The New York Giants are coming off of a rough five quarters of defensive football to say the least. Week 9 gives the Giants a chance to add a game in the win column when they return home to face the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers shouldn’t be taken lightly, but they aren’t the juggernaut they’ve been in the past. Certain players getting older, as well as some key injuries, have weakened a team that has the potential to be formidable. That makes this a much-needed break in a string of tough games for the Giants.
The Giants’ defense — and secondary in particular — has been ravaged by injuries over the last two weeks. Can they overcome those injuries against San Francisco?
The X’s and O’s
Kyle Shanahan’s scheme is pretty familiar by now. He, along with Sean McVay at the rival Los Angeles Rams, have helped create the foundation for what I’ll call “The New West Coast Offense”. Though I should also note that they have very different approaches to a similar result.
The 49ers’ offense makes heavy use of condensed formations, with the entire formation (even wide receivers) fitting between the numbers on almost every play. They also make heavy use of 21 (two running back) and 12 (two tight end) personnel packages. It gives them the look of a run-heavy power offense, but Shanahan is an advocate of the mantra “go heavy to throw, light to run”.
His use of heavy, condensed formations is designed to manipulate defenses into base, or heavy nickel, personnel packages, then throwing the ball. Shanahan capitalizes on the run heavy looks by frequently incorporating pre-snap motion and run-action play fakes. The combination of condensed formations, play-action, and route design serve to create safe throws and run-after-catch opportunities.
Furthermore, the use of pre-snap motion helps to create misdirection and slow down the defense as well as gives players a flying start at the snap. That can either let the quarterback get the ball in their hands with a head of steam, or allow blockers to beat defenders to the point of attack.
San Francisco’s blocking scheme is similarly sophisticated. They seem to be at their best in zone concepts, but also frequently use pulling blockers. The 9ers’ use of pullers — often with multiple linemen pulling on the same play — is designed to change the math at the point of attack. Getting a numbers advantage on the play side is a potent advantage, that can lead to big plays when it works.
The Houston Texans held the 49ers to just 15 points last week. And as with the Giants’ Thursday Night game against the Philadelphia Eagles, I would strongly recommend going to school on what worked for the Texans.
The good news here is that the Giants and Texans have several high level similarities in their defenses.
To start, the two teams play nearly identical rates of middle of field open (MOFO) and middle of field closed (MOFC) coverages. The two teams also play very similar rates of Cover 4 shells. Finally, the Giants and Texans also have similarly athletic defensive fronts.
EDGE Will Anderson Jr. is one of the very few pass rushers capable of matching Abdul Carter’s quick pressure rate. Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux also have similar blends of power and speed around the edge as Danielle Hunter.
The Texans’ speed up front allowed them to knife into the 9ers’ backfield, beating their pulling blockers to their landmarks.
And while the Texans used varied coverage schemes, they tended to use more Cover 4 shells with pattern matching rules in neutral situations. In other words, they kept a top on the 9ers’ offense with zone coverage, before resolving to mor man coverage after the schemed traffic subsided.
It’s a brand of coverage that demands communication and discipline, but certainly proved effective in this case.
The big difference between the Giants and Texans’ coverage schemes is that the Giants use far more man coverage. The Giants call man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, where the Texans are 16th. Where the Texans tend to call Cover 3 or Cover 2 defenses, the Giants call Cover 1 and 2-Man shells.
There are, of course, personnel concerns due to injury, and I’ll get into those in the next section. But for now, the Giants might want to lean into their use of Cover 1 and 2-Man. First and foremost, Deonte Banks played well against the Eagles, building on that is a good idea for the Giants. On a similar note, simplifying coverages might be a good idea if they have to rely on seventh-round rookie Korie Black as a starter.
One advantage the Giants have over the Texans is that the Giants are actually one of the best all-out blitzing teams in the NFL. In fact they rank fifth in the league in EPA on Cover-0 plays.
It made sense to play coverage and look to contain Eagles and Broncos, rather than try to bring pressure. However, neither Mac Jones (knee) or Brock Purdy (toe) have the same kind of scrambling or rushing ability as Jalen Hurts or Bo Nix. So with that in mind, it might make sense to attack the 49ers’ offense with aggressive blitzes.
Related
The Jimmies and Joes
This might be THE question for the two teams: Who’s going to play?
Both the Giants and 49ers have been ravaged by injuries this year.
Both of San Francisco’s quarterbacks are injured, with Brock Purdy suffering — then aggravated — a toe injury and Mac Jones playing through a knee injury. They’ve also been without receivers Brandon Ayuk and Ricky Pearsall.
The Giants, meanwhile, could be without CBs Paulson Adebo (knee), Cor’Dale Flott (concussion), and Art Green (hamstring), as well as safety Jevon Holland (knee) and DL/edge Chauncey Golston (neck).
As mentioned above, the players available will likely determine how the Giants structure their defense against the 49ers. The Texans made heavy use of “big nickel” three-safety sets against the 49ers, and the Giants will likely do the same. However they could be forced to rely on Raheem Layne as their third safety, with Dane Belton starting in Holland limited by his knee injury.
Adebo and Flott are more adept at zone coverage than Deonte Banks, and their absence could limit how the Giants are able to disguise their coverages. That, in turn, could make the Giants more susceptible to route concepts designed to create separation against man coverage.
Ultimately, the Giants will be relying on their defensive front and blitz packages to disrupt San Francisco’s offense before they can attack the weakened secondary.
The good news here is the speed of the Giants’ edge defenders and the fact that the 49ers’ pass protection has taken a step back. Their offensive scheme has allowed the available quarterback to get the ball out in time to limit sacks, but their offensive line only ranks 20th in pass block win rate (for reference, the Giants are 13th). The Giants’ speed off the line of scrimmage can force the 49ers to rush or throw shorter than they’d prefer, allowing the second and third level players to rally to the ball.
Another bit of good news is that the 49ers have been among the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to running the ball. Their offensive line ranks 27th in run block win rate and they’ve averaged just 89.4 yards on the ground (3rd worst), -18.83 EPA (also 3rd worst), and just 3.4 yards per attempt (worst).
The Giants’ run defense was simply atrocious against the Philadelphia Eagles, but this might be the best opportunity they have this season to “get right” on the ground. Doing so would force San Francisco into more passing situations, giving the pass rush that many more opportunities to get after the quarterback. The Giants will likely need their front seven to take over the game to take the pressure off their depleted secondary, not to mention their depleted offense.
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