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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.

49ers QB Mac Jones struggles against the Giants’ man coverage

The New York Giants have played the most man coverage in the NFL this season, which hasn’t exactly been a recipe for success. Their cornerbacks have struggled individually, and the overall pass defense has underperformed in coverage.

As PFF research has shown, man coverage tends to emphasize talent mismatches more than zone, as elite wide receivers consistently win against weaker cornerbacks, and the opposite holds true as well.

Given the current state of San Francisco’s offense, this may be one of the few matchups where the Giants actually find themselves on the favorable side of that equation.

With Jauan Jennings dealing with an injury and Ricky Pearsall also banged up, Kendrick Bourne has been the only 49ers receiver producing at even an average level in terms of separation — and even his results have been underwhelming against man coverage.

For 49ers quarterback Mac Jones, the results have been night and day depending on coverage type. Jones owns the worst EPA per play in the NFL against man coverage, but he ranks near the top of the league against zone.

The Giants’ defensive strength lies in their ability to generate pressure, ranking 10th in disruption rate leaguewide. Only Cam Ward has performed worse than Jones when pressured this season. So, altogether, this shapes up as a sneaky favorable matchup for New York.

I’ll be backing the Giants on the spread and alternate lines, as well as looking at 49ers team total unders, Mac Jones unders and same-game parlays that leverage the Giants’ ability to get to the quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks execute their downfield shots against the Commanders

One of the recurring PFF studies we often highlight in this space examines the impact of explosive plays on overall drive success.

As shown in the chart above, drives featuring at least one explosive play average nearly four more points than those without one.

Defending those explosive plays has been a major problem for Washington, which has allowed the third-highest explosive pass rate this season. Opposing offenses have attacked them deep — the Commanders have faced the fifth-highest average depth of target — and have found consistent success doing so.

If not for Drake Maye’s historic deep-passing success, we’d be talking about Sam Darnold’s own remarkable deep efficiency — his current Deep EPA would have ranked first in the league through eight weeks last season. Darnold and the Seahawks have built an offense centered on play-action deep shots, and this Washington defense, which struggles against the run and continues to allow explosive plays, presents a prime matchup for him to exploit.

I’ll be targeting Darnold overs, Seattle team totals and same-game parlays built around his efficiency through the air.