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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

Indianapolis Colts -9.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and how this matchup is priced, laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.

Here we have our handy chart, courtesy of Timo Riske, highlighting team performance.

No matter which metric you choose, the story remains the same: the Colts’ offense has been the NFL’s best this season — particularly on a drive-by-drive basis — where they’ve been historically good through eight games, averaging 3.46 points per drive. Their defense, meanwhile, is slightly below average.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have struggled defensively by nearly every measure while fielding an offense that’s been about league average. There’s a clear gap between these two teams in overall quality. While the market implies the Colts are roughly 3.5 to 4 points better, a spread of 3 or fewer points makes that distinction somewhat less meaningful.

Still, the separation is real. Given how efficient the Colts’ offense has been, this matchup sets up favorably for Indianapolis — and there’s good reason to believe they can win this game with margin.

Matchup Angle

From a schematic standpoint, the Steelers have played the second-most man coverage in the NFL despite having three cornerbacks who rank among the league’s bottom 30 in separation prevention.

And while Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has been terrific against zone coverage, his numbers versus man look even better — nearly 0.5 EPA per play, placing him firmly in the top tier of quarterbacks against that coverage type.

As we often note, man coverage tends to highlight individual talent more than zone, and the Colts hold a significant advantage over the Steelers’ cornerbacks in that regard. All three of Pittsburgh’s corners rank among the NFL’s bottom 30 in separation prevention.

The Colts’ wide receivers have absolutely dominated man coverage this season, too, with Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. all performing well above average in both separation and yards per route run.

And if you needed another angle on this matchup advantage, the Steelers’ secondary ranks last in perfect-coverage rate — a reflection of the same weaknesses mentioned above.

Jones has been dominant on plays featuring coverage breakdowns, producing nearly 0.5 EPA per play. So, the Colts should be able to exploit this secondary with ease.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers have operated one of the league’s more vanilla offenses, with Aaron Rodgers posting a shallow average depth of target and attempting the most quick passes in the NFL. The Colts, however, have forced the third-fewest quick attempts and defended them at a top-10 level, both in terms of EPA and success rate.

Against an Indianapolis defense that grades middle of the pack overall, there’s nothing in this matchup to suggest Pittsburgh can exceed its usual offensive output.

With the Colts’ offense primed for success — and that’s without even mentioning their strong run-game advantage — this sets up as a spot to attack alternate lines. Indianapolis has multiple paths to points and a legitimate chance to win this one comfortably.