthy will be key. But so too will be maintaining the intensity and physicality they showed against the Lions. The Vikings still have a lot to improve. They’ve only won the turnover battle once in eight contests. They still struggle with penalties and execution miscues too. But a healthier team with more starters out there consistently could begin to gel and minimize the mistakes and begin to make more plays.
Can the Vikings Go On a Run?
In the Vikings four wins this season, they’ve had an average of just 171 net passing yards. At some point with the offensive weaponry they have, that should improve as McCarthy gets more comfortable in running the offense and he begins to develop more of a rapport with his receivers. The Vikings have depended on the run game in each of their victories, rushing for over 100 yards in three of them and 97 in the win over the Browns. They’ll need to keep that up to help their young quarterback and put him in more favorable game situations. But Justin Jefferson had been relatively quiet so far this season, with only two game with over his per game average in receiving yards. Same for Jordan Addison who missed three games with a suspension. T. J. Hockenson has been a virtual no-show this season, although he has been asked to block a lot more than usual. Jalen Nailor has had a few key catches, but also goes long stretches without a reception. If the Vikings can be more consistent in pass protection now that they have four of five starters out there, that should lead to more in the passing game.
Defensively, the Vikings have been dominant in stretches, as they were against the Lions, but also have stretches where they give up big plays in pass defense or just can’t seem to stop the run. They’ve been good on possession downs but could be even better given some of the third-and-longs and fourth down conversions they’ve allowed. Their biggest strength so far has been in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 50% of attempts, which has kept them in games. Getting Andrew Van Ginkel back and sending a message to Javon Hargrave, who seems to have responded, in the form of lower snap counts should help the Vikings defense realize more of the potential the front seven looked to have at the beginning of the season.
Special teams have helped in a few Vikings victories this season, but they’ve got to end the penalties in the return game. It’s not just that they’ve eliminated some nice returns from Myles Price, who is a welcome addition this season, but they often put the Vikings in poor field position.
But overall the key to whether the Vikings can go on a run and compete for something this season, whether a playoff spot or the division title, probably comes down to J.J. McCarthy and the health of the team. If the Vikings can stay relatively healthy, the team could get a boost of energy from McCarthy, especially if he improves and is able to deliver in key moments like he did against the Lions. But McCarthy has to fulfill his end of the bargain and continue to improve. A steadily improving McCarthy over the remainder of the season, along with a healthier team around him, could begin to gel. Still, they’ve have a tough slate ahead and can’t afford to lose more than a few games and still have a decent shot at the postseason, so they’ll need to bring the type of energy and urgency that they showed against the Lions each week the rest of the season.
Their next matchup against a hungry and now healthy Ravens team, will be another big test.
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